Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.
Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.
Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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They've been able to simulate that for maybe around ten years now.
Its a pretty significant factor.
Immediate problem with your essay. 93L will be Harvey, not Irene, should it develop. So 97L would be Irene.
You agree with yourself?
That is 3 straight runs now that the GFS puts it right on top of Tampa Bay!
Did you call me???
ROFL>.. 2005 was a wild ride, who ever thought My handle "gamma" would be a tropical storm name!
yes beware ts..coming your way .. lol
Funny to see people like this talking about landfalls 10 days out when the system isn't even formed yet. Even stormhype wouldn't do this. Tis the season! lol
Mega LOL. Split personality.
Hi everyone.. been lurking but not posting for awhile..
Going to Orlando tomorrow thru Monday afternoon so please keep these storms away from Florida this weekend. (spending my birthday weekend with Mickey & Friends)
I see, if this next one developes we still have until next week to see where it could go.. if it developes.
I will check back in later this afternoon.
Keep the info coming.
thanks,
Gams
I agree. 28 really is something close to a once-in-a-century occurance, IMO. But I think this season will really challenge 19.
When it has enough energy to stand up.
Where did I say that 'yes, its going to make landfall in Tampa!!!' I was stating what the GFS was showing. I was NOT making a prediction. Last run it had it in a totally different place in Florida.
Yes, and what happens with the models often that far out, is a shift north and east.
GFS
Or south and west (Don).
Lesser Antilles has a 60% chance of TS force winds
Puerto Rico has a 50% chance of TS force winds
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hispaniola 25% chance of TS winds or higher
Bahamas-Cuba 10% chance
This is just too far away and not developed yet. We dont have a exact path after crossing 15-16N and 60W if this will affect Puerto Rico directly.. or bypass it and how strong it will be. Also Hispaniola is too far off to say it will go over it or just north or south of the big island.
Right now, the entire Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are vulnerable to 97L...
Reading the tea leaves/sheep's entrails/stars to zero in on one particular city at this point is a fool's errand.
Went back last year and the pier was moved.... to the pavillion area. LOL
Waters are to cold off our coast, and it's spinning the wrong way.
Coordinates: 15.0N 78.8W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.7 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,198 meters (~ 10,492 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1012.4 mb (~ 29.90 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 170° at 11 knots (From the S at ~ 12.6 mph)
Air Temp: 8.1°C (~ 46.6°F)
Dew Pt: -5.8°C (~ 21.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 11 knots (~ 12.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
Time: 16:59:00Z
Coordinates: 14.9333N 79.4667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.4 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,579 meters (~ 5,180 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1012.4 mb (~ 29.90 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 165° at 21 knots (From the SSE at ~ 24.1 mph)
Air Temp: 16.2°C (~ 61.2°F)
Dew Pt: 2.4°C (~ 36.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 22 knots (~ 25.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
Blog update:
Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, August 18th, with Video
"Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable,"
My understanding is the Greek letter is "retired" to reference the storm, but is actually still used if needed.
Sunrises are pretty spectacular I agree, and the moonrises when its Full are pretty awesome too. We dont see the frequency like other parts of FL for hurricane landfalls because a hurricane has to basically come straight in from the East to give us a direct hit, and a lot of the times they'll hit futher south, come in from the Gulf or ride up the east coast. My eyes are wide open now as we get into the heart of the season, hopefully nothing big comes our way.
That little day-old spin N of the Yucatan is almost the
size of 93, has moisture inflow from the S and N, and has had better rotation since it was born.
"Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable,"
ncstorm, so so true!!
Levi, I hear your going to be on a certain show tonight along with another 2 people. Joe B and a former WU Blogger.
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