TD 8 forms; 97L a potential threat to the Caribbean and U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:30 PM GMT on August 19, 2011

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Tropical Depression Eight formed last night near the coast of Honduras, and is headed westwards towards a landfall in Belize on Saturday. TD 8 is a small storm, so will impact a relatively small area of northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, all of Belize, and southern portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. TD 8 has just enough room between its center and the coast of Honduras to intensify into a moderate strength tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds before landfall. It is very unlikely TD8 has the time or room to intensify into a hurricane; NHC gave the storm just a 7% chance of making it to hurricane strength in their 11am EDT wind probability forecast. Should TD8 make it to tropical storm strength, it would be called Harvey.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 8.

Invest 97L likely to become a tropical storm next week, could threaten the U.S.
A tropical wave near 14°N 48°W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving westward near 20 mph. This wave, designated Invest 97L by NHC yesterday, has seen a marked increase in its heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, but dry air to the north and west is slowing development. An impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops, but the storm is at least a day away from forming a well-defined surface circulation. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C, about 2°C above the threshold needed to support a tropical storm, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L.

The computer models have shown an unusual amount of agreement in developing 97L over the past few days, and all the ingredients seem to be in place for a tropical storm to form by Monday or Tuesday as 97L crosses the Northeast Caribbean. The atmosphere is expected to be moister over the Caribbean, wind shear will remain a low 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures will increase to near 29°C. The main impediment for development will likely be two-fold: too much dry, stable air, and proximity to land.

As seen in Figure 3, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Atlantic this year, due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. This stable air has been largely responsible for the fact that none of our seven tropical storms so far this year has made it to hurricane strength, despite the presence of sea surface temperatures that are the 3rd warmest on record across the tropical Atlantic. Tropical Storm Emily in early August encountered problems with dry air when it crossed the Northeast Caribbean, and 97L may have similar difficulties.


Figure 3. Vertical instability of the atmosphere during 2011 in the Caribbean (left) and tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa (right.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Observed vertical instability (blue line) has been much lower than the climatological average from previous years (black line), due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, inhibiting tropical storm development this year. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.

Encounters with land will be another potential major problem for 97L. Most of the computer models take 97L near or over Puerto Rico Sunday night, then very close to or over mountainous Hispaniola Monday night through Tuesday. It is unlikely that 97L will be stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm when it encounters these islands, and passage over the islands could severely disrupt the storm. However, if 97L takes a path just south or north of Hispaniola, the potential exists for the storm to intensify into a hurricane.

There will be moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the north of the islands early next week, so a path just to the south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti would be more likely to let 97L intensify into a hurricane. A west-northwest motion is likely for 97L through Wednesday, which would bring the storm to the vicinity of Jamaica-Central Cuba-the Central Bahamas on Wednesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, the models agree that a trough of low pressure will dip down over the Eastern U.S., which is likely to turn 97L to the north. The exact timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when 97L will turn to the north. The best model for predicting the timing and strength of such troughs over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model), and this model currently brings 97L into the Florida Keys on Thursday night next week. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models.

Remember that a 7-day forecast by even our best model will be off by an average of over 700 miles, so it is too early to tell what part of the U.S. might be most at risk from a strike by 97L. This weekend would be a good time to go over your hurricane preparedness.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L off the coast of Africa.

Invest 98L near the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west to west-northwestward at 10 - 15 mph. This wave, designated Invest 98L by NHC yesterday, is large and well-organized, with a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. 98L will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rains to the Cape Verde Islands today and Saturday as the storm skirts to the south. So far this morning, top sustained winds measured in the islands were 24 mph at Mindelo. Water temperatures are warm, near 27 - 28°C, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, so 98L should continue to organize today. NHC gave the storm a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression in their 8am advisory. Once 98L passes to the west of the Cape Verde Islands, it has a long stretch of ocean to cross before it could affect any other land areas. Approximately 70 - 80% of all tropical cyclones that pass this close to the Cape Verde Islands end up curving out to sea and not affecting any other land areas, according to Dr. Bob Hart's excellent historical probability of landfall charts. The latest set of long-range model runs go along with this idea, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Jeff Masters

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Cone of confusion! I love it. Great description.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
ahhhh, "supposed to"...Katrina did make her first landfall in SFla as a Cat 1...


<-- eyes coffee, I need another cup. Sorry, I meant not supposed to go west.
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Blog update on Harvey and invest 97l check it out
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Obama's June trip to Puerto Rico was the first by a sitting US President since Kennedy. That means no visits from Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush I, or Bush II. Perspective always helps.

97L looks very impressive this morning. I'd put the center at roughly 14.8N/54.5W. If that convection can consolidate, we should see a TD by tomorrow, if not today.

I see that ATCF has deactivated 99L (though NHC still has the floater up); can we assume that means 98L won out after all?



Well isn't that funny how you ONLY pointed out......Republicans........Clinton, Carter.......LOL...WE UNDERSTAND THO........


BTW.......Looks like 97L is about to form a Surface Low!

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3938. Grothar
GFS ensemble models

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I gotta tell you... these models have had this over the islands plot in the runs for the the last three days now... I think the final track could be any one of them, but this system is going to go up and over these islands SOMEhow....

Anyway, I'm out for a bit... will definitely be on later, prolly closer to 11 a.m.
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3936. Grothar
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Quoting justalurker:


it really is depressing!! making a choice between survival and safety.


And the mindset that it's just those on welfare, etc. Many people live check to check even with two people working. Single parents with children who have good jobs, but the cost of everything makes it so difficult. A friend is a single mother with a deadbeat ex. She's an EMT and works crazy long hours. Her furnace broke and now she heats their trailer with electric heaters. Sad, but for her a hurricane means the chance of losing her home as it's surrounded by large pine trees, but it also means a ton of overtime and more money. But she doesn't prepare because she doesn't have the money for it.
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Quoting Nolehead:
morning everyone, looks like the models will flopping from west to east and back again, just like any other storm..just have to wait and see..


Until we get a center it's, going to flip back and forth. We learned from you Know who, that just because it says your safe, 12 hours later you can be smack dab in the cone of confusion.
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12Z NHC preliminary has more land interaction, going over Hispaniola


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Quoting aislinnpaps:


It reminds me a bit of Katrina who was originally supposed to go to Florida.
ahhhh, "supposed to"...Katrina did make her first landfall in SFla as a Cat 1...
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Quoting TampaSpin:

I DON"T know take your pick as to which is correct..........impossible to know.


Any of those tracks makes 97L weak, right?
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3930. Grothar
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By the way Baha do you have a Facebook?
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tampa, the gfs sure changed more west didnt it?...again these models flip all over till they can get a good grip on the system....if they ever do..lol..seems this is the year of hell it might go here and might go there...been 1 crazy season so far..
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3927. docrod
Key West Radar is STILL down.

Sometimes difficult to get parts in the Keys, hope the part finally arrives today.

000

NOUS62 KKEY 160914

FTMBYX

Message Date: Aug 16 2011 09:14:29

KBYX RADAR WILL BE DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO LOSS OF COMMUNICATION BETWEEN THE RDA AND THE RPG.



000

NOUS62 KKEY 161824

FTMBYX

Message Date: Aug 16 2011 18:24:32

THE WSR-88D KEY WEST (KBYX) RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE.
PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND THEY WILL BE ARRIVING TOMORROW. AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. - UL

RICH





000

NOUS62 KKEY 170349

FTMBYX

Message Date: Aug 17 2011 03:49:57



THE WSR-88D KEY WEST (KBYX) RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE.

PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND THEY WILL BE ARRIVING WEDNESDAY. AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE.





000

NOUS62 KKEY 171748

FTMBYX

Message Date: Aug 17 2011 17:48:35



THE WSR-88D KEY WEST (KBYX) RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE.

SOME PARTS HAVE ARRIVED...BUT ADDITIONAL PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED WHICH WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE RADAR WILL REMAIN DOWN AT LEAST

THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOME

S AVAILABLE. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE.





000

NOUS62 KKEY 190032

FTMBYX

Message Date: Aug 19 2011 00:32:59

THE WSR-88D KEY WEST (KBYX) RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK. TECHNICIANS ARE WAITING ON ONE ADDITIONAL PART THAT SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEY ARE HOPEFUL THE RADAR WILL BE OPERATIONAL SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. - ULRICH





000

NOUS62 KKEY 190100

FTMBYX

Message Date: Aug 19 2011 01:00:30


***CORRECTED TO CHANGE `THURSDAY` TO `FRIDAY`*** THE WSR-88D KEY WEST (KBYX) RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK. TECHNICIANS ARE WAITING ON ONE ADDITIONAL PART THAT SHOULD ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING AND THEY ARE HOPEFUL THE RADAR WILL BE OPERATIONAL SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. - ULRICH

000
NOUS62 KKEY 191807
FTMBYX
Message Date: Aug 19 2011 18:07:59

THE WSR-88D KEY WEST (KBYX) RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK. TECHNICIANS ARE WAITING ON ONE ADDITIONAL PART, BUT UNFORTUNATELY ITS SHIPMENT HAS BEEN DELAYED. THE PART SHOULD ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING
AND TECHNICIANS HOPE TO HAVE THE RADAR OPERATIONAL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A
N UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THANKS FOR YOU
R PATIENCE. - ULRICH
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Add Harvey to the growing list of night time landfalling tropical cyclones?
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Quoting HCW:
Hot off the presses the latest 97L runs from the NHC. So what do you think about the slight shift to the west ?





i'll believe she's going in the gom when its west of hispaniola,the consistancy of the models targeting the eastern gom us a bit concerning,im just about 100% preped,just need gas,tp and more water,i have sterno 2 cases of mres,flashlights batteries,fishing pole/cast net,cash,batt operated fan(a must,pickd it up at local big lots for 9.99!!!),munchies....one thing i do need is a bat operated digital tv..
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I DON"T know take your pick as to which is correct..........impossible to know.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Sad to say, but this is true for many areas that can be affected by hurricanes. When I stopped at Walmart last night they have the front of the store filled with bins of marked down snacks and canned foods of the great value brand. But when given the choice of even buying these against paying for food for this week or paying a bill...


it really is depressing!! making a choice between survival and safety.
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Morning Grothar.
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
Of course not a direct landfall Baha. I am just saying if this thing made lanfall as Cat 2 in SC. It's not far off to assume that we can be impacted although it would probably weaken some. Unless some kind of weather phenomenon prevents that from happening.
Yeah. But that's basically one run, almost 10 days out... right now this isn't even a cyclone of any kind yet, not even a TD. I'm only saying that until we get a storm going, and until you see the models coming back to G'boro again and again, it's only a possibility. I have to say the Triad area has rarely seen impacts from hurricanes [I think there may have been some from Hugo, but I wasn't there for that]. Frankly, I'd worry about a possible inland impact from a tropical cyclone AFTER it makes landfall in SC...
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3919. scott39
Quoting HCW:
Hot off the presses the latest 97L runs from the NHC. So what do you think about the slight shift to the west ?





I think it shows 97L taking longer to develope.
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These are the BAM Models
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Quoting HCW:
Hot off the presses the latest 97L runs from the NHC. So what do you think about the slight shift to the west ?







It reminds me a bit of Katrina who was originally supposed to go to Florida.
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This would not be a great track!
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3914. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like a really sharp turn coming near Central to Western Cuba for 97L..........WOW will timing be everything.....

YOu can see the Opening below.

Looks like it takes it longer to develope.
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Gonna start reviewing my hurricane plans now, just in case. Probably gonna have to go out and buy some EH Rated boots for work. But today I'm going to Sea World. Will see if anything has changed when I get back. Interesting seeing a forecasters discussion on the overall synoptic pattern, and what the model biases have been tho.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Used to live off Battleground at one point, and on Spring Garden St, not too far from UNCG. It's been quite a while since I've stopped in G'boro.... usually I go up to Raleigh or down to Charlotte....



Yup that is where I am living around. :)
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HCW - The slight shift to the west is not good for Bonita Springs, Florida.
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3910. Grothar
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Quoting justalurker:
how many here are going to be affected by invest 97l economically, not being able to afford to prepare yourself for the storm?


Sad to say, but this is true for many areas that can be affected by hurricanes. When I stopped at Walmart last night they have the front of the store filled with bins of marked down snacks and canned foods of the great value brand. But when given the choice of even buying these against paying for food for this week or paying a bill...
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AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 0 143N 549W 30
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 12 153N 585W 38
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 24 163N 620W 48
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 36 171N 649W 58
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 48 180N 672W 69
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 60 187N 693W 62
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 72 194N 713W 43
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 84 201N 733W 43
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 96 210N 753W 45
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 108 218N 769W 48
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 120 227N 782W 46
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morning everyone, looks like the models will flopping from west to east and back again, just like any other storm..just have to wait and see..
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

Perhaps for a reason? Since the person he was replying to was attacking our current President??? Perhaps that person is an avid Republican so Nea politely reminded him what past Republican presidents did not do??? JMHO
poof
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


I live in DTWN G'boro.Near YUM YUM's and Sonic. Where did you live?
Used to live off Battleground at one point, and on Spring Garden St, not too far from UNCG. It's been quite a while since I've stopped in G'boro.... usually I go up to Raleigh or down to Charlotte....

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3902. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
here is a link to good tropical info from my blog page drop by check it out give me a plus

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
3901. HCW
Hot off the presses the latest 97L runs from the NHC. So what do you think about the slight shift to the west ?





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Looks like a really sharp turn coming near Central to Western Cuba for 97L..........WOW will timing be everything.....

YOu can see the Opening below.

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3899. SLU
130

WHXX01 KWBC 201230

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1230 UTC SAT AUG 20 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110820 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110820 1200 110821 0000 110821 1200 110822 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.3N 54.9W 15.0N 58.6W 15.6N 62.3W 16.4N 65.6W

BAMD 14.3N 54.9W 15.1N 58.0W 15.9N 60.9W 16.6N 63.7W

BAMM 14.3N 54.9W 15.0N 58.2W 15.7N 61.4W 16.5N 64.4W

LBAR 14.3N 54.9W 15.0N 58.3W 15.6N 61.7W 16.1N 65.0W

SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS 58KTS

DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS 58KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110822 1200 110823 1200 110824 1200 110825 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.9N 68.9W 18.1N 73.8W 19.1N 77.2W 21.4N 79.6W

BAMD 17.3N 66.2W 19.0N 70.8W 21.2N 74.4W 24.6N 78.7W

BAMM 17.2N 67.3W 18.7N 72.3W 20.0N 76.2W 22.1N 79.6W

LBAR 16.4N 68.1W 17.3N 73.2W 19.8N 77.2W 21.9N 79.7W

SHIP 69KTS 86KTS 89KTS 90KTS

DSHP 69KTS 43KTS 45KTS 46KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 54.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 18KT

LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 51.2W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 47.4W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN




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how many here are going to be affected by invest 97l economically, not being able to afford to prepare yourself for the storm?
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Quoting WxLogic:


About the same track as HPC is depicting... may be a bit further N.


Basically the NHC preliminary from 06Z.

Mornin SJ
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COC is at 14,. If it starts moving NW, it can even pass N of PR...

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3894. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NAVTEX MARINE FORECAST

Excerpt:

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MON. LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING ALONG
A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N53W. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND INTO THE ATLC WATERS OFF THE N COAST OF
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY MON NIGHT. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE
PASSED THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TUE...THEN NW ALONG THE NE
COAST OF CUBA THROUGH LATE WED.



About the same track as HPC is depicting... may be a bit further N.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5030
3893. scott39
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, Looks like the models agree the 97L is going to develope. How soon is a Question in my mind? I know that 97L is the healthiest wave that we have seen so far this season, and is going to fair better than others. I also know looking at the current Sal map and vorticity, along with low vertical instability that 97L will develope slower. It also does not have far to go before it reaches the E Caribbean, and developement is not likely before then. I think developement is going to occur N/central or NW Caribbean. This would put 97L on the most recent Southern model run at this point. Ok everyone, I know this rookie Opinion is crude to you, but feel free to grade....so I can learn more.
Nea--- do you feel like grading on a Saturday?
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not that this wont change,expecting some wx next friday fromthe wx channels 7day for sarasota

img src="IMG 20110820 083016">
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.