Tropical Storm Franklin forms
Tropical Storm Franklin, the sixth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, formed this morning in the open Atlantic north of Bermuda. The usual date of formation for the 6th storm of the year is September 8, so we are well ahead of climatology. However, the usual date for the first hurricane of the season is August 10, and we still have not had a hurricane yet this year. All six of this year's storms have been tropical storms, making 2011 the first season since 2002 when that has occurred. Franklin is headed eastwards out sea, away from any land areas, and does not have long to live.
Figure 1. Noon satellite photo of Invest 94L, showing the well-defined swirl of its low-level circulation.
94L
A low pressure system near 27°N 60°W, about 450 miles southeast of Bermuda, has developed a well-defined surface circulation, as seen on visible satellite images. However, this system, Invest 94L, has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to its west being injected into its core by moderate wind shear of about 10 knots. The latest SHIPS model forecast is showing shear remaining in the moderate range and the atmosphere moistening in the vicinity of 94L over the next three days, which may allow the system to build enough heavy thunderstorms to become a tropical depression. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. I'd put these odds higher, at 50%, given 94L's well-defined surface circulation. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L, with the storm making its closest pass on Monday. 94L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.
92L
An African wave near 20°N 54°W, about 600 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, Invest 92L, has only modest amount of heavy thunderstorm and is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. An ASCAT pass from 9:49 am EDT this morning showed no surface circulation and only a slight wind shift associated with 92L. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear near 10 knots affecting 92L.
Forecast for 92L
Light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which may allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. A west-northwest to northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should bring the storm close to Bermuda on Tuesday. 92L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.
93L
The disturbance Invest 93L, located near 12°N 35°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, has fallen apart over the past day. Recent visible satellite loops show almost no heavy thunderstorms and very little spin to the system. Dry air to the west and north, combined with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, have significantly disrupted 93L. The latest 06Z runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models do not show development of 93L, and neither do the latest 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models. NHC has reduced their odds of development of 93L to 10%. The system should find itself in an environment with lower wind shear on Sunday, and may be able to begin organizing again then. The storm should move through the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday or Wednesday.
Next post
I'll have a new post by 2pm Sunday.
Jeff Masters
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ok cool
Here's my thoughts:
94L ~100%
92L 50%
93L 10%
If mentioned, the AOI North of PR should be at 20%.
Along with that, (sighs) cue the trolls.
See post 593. Great minds think alike? ;)
94L
It's in an area that makes me cringe. If it does indeed start to form...I don't see anything really stopping it from intensifying quite a bit.
i this look at wind shear map 93L is heading right for 5kt of wind shear
Cool lol.
And hot waters taz, ripe for development.
yup
They're naming things that shouldn't be named.
I guess they want to make their predictions work out....
it would be this N of PR if it froms
and note we dont have 96L yet but we are talking about may be haveing 96L soon
Part of 94L which split off and is further south, and slightly to the west.
am hiding from you
Which of the six named storms should not have been named?
good image of Emily splitting into two systems, what's the name for that? how's about the P451
LOL
Thanks! I dont blog much because I'm 17, busy with school and I've been reading 'The Grapes of Wrath' for my AP Literature class. I've been meaning to ask a met on here how they got their met degree, maybe I'll mail Dr. Masters in a minute on how.
Are you good at Math, if so then you are off to a good start. If not you will have to claw your way to the degree through shear determination like I have to.
where still early in the game we sould see things really pick up soon
It's mother nature. She likes to vary from time to time, just for fun.
I agree, quite exciting...one of these might end up as my avatar next year.
Go to a university with the degree? Lol
I'm 'okay', Ive never taken any AP math classes, and I maintain a B average in Math.. and I wont be taking pre-calc this year. I've been considering other paths too, but meteorology is the most that appeals to me, but I've been considering political science.
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 132200
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27.9N 61.6W TO 30.7N 65.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 27N60W AT 13/2100Z,
ABOUT 370NM SE OF BERMUDA MOVING WNW AT 11KT. SATELLITE LOOPS
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF LESSER WIND SHEAR AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 82F TO 84F, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 13/1745Z IS T1.5.
THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
TOMORROW AT 14/1800Z.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE BY 142200Z.//
LOL, well not ask them how they got it but.. what it was like, what can I expect in terms of the math, what should I study for, ect, ect.
Wow me and you must share brainwaves, I debated between political science and met school my entire Junior year of HS. Eventually I chose met school, got accepted to everywhere I applied to. I took pre-calc honors and got a B, but they are making me redo it in college anyways...go figure.
2011 could rival 2005 in terms of number of storms, but i doubt it will rival the 15 hurricanes of 2005
There's no question that this year's early season has been active, and we have a few candidates already for the next 3 or so names, but I really can't see us getting overly close to 28. I mean, 2005 didn't like 'just' break the record, it blitzed it. I do however think that this year may beat the 19 we got last year.
will find out in a few
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