Tropical Storm Franklin forms
Tropical Storm Franklin, the sixth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, formed this morning in the open Atlantic north of Bermuda. The usual date of formation for the 6th storm of the year is September 8, so we are well ahead of climatology. However, the usual date for the first hurricane of the season is August 10, and we still have not had a hurricane yet this year. All six of this year's storms have been tropical storms, making 2011 the first season since 2002 when that has occurred. Franklin is headed eastwards out sea, away from any land areas, and does not have long to live.
Figure 1. Noon satellite photo of Invest 94L, showing the well-defined swirl of its low-level circulation.
94L
A low pressure system near 27°N 60°W, about 450 miles southeast of Bermuda, has developed a well-defined surface circulation, as seen on visible satellite images. However, this system, Invest 94L, has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to its west being injected into its core by moderate wind shear of about 10 knots. The latest SHIPS model forecast is showing shear remaining in the moderate range and the atmosphere moistening in the vicinity of 94L over the next three days, which may allow the system to build enough heavy thunderstorms to become a tropical depression. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. I'd put these odds higher, at 50%, given 94L's well-defined surface circulation. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L, with the storm making its closest pass on Monday. 94L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.
92L
An African wave near 20°N 54°W, about 600 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, Invest 92L, has only modest amount of heavy thunderstorm and is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. An ASCAT pass from 9:49 am EDT this morning showed no surface circulation and only a slight wind shift associated with 92L. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear near 10 knots affecting 92L.
Forecast for 92L
Light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which may allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. A west-northwest to northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should bring the storm close to Bermuda on Tuesday. 92L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.
93L
The disturbance Invest 93L, located near 12°N 35°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, has fallen apart over the past day. Recent visible satellite loops show almost no heavy thunderstorms and very little spin to the system. Dry air to the west and north, combined with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, have significantly disrupted 93L. The latest 06Z runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models do not show development of 93L, and neither do the latest 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models. NHC has reduced their odds of development of 93L to 10%. The system should find itself in an environment with lower wind shear on Sunday, and may be able to begin organizing again then. The storm should move through the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday or Wednesday.
Next post
I'll have a new post by 2pm Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Exactly.
My grandparents lived in Punta Gorda, just about a hundred yards from Charlotte Harbor. Luckily they were visiting my family in Raleigh at the tim Charley hit. Lets just say whatever was left of their house.... was not worth them going back to. Stayed in NC, sold the land in Punta Gorda and bulldozed what was left of the house.
I have never been through it myself, but dont wish that on anyone. Especially knowing they would not have made it through Charley alive had they not been visiting me in NC.
Oh my! This looks like a 2/3? is that a 950mb? (forgive me if I'm not seeing the numbers right) On top of Houston?
94L
Link
Try this. Click on the loop of your choice.
Link
Well, I didn't name names for a reason, because some here clearly do wish hurricanes to hit for whatever reason. But, just so you know, I'm not accusing any one person, so if you don't think that way then don't worry about it.
I have thought the same thing sometimes, I'm sure many of these weak storms would have come and gone without being named just because we didn't have the ability and technology like we do now.
However, because we do have the ability now now, an active season is an active season. Its based on storm numbers not how impressive they are.
Try GHCC Interactive GOES East
Select animation, high res and click on the area interested.
hmmmmm heading toi fla /?
Hi aqua, I have an old equipment on my roof but is so old. I mark your page and as soon as I can, will be ordering some new equipment from you. Thank you. So many years in here and I didn't know.
IMO, 93L should be deactivated. There is basically nothing left of it.
Umm, let's have GFS rethink it. That's straight to my house...
While I seriously want the rain, I do not want the winds.
yeah, I dont even think thats 93L that heads to FL..93L looks to head west while this a new system the NOGAPS is forecasting after 93L
I agree. But I have always thought the "averages" are basically worthless, especially for tropical storms. I wish there was a way to find out how many (on average) storms were missed "back in the day" each season. I'd have to guess atleast 1-2 a year. Maybe more in a season like this one. Oh well, no way to ever find out so gotta make due with what we do know I guess.
No, dont! it still have a chance!
Unfortunately, they do. When a hurricane season, like this one, has failed to do x by y-date, people in this blog have to think up an example that completely reassures them they will still get the actvity they crave. After July, no one made comparison to a year like 1997, which had a very active early season then fell apart. That's because no one on here wants to think about those inactive seasons. They want hurricanes.
quoting
67. CybrTeddy 5:18 PM GMT on August 13, 2011 +0
12z GFS shows 93L developing into a potent tropical cyclone in the Caribbean by Thursday, shows it as a hurricane hitting the Yucatan by the 21st. I think that if 93L develops it will be Wednesday or Thursday.
The highs will shifted the system to TX-LA ,landfall by the 24th,,,,
Well actually, the new averages are based on more recent enough years to where that isn't a problem, the current averages don't include the older years. I believe its from 1990 onward now.
Blog update:
Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, August 13th, with Video
Very interesting, did not know that. Makes sense though and I am glad they have updated the numbers.
+100
Last year (excluding Alex, he was an outlier) the conditions were even worse up until this point. There were only weak, wimpy storms up until this date last year, including TD2, Bonnie, Colin, and TD5. Not until August 21 with Danielle did things start to ramp up. This year has been basically the same, except with twice as many named storms.. This season will ramp up later in August like usual..
Were u here last year? Forgive my forgetful me if u were.... last year we had a few really good ones like this.... including a few near misses. Unfortunately we also had some weird hits, like the one up in Nova Scotia.... I'd love to see another out to sea year, but I keep looking at the pattern that's setting up and having, as the NHC would say, "low confidence" in that as a possible outcome...
Pple also sometimes forget Andrew was the only major hurricane that season. Not to mention the only landfalling storm in the basin. Yet I bet if the general public was asked to say whether 1992 was a busy season for the ATL, they'd say it was busy....
Thanks for the update.
Direct from the NHC website;
Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
From NHC glossary:
Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
great update Levi..I was speaking of 92L in the last blog because it looks like the Azore High is being pushed further west which would mean a further west track for 92L..how far do you think the Azore High would push 92L to the west..Bermuda or beyond?
The averages of which Dr. Masters wrote are satellite era averages (1966-2009).
Thanks, that was perfect.
Probably around Bermuda. That is already farther west than it looked like it was going to move yesterday, though I mentioned that the high was building westward, as you mentioned, and should bring it up near Bermuda as it recurves.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS ON A DEVELOPING TREND...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.
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