Tropical Storm Franklin forms
Tropical Storm Franklin, the sixth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, formed this morning in the open Atlantic north of Bermuda. The usual date of formation for the 6th storm of the year is September 8, so we are well ahead of climatology. However, the usual date for the first hurricane of the season is August 10, and we still have not had a hurricane yet this year. All six of this year's storms have been tropical storms, making 2011 the first season since 2002 when that has occurred. Franklin is headed eastwards out sea, away from any land areas, and does not have long to live.
Figure 1. Noon satellite photo of Invest 94L, showing the well-defined swirl of its low-level circulation.
94L
A low pressure system near 27°N 60°W, about 450 miles southeast of Bermuda, has developed a well-defined surface circulation, as seen on visible satellite images. However, this system, Invest 94L, has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to its west being injected into its core by moderate wind shear of about 10 knots. The latest SHIPS model forecast is showing shear remaining in the moderate range and the atmosphere moistening in the vicinity of 94L over the next three days, which may allow the system to build enough heavy thunderstorms to become a tropical depression. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. I'd put these odds higher, at 50%, given 94L's well-defined surface circulation. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L, with the storm making its closest pass on Monday. 94L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.
92L
An African wave near 20°N 54°W, about 600 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, Invest 92L, has only modest amount of heavy thunderstorm and is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. An ASCAT pass from 9:49 am EDT this morning showed no surface circulation and only a slight wind shift associated with 92L. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear near 10 knots affecting 92L.
Forecast for 92L
Light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which may allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. A west-northwest to northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should bring the storm close to Bermuda on Tuesday. 92L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.
93L
The disturbance Invest 93L, located near 12°N 35°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, has fallen apart over the past day. Recent visible satellite loops show almost no heavy thunderstorms and very little spin to the system. Dry air to the west and north, combined with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, have significantly disrupted 93L. The latest 06Z runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models do not show development of 93L, and neither do the latest 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models. NHC has reduced their odds of development of 93L to 10%. The system should find itself in an environment with lower wind shear on Sunday, and may be able to begin organizing again then. The storm should move through the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday or Wednesday.
Next post
I'll have a new post by 2pm Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 — Blog Index
We still have to watch it very closely.
You bet.
Is that photoshop???
Very nice. Do you know where/when that was taken? Somewhere I've got pictures of a six-pack I watched one morning off of Miami Beach. The most I've seen is a nine-spout line off of Naples, but I didn't have a camera (and no more than three ever touched the water at once).
I would love to hear Reed Timer's audio if he were to come across something like that...
KT. THE WAVE LIES E OF AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY
INACTIVE AND HAS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE IN A
FEW DAYS.
They are gonna run out of crayons soon.
Excellent point. And if you haven't prepared already please do so. As Levi mentioned if it does develop in the Caribbean it will be a problem for someone.
Invest 92L swimming with da fishes!
Link
There is nothing that would indicate 94L is a hybrid system. Should have mostly warm-core characteristics.
There is the trailing entity southwest of 94L as well, which is actually a piece that split off of it.
Clones of Emily...or daughters...
She just keeps spitting them out...
Statistical Models
Dynamic Models
It is subtropical for the moment. It is cold core aloft.
200mb Vorticity (glob of orange centered directly over 94L):
Upper winds:
Trusting this is correct. Googled it "Multiple tornadoes over Albania in 1999. Photographed by Roberto Giudici."
Nice! Happy for y'all. :)
What was it P451 referred to her as when she was east of Florida.....Octo-mom?
Levi that's Franklin, not 94L.
As it is everywhere. I mentioned the global stability in the tropics a few weeks ago. It's rather strange, and something I have not seen since that product came out in 2001. It's interesting that it coincides with a 30-year record low global ACE, which makes sense, after all, but it brings up questions as to what modulates such things. The PDO has something to do with it, but the Atlantic in theory shouldn't suffer from stability in the Pacific.
I find it odd that it would be cold core, considering it split off from the warm-cored Emily. I guess the part that split off could have been more mid-upper level in nature. However, the NHC hasn't really hinted at it being anything other than tropical.
Wait, Gert is a female name? LOL XD
Notice that there is actually more than one blob on that map lol. Look up 94L's coordinates on SSD satellite loops and check again.
Baking continental land masses, focusing instability over land?
My bad lol.
I think so, its not even the peak of the season just yet.
Likely for the reason you mentioned. They are also staying very far away from subtropical possibilities with these messy systems in the central Atlantic, probably because of the vague definition that "subtropical" still has. Just because it came from old Emily doesn't mean that it can't lose warm-core characteristics just as easily as it got them. It weakened to nothing and then came back, under the influence of a cold-core upper low.
Wasn't Emily absorbed into a cold cored extra-tropical system? It's crazy to think that 94L is the spawn of Emily.
Possibly. They have been warm relative to the Pacific during the June-July periods of last year and this year. However, the Atlantic had no trouble being active last year, and it may have no trouble this year either, despite the supposedly stable atmosphere if the SSD product is accurate.
Surface Temperature Anomalies June-July 2010,2011:
I think 94L's split off is what the NAM has been developing...not 94L itself.
66Hrs:
That makes sense to me, lots and lots of trough splits this year.
Viewing: 151 - 201
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 — Blog Index