Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting msgambler:
Too bad that not more heed the warnings. When told to leave then leave. Never a good idea to stay just so you can say you've been through one. Why? Someone may be saying you never made it through that one. Some of us have to stay because of the job but never wise to do so for a thrill.

What gets me is that FEMA then goes to where people were not supposed to be and leaves the places where people were also hit, have the evacuees as well, sitting waiting for the help. We had Katrina refugees still in gyms, was hit by Rita and the same people who had no water, etc., in Katrina were in the same boat again, three weeks later. Fema was in Lake Charles, which was to have been evacuated. Luckily, people around here shared what they had and made sure the evacuees did not go without. Okay, I vented. *G*

12Z CMC 144hrs



18Z GFS 150hrs



12Z ECMWF



I call that model agreement......

My first hurricane experience was Floyd, are at least that's the first one I can remember. I don't remember anything from Fran, Bertha, or Bonnie.

If you couldn't tell before I'm a Wilmington native.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Gustav : The wave moved through the Windward Islands on 23 August with a broad area of low pressure accompanied by disorganized shower activity.
The cyclone intensified over the warm water of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Gustav regained hurricane status late on 29 August, then became a Category 2 hurricane as it moved through the Cayman Islands early on 30 August. It rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane before it made landfall on the eastern coast of the Isle of Youth, Cuba, near 1800 UTC that day. Gustav reached a peak intensity of 135 kt as it made landfall in the Pinar del Rio province of western Cuba near 2200 UTC 30 August.



Do not underestimate any wave that enters the Caribbean even slightly organized at this time of year.

Good evening all. Will be interesting to see what developments 93L undergoes as it approaches 70 to 75 W in the upcoming couple of days.

Anyone post this yet?

Link

Quoting kmanislander:


Fairly soon

Yeah I was noticing a trend towards steering weakening...

Quoting presslord:



What did I miss?! Can one of you fine folks repost? mucho thankso

Ahhh.... nothing much...... just the Long Range GFS heading straight for your boat...... or is that a ship? LOL

Long Range GFS

Quoting angiest:

The doom is not coming from 93L...

Then where? None of the reliable models are predicting any major storms that would hold together during the next 7-10 days. Where is this storm that is going to bring doom to someone? What reliable model?

Quoting Patrap:

93L in Tune


..fer the Geriatric among us.

You confusin' the young uns' with the "good tunes".

should be may have best estimate appears to be best estimate.. the 11pm.. and damn i thought i was drunk

Hurricane Gustav Crosses Cuba



Key West WSR-88D

(KBYX)

Quoting twincomanche:
I have to sign off cause of business tomorrow but want to continue this when we get a chance. I have this thing about what's going on that I want to keep talking about til we get a hypotheses. (spelling) There's a reason why this weather ain't working like the models. I don't like models, I like observation however I have hope some day the models will work.

Fine by me. Take care.

Quoting superpete:


Good evening all. Will be interesting to see what developments 93L undergoes as it approaches 70 to 75 W in the upcoming couple of days.

It won't develop. Too many impediments for it to overcome.

Quoting msgambler:
You confusin' the young uns' with the "good tunes".

O I hope so.

: )

Im out to scout the Saints Friday night oppenents in the 4Qtr of MNF.

Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


Then where? None of the reliable models are predicting any major storms that would hold together during the next 7-10 days. Where is this storm that is going to bring doom to someone? What reliable model?

~Two weeks out on GFS and ECWMF.

Quoting angiest:

Yeah I was noticing a trend towards steering weakening...

The forecast steering from yesterday had a weakness over the Fla area with the Atl high to the East and another high over Texas to the West this Wed. and Thursday. This would promote a slowing in the forward speed and a pull up to the WNW followed by either a block by the Texas high causing a recurve over the NE GOM or a more Westerly track across the Yucatan. This is still a few days out so no call on this at the present time.

Forward speed should start to slow late tomorrow.

Quoting thelmores:


Ahhh.... nothing much...... just the Long Range GFS heading straight for your boat...... or is that a ship? LOL

Long Range GFS

eeewww...

Quoting cat6band:
stormwatcher....very well said. I love the fair weathered lurkers on here. Tomorrow if this thing blows up they'll jump right back on the band wagon...they remind me of really bad Saints fans...

Same thing I was thinking earlier. All day long I have seen, WOW 93L really taking off and now the same ones saying 93L dead and there was never any hope.

Zero circulation.

Whats up guys?

Quoting P451:
24 Hours, Enhanced IR Loop - From Rags, To Riches, Back to Rags Again.

as per 2011

aislin, I know what you mean. 2 days after the storm I left Al Port,AL with a truckload of MRE's and water I got off of the trucks at the firehouse to take to the neighborhood of my parents in Gulfport because no one was there yet to help them. I was stopped at the Hwy 49 exit by the MPs and asked where I was going and if I knew about the curfew. I told the where I as going and that I knew and where I was from and they told me to go straight there and don't stop for anyone except LEO or Military that I could be shot for the items in the back of the truck. I laughed and showed him my passenger seat and said "I won't go alone". Mind you this was 3am.

Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


It won't develop. Too many impediments for it to overcome.

Ummmmm, what are you looking at, I'm seeing 5 kt shear, and hot SSTs ahead of it. It's also taking care of the dry air.

Quoting JLPR2:
Zero circulation.

If I'm not mistaken, that would be too far west.  I don't think it has crossed the islands yet.

Quoting nigel20:
Whats up guys?

not much. september may hold a bit more action

Quoting presslord:


eeewww...

i second that EEEWWW

I said, DID ANYBODY SEE THIS???

Link below:
See Link:
Interesting Link:
Wow:


Link

Quoting P451:


Yup, I know it, was just pointing it out.

70W and beyond is where this may begin to organize.

It's why you can throw those intensity models many were excited about earlier out the window. The models have 93L intensifying steadily from this very moment forward. Not going to happen.

Given the system's history, lack of organization, lack of surface features, poor environment, unfavorable location (etc, etc, etc) it was quite clear today's flareup was just that: A flareup.

I completely agree.

Quoting JLPR2:
Zero circulation.

At the surface yes, but the higher you go the better the rotation is. It remains to be seen if it can work its way down to the surface and if so when.

Quoting Grothar:
I said, DID ANYBODY SEE THIS???

Link below:
See Link:
Interesting Link:
Wow:


Link

ummmm yep...closed my eyes...don't wanna see it but ty anyway....

Quoting angiest:

~Two weeks out on GFS and ECWMF.

Very unreliable models for storms that have not developed or even exist. These models as you know will change a hundred times and they can only predict accurately out about 3-5 to days in these modern, technologically advances times.

The tropical wave near Africa is pushing the SAL out of the way.

asked this earlier but probably made to many ignore lists but is the blob of convection at 43w 12n part of the monsoon?

Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


I do remember Gustav. I lived in the Baton Rouge area where we took a big hit. Gustav was about a week before Ike in 2008 and it actually came from the Atlantic north of Haiti and Cuba. It did cross over Cuba and became a major storm near the Isle of Youth before turning northwest toward Louisiana. It did not come through the Lesser Antilles! Most major storms that hit Louisiana come through the Florida Straits and not from the NW Carribean. The only outliner was Camille which hit the MS gulfcoast as you know. A just miss to Louisiana.

Where did it come through then to develop in the SE Caribbean ?



Gustav formed out of a tropical wave that had previously produced t-rain and squalls in the Lesser Antilles.

uh-oh maybe slam into Yucatan as ... strong t.s or cat 1 hurricane...

Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


Very unreliable models for storms that have not developed or even exist. These models as you know will change a hundred times and they can only predict accurately out about 3-5 to days in these modern, technologically advances times.

Yes, and we are simply discussing the interesting scenarios.

Not good future prospects for TD Six-E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011
800 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2011

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
DETACHED FROM A SINGLE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...PRESUMABLY A SYMPTOM OF CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB.

GLOBAL MODELS STILL FORECAST THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO DECREASE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CYCLONE WILL
GRADUALLY BE MOVING OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND WILL BEGIN TO
INGEST A RELATIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH.
THE LATTER TWO FACTORS WOULD LIKELY OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...AN ABRUPT
INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND SUB-26C WATERS SHOULD HASTEN THE
DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS A LITTLE BELOW THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE
THE CYCLONE DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY INDICATED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/8. AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD STEER IT ON A WESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY
48 HOURS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING BETWEEN 130W AND 140W
SHOULD CAUSE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE CYCLONE AT THAT POINT...THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO MINIMAL AND A MORE WESTERLY MOTION IS ASSUMED LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF
THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE UKMET/ECWMF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 12.2N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 12.2N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 12.3N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 12.4N 137.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 12.7N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 13.5N 141.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 14.0N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0000Z 13.5N 150.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Quoting kmanislander:


At the surface yes, but the higher you go the better the rotation is. It remains to be seen if it can work its way down to the surface and if so when.

A convective burst tonight during d-max would go a long way to getting that spin to the surface.

Quoting angiest:

If I'm not mistaken, that would be too far west.  I don't think it has crossed the islands yet.

Just passing between St Vincent and St Lucia near 61W.

We didnt need a sat pass to determine there is no surface low other than a very broad area of low pressure. No wind shift at Barbados to the West of due North today said it all.

Quoting HurricaneNewb:
asked this earlier but probably made to many ignore lists but is the blob of convection at 43w 12n part of the monsoon?

Good question but I don't know the answer. Sometimes it helps if you address your question to a specific person.

Quoting Grothar:
I said, DID ANYBODY SEE THIS???

Link below:
See Link:
Interesting Link:
Wow:


Link

>
I see that. 93 wipes out the entire east coast instead of bringing soaking rain to TX.

Well, we're TRYING to wishcast it here to TX, as hard as we can.....

This is off topic, but really cool. I gotta get me one of these things.

Link

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Where did it come through then to develop in the SE Caribbean ?



Gustav formed out of a tropical wave that had previously produced t-rain and squalls in the Lesser Antilles.

Aye! And what about Hilda, Edith (Texas scraper that one) or Audrey? Plus a proverbial bunch more.

thanks for the info BAHAHURRICA. I will check that out. Seems ive heard something about storms opening trails ,or windows THAT OTHER STROMS follow. I WILL CHECK TO SEE IF THERES SOME VALIDITY TO THAT.

Not a fun night in Bismark, ND.

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
Media reports "significant" flooding in the streets of Bismark, ND

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
Reports of flooding at the Bismarck expressway bridge. Cars cannot drive through water. Also other reports of flooding along expressway

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
Winds still gusting to 70mph in Bismark, ND and flooding reports are still coming in. Can someone safely send me a twitpic? Thanks

SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 936 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 925 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 918 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 817 PM MDT MON AUG 15 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 909 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BILLINGS MT - KBYZ 808 PM MDT MON AUG 15 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 852 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 747 PM MDT MON AUG 15 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 714 PM MDT MON AUG 15 2011

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good question but I don't know the answer. Sometimes it helps if you address your question to a specific person.

I was just about to ask the same question.

Quoting Grothar:
I said, DID ANYBODY SEE THIS???

Link below:
See Link:
Interesting Link:
Wow:


Link

Stop shouting . We can hear just fine and we don't need hearing aids old timer.

Well, I am off for the night. Everyone have a good rest of the evening.