Tropical Storm Franklin forms
Tropical Storm Franklin, the sixth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, formed this morning in the open Atlantic north of Bermuda. The usual date of formation for the 6th storm of the year is September 8, so we are well ahead of climatology. However, the usual date for the first hurricane of the season is August 10, and we still have not had a hurricane yet this year. All six of this year's storms have been tropical storms, making 2011 the first season since 2002 when that has occurred. Franklin is headed eastwards out sea, away from any land areas, and does not have long to live.
Figure 1. Noon satellite photo of Invest 94L, showing the well-defined swirl of its low-level circulation.
94L
A low pressure system near 27°N 60°W, about 450 miles southeast of Bermuda, has developed a well-defined surface circulation, as seen on visible satellite images. However, this system, Invest 94L, has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to its west being injected into its core by moderate wind shear of about 10 knots. The latest SHIPS model forecast is showing shear remaining in the moderate range and the atmosphere moistening in the vicinity of 94L over the next three days, which may allow the system to build enough heavy thunderstorms to become a tropical depression. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. I'd put these odds higher, at 50%, given 94L's well-defined surface circulation. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L, with the storm making its closest pass on Monday. 94L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.
92L
An African wave near 20°N 54°W, about 600 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, Invest 92L, has only modest amount of heavy thunderstorm and is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. An ASCAT pass from 9:49 am EDT this morning showed no surface circulation and only a slight wind shift associated with 92L. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear near 10 knots affecting 92L.
Forecast for 92L
Light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which may allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. A west-northwest to northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should bring the storm close to Bermuda on Tuesday. 92L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.
93L
The disturbance Invest 93L, located near 12°N 35°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, has fallen apart over the past day. Recent visible satellite loops show almost no heavy thunderstorms and very little spin to the system. Dry air to the west and north, combined with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, have significantly disrupted 93L. The latest 06Z runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models do not show development of 93L, and neither do the latest 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models. NHC has reduced their odds of development of 93L to 10%. The system should find itself in an environment with lower wind shear on Sunday, and may be able to begin organizing again then. The storm should move through the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday or Wednesday.
Next post
I'll have a new post by 2pm Sunday.
Jeff Masters
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Starting at 13August_12amGMT and ending at 14August_12amGMT
The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection
TropicalDepression7's travel-speed was 8mph(12.9k/h) on a heading of 295.8degrees(NNE)
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TD.7 was headed toward passage over MyrtleBeach,SouthCarolina ~5days18hours from now
(though I wouldn't count on the storm to continue moving that slowly)
Copy&paste 25.8n57.2w, 26.4n58.3w, 27.1n59.4w, 27.4n60.5w-27.7n61.2w, bda, myr, 27.4n60.5w-33.624n78.956w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping (for 13August_6pmGMT)
Just the economics of this drought alone is staggering
Link
I don't wanna watch death!!!!
Link
Approaching $2 billion in losses in Texas. Don't know how much it is in the rest of the region.
11:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 13
Location: 27.9°N 61.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
WILL APPROACH BERMUDA ON SUNDAY AND PASS NEAR OR EAST OF BERMUDA
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT CENTRAL
CONVECTION AROUND A TIGHTLY-WOUND LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 30 KT...AND BASED ON THESE
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE SYSTEM AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVEN.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BREAK DOWN THE
WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWARD
BY 36 HR AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES BY 72 HR.
THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE FORECAST BEING
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFDL MODEL FORECASTS. A POTENTIAL
COMPLICATION TO THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHOWN BY THE UKMET MODEL...
WHICH FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO EXPERIENCE ERRATIC MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 48 HR AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ABOUT
400 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST. IF SUCH INTERACTION OCCURS...IT WOULD
DELAY THE APPROACH OF THE DEPRESSION TO BERMUDA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THESE SYSTEMS ARE HELPING TO
PRODUCE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS WELL AS
ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION...
A LARGE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ARE
APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION FROM THE EAST. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT 48 HR TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT...
THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM
WATER. AFTER 72 HR...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED SOMETIME ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 27.9N 61.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 28.6N 62.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 30.1N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 32.0N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 43.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
BERMUDA AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED SOMETIME ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 27.9N 61.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 28.6N 62.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 30.1N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 32.0N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 43.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
GFS is promising at least 10" for centex in ten days with 93L, and I believe it. The setup allowed Don to dive into the atl off Africa and make it here in 10 days more or less unimpeded, and nothing really has changed.
Expecting 93 to have a little bit more cowbell since it will be entering the carib in an upward MJO state.
1. You don't see death.
2. Don't click on the link
3. DUH!
11:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 13
Location: 40.5°N 51.8°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: ENE at 26 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
There's that Magic number again.....
NHC is predicting it will be.
93L is fighting to stay alive.
I agree.
On satellite, a low-level vortex descended over the Great Lakes region and hovered over Indiana as an intense convective complex during the disaster. WSJ reports four people killed.
5% is pretty long odds.....
Well that's a good sign, firing some convection.
A different view of the drought than you normally see, the Keetch-Bryam Drought Index, which shows moisture depletion in the soil (a proxy for wildfire risk). The worst conditions have a KBDI value of 700-800 (where 800 is total moisture depletion), and is represented as red on this map.
Yeah, Most likely it won't happen.
But as long as the chance is there, it can't be ruled out.
This is what you call quiet and nothing?????
Perhaps you can explain this.
Out with one, in with the other
I have had enough of his **** he's now on ignore. Just here to cause trouble.
At least you censored it...
INIT 14/0300Z 27.9N 61.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 28.6N 62.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 30.1N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 32.0N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 43.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
AFTER 72 HR...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.
Dont take this the wrong way but I'm ready for some REAL action.
Odd season thus far thats for sure. Might we get through 10 names without a cane?
Could actually see it getting to 65-70 at peak.
LOL
If we have this many so far, why not go for a record?
The conspiracy nuts that claim the insurance companies force the NHC to name things that usually would not be named are going to be pretty content.
??
Or 75 :P
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