Tropical Storm Franklin forms
Tropical Storm Franklin, the sixth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, formed this morning in the open Atlantic north of Bermuda. The usual date of formation for the 6th storm of the year is September 8, so we are well ahead of climatology. However, the usual date for the first hurricane of the season is August 10, and we still have not had a hurricane yet this year. All six of this year's storms have been tropical storms, making 2011 the first season since 2002 when that has occurred. Franklin is headed eastwards out sea, away from any land areas, and does not have long to live.
Figure 1. Noon satellite photo of Invest 94L, showing the well-defined swirl of its low-level circulation.
94L
A low pressure system near 27°N 60°W, about 450 miles southeast of Bermuda, has developed a well-defined surface circulation, as seen on visible satellite images. However, this system, Invest 94L, has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to its west being injected into its core by moderate wind shear of about 10 knots. The latest SHIPS model forecast is showing shear remaining in the moderate range and the atmosphere moistening in the vicinity of 94L over the next three days, which may allow the system to build enough heavy thunderstorms to become a tropical depression. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. I'd put these odds higher, at 50%, given 94L's well-defined surface circulation. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L, with the storm making its closest pass on Monday. 94L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.
92L
An African wave near 20°N 54°W, about 600 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, Invest 92L, has only modest amount of heavy thunderstorm and is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. An ASCAT pass from 9:49 am EDT this morning showed no surface circulation and only a slight wind shift associated with 92L. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear near 10 knots affecting 92L.
Forecast for 92L
Light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which may allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. A west-northwest to northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should bring the storm close to Bermuda on Tuesday. 92L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.
93L
The disturbance Invest 93L, located near 12°N 35°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, has fallen apart over the past day. Recent visible satellite loops show almost no heavy thunderstorms and very little spin to the system. Dry air to the west and north, combined with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, have significantly disrupted 93L. The latest 06Z runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models do not show development of 93L, and neither do the latest 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models. NHC has reduced their odds of development of 93L to 10%. The system should find itself in an environment with lower wind shear on Sunday, and may be able to begin organizing again then. The storm should move through the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday or Wednesday.
Next post
I'll have a new post by 2pm Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 — Blog Index
This year could be like 2010 with 36 days of continuous activity.
just saw that come on nhc when i wake up will there be a td8 u can tell me no one else will no im not stayin up till two tho
patrap is severly missed his grafics are great
Excellent analysis.
Thanks!
I wont remember much next w/e either...
Just get here....
:):))
Incredible video.
Think so.
Well, that promises to be interesting. Also we are heading to the heart of the season so those two at the same time should give us our first, second and so on... hurricane.
heheheh
Sure is was just Fresca? *G*
Model Name 0hr 24hr
AEMN 30.0 52.7
BAMD - 92.6
BAMM - 65.0
BAMS - 55.6
GFDL 21.1 55.2
HWRF 7.2 66.0
LBAR 0 70.8
LGEM 0 65.0
CMC 52.9 -
MRFO 24.8 -
NAM 40.9 -
NGPS 50.8 178.9
TVCN 0 76.7
XTRP 0 163.3
Sorry, by whacked I meant passing directly overhead, will use the word hit next time. I realize now that the terminology between these two are different.
Yea it is and just to depressing to continue reading any further here is the link for the outlook for the next 3 months
Link
This just isnt going to be enough
Sorry Texas really hope this gets better for ya'll
i agree we do need to be cautious
+100 lol
LOL
+1
We have seen this time and time again. They come off the continent in the early part of the season growling and within 3 days just a whimper. 93L had lots going against it including shear early on, being trapped in the monsoon trough, a poor structure aloft and below climo instability in the Atlantic.
It's down but not necessarily out. I never thought it would do much before close to 55W which is what I have often referred to as the "sweet spot" for weak systems. Who knows if it will survive to take a shot near 55 but that is when I will take a second look at it.
Mid next week is when I expect to see the action pick up.
A lot of that purple area needs 20-25 inches or more.
Video of the collapse in indy.
Need something like tropical storm Nicole(2010).
I tried the new site but couldn't find what I was looking for. However, I am tethering and have a very slow connection, which isn't helping.
tropics are not quiet
Depends on your point of view. Weak activity out in the shipping lanes meets my definition of quiet. North sea gales are twice as dangerous as what we have out there now.
that still dos not make the tropics quiet
I've been praying for another tele-Hermine (9/8/10). Less than one day of rain but 15".
Nothing in the epac seems to want to spin east so far.
White flag :-) Catch you tomorrow.
If anyone went off early, I would report that post, If it's is verified, that i have checked then no action would be needed.
The ground has been so dry throughout southeast Texas, and especially the western half of southeast Texas, that any fairly heavy rain simply runs off, just like in the desert.
On my way up to north Texas yesterday evening I observed that almost any field that had horses or cattle had essentially no grass. It has pretty much all been eaten all the way down.
I saw one field with one of those big walking irrigaters. It was being used, and as far as I can tell he field was not planted with anything in particular. The only thing I can figure is that it was being used to grow grass.
Link
Stage collapse at Indiana State Fairgrounds, many injured. Hospitals full.
TECHNICAL RESCUE
08/13/11 21:45 (INDIANAPOLIS - OPS1) UPDATE: COMMAND/INCIDENT COMMANDER REQUESTING EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT - STILL DOZENS CRITICALLY INJURED. REQUEST MORE MEDICS TO SCENE [IND065]
TECHNICAL RESCUE
08/13/11 21:06 (INDIANAPOLIS - OPS1) UPDATE: COMMAND/INCIDENT COMMANDER REQUESTING TAC7 FOR MASS CASUALTY. COMMAND/INCIDENT COMMANDER REQUESTING CORONER FOR 2 DEAD ON ARRIVAL/DECEASED. [IND065]
TECHNICAL RESCUE
08/13/11 20:57 (INDIANAPOLIS - OPS1) UPDATE:GRANDSTAND AT INDIANA STATE FAIRGROUNDS HAS COLLAPSED DUE TO STORM WINDS. COMMAND/INCIDENT COMMANDER REQUEST MORE MEDICS. [IND065]
TECHNICAL RESCUE
08/13/11 20:55 (INDIANAPOLIS - OPS1) CAR 1822 ON SCENE OF A GRANDSTAND THAT HAS COLLAPSED ON PEOPLE. REPORTING MULTIPLE INJURIES. [IND065]
Get used to that new site, the old site will be gone in about 2 weeks.
Link
Here is a link of video of the collapse.
No models show development, but it's something to watch.
You guys need a weak tropical system with a lot of rain.
Starting at 13August_12amGMT and ending at 14August_12amGMT
The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection
TropicalDepression7's travel-speed was 8mph(12.9k/h) on a heading of 295.8degrees(NNE)
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TD.7 was headed toward passage over MyrtleBeach,SouthCarolina ~5days18hours from now
(though I wouldn't count on the storm to continue moving that slowly)
Copy&paste 25.8n57.2w, 26.4n58.3w, 27.1n59.4w, 27.4n60.5w-27.7n61.2w, bda, myr, 27.4n60.5w-33.624n78.956w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping (for 13August_6pmGMT)
Viewing: 1151 - 1201
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 — Blog Index