Tropical Storm Franklin forms
Tropical Storm Franklin, the sixth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, formed this morning in the open Atlantic north of Bermuda. The usual date of formation for the 6th storm of the year is September 8, so we are well ahead of climatology. However, the usual date for the first hurricane of the season is August 10, and we still have not had a hurricane yet this year. All six of this year's storms have been tropical storms, making 2011 the first season since 2002 when that has occurred. Franklin is headed eastwards out sea, away from any land areas, and does not have long to live.
Figure 1. Noon satellite photo of Invest 94L, showing the well-defined swirl of its low-level circulation.
94L
A low pressure system near 27°N 60°W, about 450 miles southeast of Bermuda, has developed a well-defined surface circulation, as seen on visible satellite images. However, this system, Invest 94L, has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to its west being injected into its core by moderate wind shear of about 10 knots. The latest SHIPS model forecast is showing shear remaining in the moderate range and the atmosphere moistening in the vicinity of 94L over the next three days, which may allow the system to build enough heavy thunderstorms to become a tropical depression. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. I'd put these odds higher, at 50%, given 94L's well-defined surface circulation. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L, with the storm making its closest pass on Monday. 94L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.
92L
An African wave near 20°N 54°W, about 600 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, Invest 92L, has only modest amount of heavy thunderstorm and is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. An ASCAT pass from 9:49 am EDT this morning showed no surface circulation and only a slight wind shift associated with 92L. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear near 10 knots affecting 92L.
Forecast for 92L
Light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which may allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. A west-northwest to northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should bring the storm close to Bermuda on Tuesday. 92L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.
93L
The disturbance Invest 93L, located near 12°N 35°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, has fallen apart over the past day. Recent visible satellite loops show almost no heavy thunderstorms and very little spin to the system. Dry air to the west and north, combined with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, have significantly disrupted 93L. The latest 06Z runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models do not show development of 93L, and neither do the latest 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models. NHC has reduced their odds of development of 93L to 10%. The system should find itself in an environment with lower wind shear on Sunday, and may be able to begin organizing again then. The storm should move through the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday or Wednesday.
Next post
I'll have a new post by 2pm Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 — Blog Index
goodnight all
go in peace
...and this is for those who are interested in the interaction between the two systems.
19.0n54.0w has been re-evaluated&altered for 92L's_12amGMT_ATCF
20.3n54.4w, 21.6n56.6w are now the most recent positions
TD7's_12amGMT_ATCF
Starting at 13August_12amGMT and ending at 14August_12amGMT
The westernmost grouping of red dots represents TD7's path,
and the easternmost grouping represents 92L's path.
Copy&paste 25.8n57.2w, 26.4n58.3w, 27.1n59.4w, 27.4n60.5w, 27.7n61.2w, bda, gtd, 18.7n48.0w, 19.0n50.0w, 19.0n52.0w, 20.3n54.4w, 21.6n56.6w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping (for 13August_6pmGMT)
* Due to scaling issues -- and the greater importance of information about a TropicalCyclone vs an Invest -- there will be separate postings on TD.7 and on the TD.7&92L pair until the pair can be fitted onto the same closer-viewing scale map.
(Or more likely, 92L is absorbed by TD7)
Very good analysis... Either that means that we end up with a record low ACE or that September and October will give cyclogenesis of Cat. 4 CV hurricanes...
huh? the ecmwf shows it as storm hitting the yucatan at 240
00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP240.gif
2010 Boom
Exactly, just look how they just started cranking out majors after Colin. Alex was a one-off.. but TD2, Bonnie, TD5 and Colin where absolutely pathetic and everyone was like 'this seems to be the dance to 2010' ect, ect.. then as soon as Danielle came on scene, you know the rest.
Same, goodnight.
2005-248
1950-243
1893-231
1995-227
2004-224
1926-222
1933-213
1961-205
1955-199
1887/1998-182
1878-181
1999-177
2003-175
1964-170
1886/1996-166
1906-163
2010-160*
The Bermuda Triangle ??
That area north of PR seems to have a decent LLC, just what 92L is missing.
If 92L has a LLC it's open to the south.
the SAL is decreasing.
Where are all the rippers at? XD
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1009.5mb/ 32.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.4 3.0
RIP, lol
I am not surprised at all. Conditions are not going to get a whole lot better. There is a lot of dry sinking air to the W of 93L. It's going to have to live through that. It's only chance to develop will be in the extreme W Caribbean imo.
INDIANAPOLIS (AP)- Authorities say they have confirmed at least four deaths after a stage collapsed during a storm at the Indiana State Fair, where country act Sugarland was set to perform.
Strong winds caused the stage rigging for the outdoor concert to collapse, trapping and injuring concert-goers shortly before 9 p.m.
Link
It still does have a chance, but needs to start firing up more or else like bigwes6844 said, its best bet would be the Western Caribbean.
MARK
13.33N/46.73W
07L/TD/G/CX
MARK
27.13N/61.23W
POSS T.C.F.A.
92L/INV/XX
MARK
22.58N/57.24W
i posted new comment including 92l which is on the way to H name if seven gets G
2:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 14
Location: 28.2°N 62.0°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb
Noticed it too, very interesting. look at the low wind shear in the Caribbean, decreasing rapidly.
I still think this wave is going to have a hard time developing...but we all know how things can change in the tropics very quickly. :)
BTW, I'm reading in another tab the revision to deadliest and costliest from NHC. Most interesting "factoid": Katrina is listed as one of the top five in terms of pressure to strike the US coast. All the others are cat 5 storms; Katrina is cat 3. Just proof of how large a storm it was by comparison with the others [all of which were relatively small] and also suggests why that storm surge was so massive....
COR change timing to one time sets later
anyway I say this for 93L if convection continues to be on the increase then at the 7am TWO should be 10%, 1pm TWO 30% med, 8pm TWO 40%, 1am tomrrow TWO 40%/50%
Complete Update
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Viewing: 1401 - 1451
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 — Blog Index