Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Viewing: 1988 - 1938

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1988. Grothar
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
reminds me as a warrant 4 how many really meant it lol)


At least they called you MR.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23755
1987. emguy
Thunderstorms should start to refire soon in 93L. In fact, there may be some evidence of cumulus formation near the mid level center of the system. We live in a day an age where everything is "high speed access" and "on demand", but development from a system like this just takes some time to occur. Much better organized that last night, which was an improvement from the night before. After tonights round of development, will be better organized again. Once it does get going, expect some fireworks though. It has a nice moisture envelope, and that dry air is not an issue. It also has some very nice support aloft. Side not, previous posters are correct, this system will progressively slow down it's forward speed as it moves further west. So I guess the key message for tonight would be to not expect rapid development, but once it does get going, it will probably be off to the races.

Side note, don't forget to keep your peripheral vision on the grandaughter of Emily. The piece of energy that split SW from what became Gert is now south of Cuba. It's got some vorticity and a small envelope. Highly favorable TCHP...So it's something else worth noting.
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1986. Grothar
img src="">
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23755
Close your eyes boys, 93L IS NAKED!!!
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1984. angiest

Quoting KoritheMan:


I should clarify -- as long as it is moving at 20 kt as it is now, it's not going to generate the kind of surface convergence needed for a closed surface circulation.

But as I told Laurie, conditions improve tomorrow, insofar as the forward speed is concerned. That weakness in the Atlantic ridge has effectively slackened the trade winds across the central Caribbean.

In short, I do not anticipate rapid development, but it certainly warrants monitoring.
If it weren't for the weak steering up ahead, it almost seems a little like Claudette.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting ackee:
I see most of the model are devloping something tropical NEAR carrb honestly base on how the models have been performing this seasons I really have to see something really devlop first to buy any of them ESP the GFS


Yes, but the difference here is that the Euro has been developing it. Previously, it hadn't developed much of anything.
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Quoting bluenosedave:


In my part of Canada (southern Nova Scotia) winter is no big deal, at least not recently. The lowest temp the last 3 years was -12 C. Snowfall might be 30 - 40 mm total for the whole season. We get a lot of cold, wet rain, though. And sometimes the nor'easters might as well be hurricanes for the damage that they do.

By golly, they don't make winters like they used to. ;-)


A cold rain is actually the worst aspect of winter to me. Ugh. So uncomfortable.
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1981. angiest

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Houston...
We have NO problem!
(good football game!)
Oingoboingo! (or whatever his name is)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1980. ackee
I see most of the model are devloping something tropical NEAR carrb honestly base on how the models have been performing this seasons I really have to see something really devlop first to buy any of them ESP the GFS
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Quoting Grothar:


That was funny!!!!
reminds me as a warrant 4 how many really meant it lol)
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Houston...
We have NO problem!
(good football game!)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I suspected as much. Crazy stuff.

Although I must say, I certainly don't envy Canadian winters. ;)


In my part of Canada (southern Nova Scotia) winter is no big deal, at least not recently. The lowest temp the last 3 years was -12 C. Snowfall might be 30 - 40 cm total for the whole season. We get a lot of cold rain, though. And sometimes the nor'easters might as well be hurricanes for the damage that they do.

By golly, they don't make winters like they used to. ;-)
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Good evening. WOW 93L to my untrained eye appears to have expanded itself into almost nothingness. Although could be due to said dry air, evening waning, etc. but it does seem to be moving at a pretty brisk pace. Maybe if it does slow as several have suggested it will "catch up" with itself... should be interesting to watch.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


not really the environment is not as bad a previously thought it has a ULAC over it, its pushing out the dry air out of the E Carib and filling with moist air, SAL is the same so all it really needs is the help from D-Max and to develop a decent LLC


I should clarify -- as long as it is moving at 20 kt as it is now, it's not going to generate the kind of surface convergence needed for a closed surface circulation.

But as I told Laurie, conditions improve tomorrow, insofar as the forward speed is concerned. That weakness in the Atlantic ridge has effectively slackened the trade winds across the central Caribbean.

In short, I do not anticipate rapid development, but it certainly warrants monitoring.
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1974. hcubed
Quoting angiest:
How many variants of stormtop are currently in circulation on this blog?


one too many...
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1973. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
asked this earlier but probably made to many ignore lists but is the blob of convection at 43w 12n part of the monsoon?


Part of the ITCZ.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36179
1972. Grothar
Quoting kmanislander:


Gotta keep the WU troops in line LOL


I have to admit, my head snapped back a bit. Reminds me of story. My friend and I attained the same grade a few days apart. When we met, we both saluted each other......but only one of us meant it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23755
I am out as well. Let's see if tomorrow morning delivers a renewed 93L
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Quoting bappit:
Houston public info statement from NWS:

THIS AFTERNOON BUSH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...IAH...REACHED 100 DEGREES. THIS MARKS THE 15TH CONSECUTIVE DAY THAT TEMPERATURES REACHED THE CENTURY MARK AND BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 14 SET ON JULY 19TH 1980.


And, to top that off, tomorrow could reach 102. That would tie the record for the day and also extend the current streak. We will be wiping our brow again tomorrow and using it to water our lawns. Again! sigh
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes, but that will prove difficult given the environment.


not really the environment is not as bad a previously thought it has a ULAC over it, its pushing out the dry air out of the E Carib and filling with moist air, SAL is the same so all it really needs is the help from D-Max and to develop a decent LLC
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Quoting Grothar:


That was funny!!!!


Gotta keep the WU troops in line LOL
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link

Dry air seems to be lessening in front of 93L though.

93 seems to have a D9 blade in front of it... this is the second strange 'square' display I've seen today.
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Quoting bluenosedave:


Ah yes, but it's lurking, man. Always lurking. Just a few months down the calendar.

Apparently, that's crippling weather for NZ's North Island. Similar to heavy snow in Georgia, for instance.


I suspected as much. Crazy stuff.

Although I must say, I certainly don't envy Canadian winters. ;)
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Well, I think I will say goodnight now and see what tomorrow brings with 93L. After all, Gustav did develop in the "dead zone". Lol


9 systems did in the past 30 years so there is that possibility LOL.

Just saw that surface map you posted. Not convinced there is a surface low other than a broad feature but they draw the maps !
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link

Dry air seems to be lessening in front of 93L though.


Yes, but the trade winds are still pretty fast in this area, as they usually are. Deceleration could occur tomorrow, though. We shall see.
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1962. Grothar
Quoting kmanislander:


Atttenhut !!


That was funny!!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23755
Quoting ackee:
I see NAM continue to spin 93L into a TD or TS I really dont see this devloping into any thing serious we are just looking for some rain from this in jamaica I think 93L is moving to fast to devlop further
It is expected to slow down in the next day or so.
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Quoting ackee:
I see NAM continue to spin 93L into a TD or TS I really dont see this devloping into any thing serious we are just looking for some rain from this in jamaica I think 93L is moving to fast to devlop further


Oh I believe it will develop ackee, it has 5 kt shear, hot waters, dry air doesn't seem to be much of a problem, it is also forecasted to slow down a bit.
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I was sleeping and that attenhut woke me up....

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
Quoting kmanislander:


That and time. If it can rebuild the deep convection then as the heat engine gets cranking the pressure will fall at the surface and develop the surface low pressure.I wouldn't expect this to happen for at least 24 to 48 hours and that time line takes it beyond 63W and into the historically unfavourable zone.

This is starting to look very much like waiting for the next window of opportunity to open up near 75W and beyond unless we get a burst of sustained activity tonight.
Well, I think I will say goodnight now and see what tomorrow brings with 93L. After all, Gustav did develop in the "dead zone". Lol
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1957. ackee
I see NAM continue to spin 93L into a TD or TS I really dont see this devloping into any thing serious we are just looking for some rain from this in jamaica I think 93L is moving to fast to devlop further
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes, but that will prove difficult given the environment.
Link

Dry air seems to be lessening in front of 93L though.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What does it need to reach the surface ? Sustained convection ?


That and time. If it can rebuild the deep convection then as the heat engine gets cranking the pressure will fall at the surface and develop the surface low pressure.I wouldn't expect this to happen for at least 24 to 48 hours and that time line takes it beyond 63W and into the historically unfavourable zone.

This is starting to look very much like waiting for the next window of opportunity to open up near 75W and beyond unless we get a burst of sustained activity tonight.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yuck. Don't want to think about winter just yet. :P


Ah yes, but it's lurking, man. Always lurking. Just a few months down the calendar.

Apparently, that's crippling weather for NZ's North Island. Similar to heavy snow in Georgia, for instance.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes, but that will prove difficult given the environment.
Thanks.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What does it need to reach the surface ? Sustained convection ?


Yes, but that will prove difficult given the environment.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Atttenhut !!
hehe same sense of humour))
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1949. msphar
93L looks to moving pretty fast and expanding to fill the Eastern Caribbean.
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Quoting HurricaneNewb:
Kman you look like an old Army captain i used to serve with hehe just saying. he was a great guy back in Frankfurt Germany


Atttenhut !!
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Quoting kmanislander:


93L is now near 13.2N and 61.5 W which is close to the coordinates you refer to. The spin you see is not at the surface.
What does it need to reach the surface ? Sustained convection ?
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Kman you look like an old Army captain i used to serve with hehe just saying. he was a great guy back in Frankfurt Germany
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Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


I was speaking of actual hits, not threats and of major storms, not weak storms.


You have a more valid point, then.
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1944. scott39
93L has an impressive naked look.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Agreed. 93L continues to bring surprises though. When I went to bed last night around 10 or 11 I never would have believed it would look so good this morning.


Well, I did say watch for what happens near 55W LOL
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Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


I genuinely hope no one locatged in the gulfcoast region gets a bad storm. No one needs it now.
No-one needs it anywhere. BTW, where are you located ?
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Quoting audreyritalillyLa44:
thanks for the info BAHAHURRICA. I will check that out. Seems ive heard something about storms opening trails ,or windows THAT OTHER STROMS follow. I WILL CHECK TO SEE IF THERES SOME VALIDITY TO THAT.


I can't hear you!!!!
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Quoting bluenosedave:
If anyone wants a brief diversion from 93L, here's what's been happening on the opposite side of the planet (more or less).

Link


Yuck. Don't want to think about winter just yet. :P
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Quoting stormpetrol:


I'm not sure, look at 13.2N/62.8W Link < I still think 93L might be the one to watch so far this 2011 season, I'm not turning my back til it gets north of 19/81 :) just saying...


93L is now near 13.2N and 61.5 W which is close to the coordinates you refer to. The spin you see is not at the surface.
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1938. nigel20
Quoting stormpetrol:


I'm not sure, look at 13.2N/62.8W Link < I still think 93L might be the one to watch so far this 2011 season, I'm not turning my back til it gets north of 19/81 :) just saying...

I think you are right.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.