Tropical Storm Franklin forms
Tropical Storm Franklin, the sixth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, formed this morning in the open Atlantic north of Bermuda. The usual date of formation for the 6th storm of the year is September 8, so we are well ahead of climatology. However, the usual date for the first hurricane of the season is August 10, and we still have not had a hurricane yet this year. All six of this year's storms have been tropical storms, making 2011 the first season since 2002 when that has occurred. Franklin is headed eastwards out sea, away from any land areas, and does not have long to live.
Figure 1. Noon satellite photo of Invest 94L, showing the well-defined swirl of its low-level circulation.
94L
A low pressure system near 27°N 60°W, about 450 miles southeast of Bermuda, has developed a well-defined surface circulation, as seen on visible satellite images. However, this system, Invest 94L, has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to its west being injected into its core by moderate wind shear of about 10 knots. The latest SHIPS model forecast is showing shear remaining in the moderate range and the atmosphere moistening in the vicinity of 94L over the next three days, which may allow the system to build enough heavy thunderstorms to become a tropical depression. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. I'd put these odds higher, at 50%, given 94L's well-defined surface circulation. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L, with the storm making its closest pass on Monday. 94L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.
92L
An African wave near 20°N 54°W, about 600 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, Invest 92L, has only modest amount of heavy thunderstorm and is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. An ASCAT pass from 9:49 am EDT this morning showed no surface circulation and only a slight wind shift associated with 92L. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear near 10 knots affecting 92L.
Forecast for 92L
Light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which may allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. A west-northwest to northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should bring the storm close to Bermuda on Tuesday. 92L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.
93L
The disturbance Invest 93L, located near 12°N 35°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, has fallen apart over the past day. Recent visible satellite loops show almost no heavy thunderstorms and very little spin to the system. Dry air to the west and north, combined with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, have significantly disrupted 93L. The latest 06Z runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models do not show development of 93L, and neither do the latest 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models. NHC has reduced their odds of development of 93L to 10%. The system should find itself in an environment with lower wind shear on Sunday, and may be able to begin organizing again then. The storm should move through the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday or Wednesday.
Next post
I'll have a new post by 2pm Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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95L be came Franklin
95L is Franklin.
95L became Franklin.
Not always, but usually. That's why I said probably :P
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011
...FRANKLIN WEAKENING OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.7N 55.5W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST. FRANKLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE EAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND FRANKLIN SHOULD LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
I guess 96L could be that area just to the NW of Bermuda.
so does that mean the number wont be used again until we finish 96, 97, 98, 99, back to 90, etc?
que the trolls.
Not so fast.
Correct.
Franklin is weakening more or less as forecast.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BUOYS OBSERVATIONS A ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE AREA REVEAL AN AREAS OF NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS CONFINED FROM
11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS THE
TIGHTEST. ELSEWHERE E WINDS ARE IN THE RATHER LIGHT RANGE. THE
20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH MON AS THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO ATLC HIGH PRES WEAKENING AS TWO SURFACE
LOWS IMPINGE UPON IT FROM THE EAST...POSSIBLY AS TROPICAL
CYCLONES. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A TROPICAL
WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLC MOST LIKELY
TRACKS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS AGAIN SUGGEST BY LATEST MODEL
RUNS. THIS WILL HAVE INFLUENCE WIND AND SEAS CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE WAVE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED WITH
POSSIBLE LOW PRES EVOLVING ALONG IT.
TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
A 1013 MB LOW IS NEAR 19N54W MOVING WNW AT 20 KT. THE LOW IS ON
TRACK TO CLIP THE NE CORNER OF THE ZONE THIS EVENING AND INTO
EARLY SUN...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WILL CONTINUE
ON A NW PATH AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE
TURNING MORE TO THE N AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING OFF THE U.S. SE
COAST. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM
16N37W TO 10N35W STILL DOESN'T LOOK ANY BETTER DEFINED THAN LAST
NIGHT AND THIS MORNING AS IT STILL LACKS ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION. LATEST 12 UTC GFS MODEL RUN STILL LIKES TO TAKE
IT STRAIGHT W...AND DEVELOPS A LOW ON IT ON IT MON AFTERNOON
OR EVENING AS IT APPROACHES THE ZONE...AND TAKES IT THROUGH THE
ZONE DURING TUE. THE OTHER GLOBAL ARE MORE SUBTLE WITH THIS
FEATURE. THE NOGAPS STILL LIKES TO DEVELOP A LOW ON IT AS WELL.
THE 12 UTC GFS IS AGAIN QUITE FAST WITH THE TIMING IN TAKING
THE WAVE AND/OR LOW WESTWARD THAN THE UKMET AND IS GENERALLY IN
THE FASTER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE THAT DOES NOT CLOSE OFF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. WILL LEAN WITH A SLOWER SPEED...CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR
COMPARISONS...AND TO DETERMINE WHETHER A CONSENSUS IS BEING
INDICATED BY THEM.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...REGARDLESS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION...THE WIND FIELD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD EXPAND AS IT MOVES INTO THE ZONE DUE TO THE INCREASED
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE SW MIGRATING
SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.
SOUTHWEST N ATLC...
A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N68W WHILE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST.
THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE FAR NW
PORTION WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN N OF 29N
BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE WHILE WEAKENING
FURTHER THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WITH THIS SCENARIO...EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SE WATERS WHERE A WESTWARD MOVING
INVERTED TROUGH MAY GENERATE SOME FRESH WINDS. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS E OF
THE AREA NEAR 27N60W. IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE NE OF
THE AREA MON NIGHT AND LIFT N OF 31N INTO TUE MORNING AHEAD OF
A A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS HE NW WATERS TUE AND DISSIPATES
WED. A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILDS ALONG 29N WED AND THU BEHIND THIS
LOW PRES SYSTEM.
.
Hope not.
Starting at 12August_6pmGMT and ending at 13August_6pmGMT
The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection
TropicalStormFranklin's travel-speed was 21.8mph(35.1k/h) on a heading of 64.3degrees(ENE)
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Franklin was headed toward passage over Biaritz,France ~5days6hours from now
Copy&paste 35.5n64.7w-36.2n62.6w, 36.2n62.6w-37.4n60.8w, 37.4n60.8w-38.6n58.9w, 38.6n58.9w-39.4n56.7w, biq, 38.6n58.9w-43.5n1.53w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping (for 12August_12pmGMT)
The ONLY connection I was making with 2007 was that it also had several blink-and-you'll-miss tropical storms. -_-
I would think Gaston last year was a contender.
My god people are already trying to forecast next hurricane season? What has this blog come to lol.
Can't we just get through this season first please?
So? I already posted a forecast for the start of the 2013 season. But give it a look and see if you follow my reasoning before you dismiss it out of hand.
you missed out...FLOODMAN was selling em either yesterday or the day before...
may be at 11pm
My god really? Already trying to pinpoint a forecasted landfall for Andrea in 2013? People these days just want to move so fast lol.
Lee(2005) was only a tropical storm for 12 hours (though a depression for a few days)
i think i remember talk of a 6 hour storm before that, though
Arlene wasn't weak, she was a 70 mph storm at landfall. She killed 25 people. Don't judge a book by it's cover, it can kill ya...
literally.
LOL
Story of my life. Day late and a dollar short
At the rate this year is going I think your close, I would say 25 TDs, 22 TS, 9 HURR, 4 MJR HURR.
As stated at the end, that was tongue in cheek. I noticed that anomaly a few years ago, and thought it was interesting. The number of lists is arbitrary, and it just seems unlikely that such a thing could happen.
Hope it doesnt deside to pull a Wilma on us. Thats the last thing we need in the GOM or Carrebbean.
Are you thinking before or after it enters the Caribbean?
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