Tropical Storm Franklin forms
Tropical Storm Franklin, the sixth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, formed this morning in the open Atlantic north of Bermuda. The usual date of formation for the 6th storm of the year is September 8, so we are well ahead of climatology. However, the usual date for the first hurricane of the season is August 10, and we still have not had a hurricane yet this year. All six of this year's storms have been tropical storms, making 2011 the first season since 2002 when that has occurred. Franklin is headed eastwards out sea, away from any land areas, and does not have long to live.
Figure 1. Noon satellite photo of Invest 94L, showing the well-defined swirl of its low-level circulation.
94L
A low pressure system near 27°N 60°W, about 450 miles southeast of Bermuda, has developed a well-defined surface circulation, as seen on visible satellite images. However, this system, Invest 94L, has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to its west being injected into its core by moderate wind shear of about 10 knots. The latest SHIPS model forecast is showing shear remaining in the moderate range and the atmosphere moistening in the vicinity of 94L over the next three days, which may allow the system to build enough heavy thunderstorms to become a tropical depression. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. I'd put these odds higher, at 50%, given 94L's well-defined surface circulation. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L, with the storm making its closest pass on Monday. 94L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.
92L
An African wave near 20°N 54°W, about 600 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, Invest 92L, has only modest amount of heavy thunderstorm and is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. An ASCAT pass from 9:49 am EDT this morning showed no surface circulation and only a slight wind shift associated with 92L. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear near 10 knots affecting 92L.
Forecast for 92L
Light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which may allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. A west-northwest to northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should bring the storm close to Bermuda on Tuesday. 92L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.
93L
The disturbance Invest 93L, located near 12°N 35°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, has fallen apart over the past day. Recent visible satellite loops show almost no heavy thunderstorms and very little spin to the system. Dry air to the west and north, combined with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, have significantly disrupted 93L. The latest 06Z runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models do not show development of 93L, and neither do the latest 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models. NHC has reduced their odds of development of 93L to 10%. The system should find itself in an environment with lower wind shear on Sunday, and may be able to begin organizing again then. The storm should move through the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday or Wednesday.
Next post
I'll have a new post by 2pm Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Or 75 :P
does 92L have a closed/lower level circulation yet? or is it just lacking convection over the coc?
For the sake of the blog please let that happen lol.
This is very interesting, can you share a link to more information. I would love to read some more.
I dunno, just looking at shortwave.
The use of engineered viruses has been tried for a variety of genetic disorders over the last decade or so in an attempt to deliver the correct gene, unfortunately with mixed results. It remains one of the more promising potential methods of curing my daughters disease, cystic fibrosis.
Its been active as seasonal predictions claimed but come on enough with these lame tropical storms in the middle of no were. Give me 100kt plus.
You want a major hurricane threatening land. How else can that be interpreted?
Which lady? or is that the one I put on ignore about 30mins ago.
The EURO is having a very good season so far in stark contrast to the GFS which in years past has developed a reputation of being very reliable.
Incredible how the lesser disturbances are the ones to develop this year.
I would have never imagined 93L being able to completely fall apart into nothing. Looked like a really decent candidate for a storm.
Thanks for sharing that Taz, your about 10mins late, LOL
True.
TD7/94L will become TS Gert. 92L would become Harvey.
Don't forget about Africa guys.
I think you mean Harvey from 92L, TD7 will apparently become Gert.
Gonna have to disagree with that. Euro has done very poorly in picking up cyclones this year. While it has shown vort associated with every cyclone it has failed and consistently failed to close a low or recognize a 50-60 mph TS. Its the CMC/NOGAPS/NAM that is picking them up this year. ECMWF didn't develop Bret, Cindy, Don and now TD7. What it has been good at is predicting a 72-120 hr track, it has done very good this year with that.
Indeed the ECMWF has been remarkable this season. It practically nailed Emily and 93L by showing very little development when the other models were calling for a significant system.
I wonder if the ECMWF seasonal hurricane numbers were released to the public.
Ten days seems to be the average gestation for any cyclone, for Texas...
Now that all the wxtechs are here, initially the wind in Indiana was reported as a microburst, or straight-line wind (I hate that term) and now angiest reports it was a vortex, which MBs/straight-lines aren't, but large dustdevils are.
I didn't see enough storm action for a cyclone... what really caused that stage knockdown?
Er.. won't TD 7 beat 92L to getting the name Gert?
Yes. My mistake
They seem to be coming and going so fast.
65 Roses. I have a good friend whose son has it. He's now 27. I pray for a cure.
Huh? I haven't commented on that situation...
Yeah. They're like that this year.
Anyways Good Night.
My daughter is 5, and to look at her you wouldn't know anything was wrong with her (unless you look close and see the surgery scars, and her feeding tube). Given the number of times that we weren't even sure she was going to come home from the hospital, that she is about to go into Kindergarten is a huuuge milestone.
That may be true, but those models have also been developing many other systems that never materialized. Especially the NOGAPS which is a pretty poor model to begin with.
It's better to have a model show development when it actually does come to fruition...
THIS SYSTEM.
Which starts on august 20, still a couple of days to go.
Still, remarkable to have 5-6 storms since July 17th, no matter if you think they're boring, lame, waste of names, ect.
Do you think there will be storms forming eventually in the MDR area,like they normally do in the August/September peak period?
September 10th is climatologically the peak of hurricane season.
+1000 lol!
I hadn't even thought of that one.
Yes you are right with it not picking up those systems but it could be as a result of them being relatively small and weak cyclones. The EURO did do well with Emily but the biggest issue with the GFS is that it has been overly aggressive with some of the invests which in the end struggled to strengthen. 93L is a perfect example. It's hard to understand why the GFS has been so excited with this system given its state over the last 2 days.
Later guys.
It has not been doing as well as some people are saying on here. I will give it credit for Emily, but that could be technically argued as Emily was clearly a tropical storm and the ECMWF showed nothing but a small area of vort.
Then we had Don, ECMWF did not develop that into a tropical cyclone. while Don was weak and very uneventfull that makes it no less of a tropical storm.
It got Cindy Ted btw, the ECMWF clearly showed for days and days that a low pressure area would develop well north of Bermuda. I give it full credit on Cindy.
It dropped the ball on Bret, which is probably why the NHC did. Never even recognized it.
Got Arlene but it wasn't until about 48 before it developed.
The truth is none of the models have been doing very good this year and picking up and consistently developing a tropical cyclone. The GFS has been spinning up ghosts and according to the ECMWF we should be at 2-0-0 right now and according to the NOGAPS&CMC we'd be at 9-3-1. Pick your choice.
to me though, i try to look at what is actually out there in terms of conditions and see whether or not in my amateur view could develop, not looking at models. the human brain is always the best computer model, particularly multiple human brains.
Well we must give Jack his jacket here ... and the NOGAPS was the 1st model to latch on to EMILY even before the wave emerged and the track somewhat verified.
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