Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


Ok, a little confused here..... Is this what they believe 93L will do?? I know it is far out but just wondering... might have to go buy some batteries :o)


Despite comments about how impressive 93L appears, it looks pretty feeble to me. The actual area of vorticity is small. The area of convection on the westward side makes it look bigger than it is and isn't part of the circulation, and it's going to run into dry air soon. Looks like another Don, if it even gets to that stage..
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Quoting Squid28:


Being on the coast, I am afraid to see what even a moderate TS would bring to our area now. The trees in this area were hammered by saltwater intrusion during Ike, had really not recovered and are now dying at an alarming rate from the drought. Add to that the fact that the overall economy stinks and a lot of folks are not cutting down the dead trees, needless to say it would be treemagedon if we had a good blow around here....


More wood to smoke
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Look at how well Vorticiy is now completely stacked at all levels with 93L in the past 12hrs!!!!
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Quoting Squid28:


Being on the coast, I am afraid to see what even a moderate TS would bring to our area now. The trees in this area were hammered by saltwater intrusion during Ike, had really not recovered and are now dying at an alarming rate from the drought. Add to that the fact that the overall economy stinks and a lot of folks are not cutting down the dead trees, needless to say it would be treemagedon if we had a good blow around here....


Thats a very good point and obs.
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Quoting Grothar:


Looks like the anarchists.
ohh crapppp dang anarchists, I told them to stay in there rooms!
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Quoting presslord:
Who's in charge here?!?!?!


Drought stricken gone bamboozle crack head minded Texans needing a damn storm
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I here Cancun is lovely this time of year.

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TropicalAnalystswx,
Actually gert may appear to not have any shear on her according to shear maps, but northerly shear is evident on satellite, This is the reason why Gert's convection is mostly on her southern semicircle... she might make it to 65 mph, though it appears she might be nearing her peak now...
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780. P451
Quoting Patrap:


The Guy with the White coat and pencil/pen Holder.


LOL. Is he the quack from Terminator?

Quoting presslord:
Very well, then...Carry on!!!


See my new avatar. Many posts have invoked this response from me today.

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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
About the Only way Texas gets the rainfall it desperately needs will be from a couple of tropical systems Unfortunately, most of this state needs 10 to 20 inches of rain just to get the Lakes some water. Day 67 here of over 100, Unreal. Just about 105 here, time for the outside animals to have a break and get some water.


Being on the coast, I am afraid to see what even a moderate TS would bring to our area now. The trees in this area were hammered by saltwater intrusion during Ike, had really not recovered and are now dying at an alarming rate from the drought. Add to that the fact that the overall economy stinks and a lot of folks are not cutting down the dead trees, needless to say it would be treemagedon if we had a good blow around here....
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Seriously, take a step back and look at everything. In the progression of a few hours you went from the "wait and see" approach, to all out hurricane.

A hurricane in 60 hours?

I'll have some nice Deutsch crow if it does that.



Where did i say a Hurricane.......NEVER did I......
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECM'WTF'..


ECMWF starting to show consistency, but can't be taken seriously yet.


Since that's what would be Irene....... Irony at it's best.

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I get a case a month with the Cheque, aspectre.

: )
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Maybe because they take the system to tropical storm status in 24 hours...



Agree that is not likely but, beyond 48hrs is possible.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



HOW can you say this when so many models are trending the same direction........I CERTAINLY DON'T AGREE with your thinking here, SORRY to disagree!


Seriously, take a step back and look at everything. In the progression of a few hours you went from the "wait and see" approach, to all out hurricane.

A hurricane in 60 hours?

I'll have some nice Deutsch crow if it does that.
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Larger Image
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772. P451
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Maybe because they take the system to tropical storm status in 24 hours...


Exactly.

They are acting as if 93L is a well organized and developed Tropical Depression in the perfect atmosphere conducive to steady intensification - starting RIGHT this moment.

They are basing their intensity forecasts off of that premise.

As we know this is not the real time situation.

So those forecasts are to be thrown away right from the start.

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Quoting TampaSpin:



HOW can you say this when so many models are trending the same direction........I CERTAINLY DON'T AGREE with your thinking here, SORRY to disagree!


Personally, I'm not too worried about the system, maybe if Texans are lucky it will take a more northerly path, but as of now, we have a track into Central America/Mexico.
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Quoting presslord:
Who's in charge here?!?!?!


93L, for the moment.
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Very well, then...Carry on!!!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
709 Patrap "The price of Fresca's by the case went up 2% in the last Hour"

Better stock up. At the rate of 2% per hour, the price will quadruple in 3days... and increase a thousand-fold in 15days.
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


Ok, a little confused here..... Is this what they believe 93L will do?? I know it is far out but just wondering... might have to go buy some batteries :o)
No, not at all.  I was just showing one historical storm from a similar location.  There are myriad other possibilities, and one is that it does nothing.
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Quoting presslord:
Who's in charge here?!?!?!


The Guy with the White coat and pencil/pen Holder.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129345
Quoting presslord:
Who's in charge here?!?!?!


Looks like the anarchists.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27063
This African wave look goods now, we will have to see how it looks tomorrow afternoon, after spending 24 hours over water. The GFS and ECMWF, known as the two most reliable models out there, both develop this system, and both have it affecting land. It will have to be watched closely, and considering it DOES have the model support, it should be tagged 97L soon.

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Quoting HoustonTxGal:
I thought I would never see myself wishing for a good size tropical storm or weak hurricane here in the Houston area but we need rain so bad! Lakes, streams and rivers are drying up, water restrictions all over the place, power grid maxed out... We need some relief!

About the Only way Texas gets the rainfall it desperately needs will be from a couple of tropical systems Unfortunately, most of this state needs 10 to 20 inches of rain just to get the Lakes some water. Day 67 here of over 100, Unreal. Just about 105 here, time for the outside animals to have a break and get some water.
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African wave.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Maybe because they take the system to tropical storm status in 24 hours...
And it doesn't have a surface circulation. I mean, I'm sure there's a good chance it'll continue to organize between now and this time tomorrow, but a tropical storm in that short amount of time...is unlikely in my point of view.

Crow me if I'm wrong though.
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Nice convection building over Africa behind the wave emerging off of Africa, which is behind 93L, which is currently moving into the Easter Caribbean.

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Who's in charge here?!?!?!
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758. P451
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


That just is no9t fair at all! We can't get a drop of the wet stuff and they have almost 8 inches of it... SHARE THE WEALTH NYC!! LOL


Sorry folks. We would send some your way if possible. Subways were messy today. Thankfully I can generally walk to where I need to go. What's a few miles in this city - nothing.

We'd also like to send you the 60s and 70s we've been having as a result of this nice early fall like system up here. I haven't used A/C for a week.

We just don't want any of your weather in return.

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Quoting RitaEvac:
It's so bad in TX it's done messed up our heads as if on crack cocaine...if a 200mph Cane was in the GOM we'd be wanting it to come here because of the rain and moisture in it, that's how bad this heat and drought has messed up our heads...




Sarcasm Flag:ON


I almost fell out of my nice Chair.......OMG!
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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



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Just looks and seems odd.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



HOW can you say this when so many models are trending the same direction........I CERTAINLY DON'T AGREE with your thinking here, SORRY to disagree!


Maybe because they take the system to tropical storm status in 24 hours...
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Quoting IKE:

Ah...okay....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhJIDETEVIQ


Just messing with you IKE. Somebody has to do it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27063
this is going to be fun
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Quoting P451:


That is actually the remnants of 92L which was torn/stretched apart.

yes the old 92L is south of Gert,but still 2 seperate tugging actions on 93L and convection by Cuba.They can be seen better on this loop.

Link
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Sure looks like the Visible loop is starting to show some tightening of the Screw with 93L.....Might be a fooler to many in this area including ME!
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It's so bad in TX it's done messed up our heads as if on crack cocaine...if a 200mph Cane was in the GOM we'd be wanting it to come here because of the rain and moisture in it, that's how bad this heat and drought has messed up our heads...




Sarcasm Flag:ON
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Thanx,,most likely a wu server burp.

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Quoting IKE:

That should take care of lowering gas prices.
remember when chavez told the big oil companies if they wanted to do business in venezuela things would have to change. wish our politicians would do the same
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Quoting angiest:

Ignore the intensity and this looks to have a similar track through this location (maybe a tad to the north):


Looks like there was some strong ridging in place at that time.  Any slightly northward component, over that stretch of water, could have a significant impact on final landfall of what, if anything, develops from 93L.


Ok, a little confused here..... Is this what they believe 93L will do?? I know it is far out but just wondering... might have to go buy some batteries :o)
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
18z Intensity

Take it with a grain of salt





HOW can you say this when so many models are trending the same direction........I CERTAINLY DON'T AGREE with your thinking here, SORRY to disagree!
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129345
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
18z Intensity

Take it with a grain of salt




Yeah, especially since they have the system up to tropical storm status in 24 hours or less.
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Quoting IKE:

Ah...okay....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhJIDETEVIQ


Good background music while blogin...
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Quoting IKE:
Holy Toledo!




Nah. I don't don't think it will be a threat to Toledo. LOL

OK, that was bad. Back to lurking.
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Good afternoon all.

Tropical Storm Gert hasn't strengthened much today, as it pulls away from the island of Bermuda. It isn't having any wind shear problems right now, with the protection of its ULAC. Dry air has been a periodic problem, but doesn't seem to be affecting the system at this time. Given that another 12-24 hours can be given to Gert for strengthening, I think it will peak just below hurricane status, at 70 MPH. However, it is very possible that Gert becomes a hurricane, which would make it the first of the season. But, being so tiny, just as we saw with Don, slight changes in the environment around the system could allow for rapid weakening.



Invest 93L isn't really surprising me right now, I knew it would flare up right about now. I see that most computer models bring 93L up to hurricane status, but one thing we have to take into consideration is that they have this as a tropical storm 24 hours from now, which is to say, highly unlikely. With the Eastern Caribbean being considered the "dead zone", I doubt this system will reach tropical storm status until it approaches Jamaica's longitude, if it even develops. And unless the system becomes strong once in the western Caribbean, it will likely move into Central America and then Mexico. We will have to see what wind shear and dry air look like in the western Caribbean, because if these two permit, the SSTs and TCHP values are definitely high enough to allow for a rapid increase in strength.

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Good morning!

Like a Phoenix arising from the ashes, 93L has been "Re-invested" by the NHC as an AOI (area of interest) and currently given a low 10% chance of near term development. As I mentioned previously, I believed it should not have been "de-invested" due to it's path and the environmental conditions ahead of it as it gives people in it's path a false sense of security that it's not a threat anymore. But, I don't set the conditions at the NHC for naming these AOI's.

Bottom line is, it is back and looking pretty formidable. The vanguard of 93L is pushing into the Windward Islands right now bringing squally conditions while at the same time, pushing that pesky dry air out of it's way. The actual invest is near 13.5N, 57W.

Development wise down the road is a bit dicey as it has been all along. It needs to get better organized before it enters the east central Caribbean, a traditional area of non-development. If not, then we should see some development as it nears Jamaica and the Caymans which does not bode well for the Yucatan and Cuba and I've said all along that GOM interests should be paying attention to this system.

TS Gert has the potential to become our first hurricane of the season, albeit minimal as it brushes by Bermuda which could use some of Gerts rains. Then, off to the hurricane graveyard of the North Atlantic dragging the raggedy 92L along with it.

Now, while we are all focused on what's happening close around us, we should be also monitoring what is coming off the African coast. Potential CONUS strike is down the road after another Caribbean possibility.

Dave quoted from Caribbean hurricane network
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 891
Quoting yonzabam:


And a one day record of 7.8 inches of rain in New York city, yesterday! Hope this isn't global warming.


That just is no9t fair at all! We can't get a drop of the wet stuff and they have almost 8 inches of it... SHARE THE WEALTH NYC!! LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.