TD 8 forms; 97L a potential threat to the Caribbean and U.S.
Tropical Depression Eight formed last night near the coast of Honduras, and is headed westwards towards a landfall in Belize on Saturday. TD 8 is a small storm, so will impact a relatively small area of northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, all of Belize, and southern portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. TD 8 has just enough room between its center and the coast of Honduras to intensify into a moderate strength tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds before landfall. It is very unlikely TD8 has the time or room to intensify into a hurricane; NHC gave the storm just a 7% chance of making it to hurricane strength in their 11am EDT wind probability forecast. Should TD8 make it to tropical storm strength, it would be called Harvey.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 8.
Invest 97L likely to become a tropical storm next week, could threaten the U.S.
A tropical wave near 14°N 48°W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving westward near 20 mph. This wave, designated Invest 97L by NHC yesterday, has seen a marked increase in its heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, but dry air to the north and west is slowing development. An impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops, but the storm is at least a day away from forming a well-defined surface circulation. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C, about 2°C above the threshold needed to support a tropical storm, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L.
The computer models have shown an unusual amount of agreement in developing 97L over the past few days, and all the ingredients seem to be in place for a tropical storm to form by Monday or Tuesday as 97L crosses the Northeast Caribbean. The atmosphere is expected to be moister over the Caribbean, wind shear will remain a low 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures will increase to near 29°C. The main impediment for development will likely be two-fold: too much dry, stable air, and proximity to land.
As seen in Figure 3, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Atlantic this year, due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. This stable air has been largely responsible for the fact that none of our seven tropical storms so far this year has made it to hurricane strength, despite the presence of sea surface temperatures that are the 3rd warmest on record across the tropical Atlantic. Tropical Storm Emily in early August encountered problems with dry air when it crossed the Northeast Caribbean, and 97L may have similar difficulties.
Figure 3. Vertical instability of the atmosphere during 2011 in the Caribbean (left) and tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa (right.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Observed vertical instability (blue line) has been much lower than the climatological average from previous years (black line), due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, inhibiting tropical storm development this year. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.
Encounters with land will be another potential major problem for 97L. Most of the computer models take 97L near or over Puerto Rico Sunday night, then very close to or over mountainous Hispaniola Monday night through Tuesday. It is unlikely that 97L will be stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm when it encounters these islands, and passage over the islands could severely disrupt the storm. However, if 97L takes a path just south or north of Hispaniola, the potential exists for the storm to intensify into a hurricane.
There will be moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the north of the islands early next week, so a path just to the south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti would be more likely to let 97L intensify into a hurricane. A west-northwest motion is likely for 97L through Wednesday, which would bring the storm to the vicinity of Jamaica-Central Cuba-the Central Bahamas on Wednesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, the models agree that a trough of low pressure will dip down over the Eastern U.S., which is likely to turn 97L to the north. The exact timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when 97L will turn to the north. The best model for predicting the timing and strength of such troughs over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model), and this model currently brings 97L into the Florida Keys on Thursday night next week. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models.
Remember that a 7-day forecast by even our best model will be off by an average of over 700 miles, so it is too early to tell what part of the U.S. might be most at risk from a strike by 97L. This weekend would be a good time to go over your hurricane preparedness.
Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L off the coast of Africa.
Invest 98L near the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west to west-northwestward at 10 - 15 mph. This wave, designated Invest 98L by NHC yesterday, is large and well-organized, with a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. 98L will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rains to the Cape Verde Islands today and Saturday as the storm skirts to the south. So far this morning, top sustained winds measured in the islands were 24 mph at Mindelo. Water temperatures are warm, near 27 - 28°C, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, so 98L should continue to organize today. NHC gave the storm a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression in their 8am advisory. Once 98L passes to the west of the Cape Verde Islands, it has a long stretch of ocean to cross before it could affect any other land areas. Approximately 70 - 80% of all tropical cyclones that pass this close to the Cape Verde Islands end up curving out to sea and not affecting any other land areas, according to Dr. Bob Hart's excellent historical probability of landfall charts. The latest set of long-range model runs go along with this idea, but it is too early to be confident of this.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Why?
look at that plot
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.php?stati on=41040&uom=M&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT
What do you think it is then, a pin hole eye in a system that is not even a TD ?
Grab some windex, scrub the glasses.
Sorry Admin!
that's more like it
Go back and check my edit.
Thanks to my "supporters" lol. I do not know Taz, his history , background info, or anything about him. SORRY TAZ. I also don't claim to know more than anyone here, I admittedly know very little and mostly just read / ask questions. I respect everyone's opinion here... But if Taz is going to point out what other posters are doing to "annoy" him... Can I not do the same to Taz?
Regardless of that answer, I won't do it anymore. Let's get back to the tropics guys, things are finally getting interesting! Sorry for the kink in the blog
I just got hit by the same storm, I'll tell it was well worth the strong-worded Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Also one of the few times I've ever actually gotten hail here in NE NJ.
I'm sure the people who live on or near the island mountains hope otherwise. But we're all entitled to our hopes.
That would be nice. I could do a blog about it, but nobody would read it. People think that just because someone is old they don't know anything. :)
:( I see how it is...
97L looks like a well from TD right now it olny needs a close low and there you have it
I just saw that. The diminishing of convection is probably a combination of Dmin and dry air. I don't think the deterioration in the satellite appearance is finished though.
Twit. I even wrote a post today about you saying that Harvey would form, which you had been claiming for days.
Birds of a feather flock together...
Carolina
Carolina is known as "La Tierra de Gigantes" (land of giants), in honor of one of its inhabitants: Don Felipe Birriel, who was the tallest man in Puerto Rican history, with an unconfirmed height of 2.413 meters or seven feet eleven inches (7' 11")
Carolina is also known as "El Pueblo de los Tumba Brazos" (arm hackers town), because in old days, it is said that people resolved their conflicts with a duel. Lorenzo Vizcarrondo founded Carolina in 1857. The city's original name was Trujillo Bajo. It took on a new name when Don Gaspar Martínez, the person who donated the land to establish the municipality, requested that the town be called Carolina in honor of his daughter Carolina de San Juan.
Carolina once was an important center for sugar production. Today, Carolina is Puerto Rico's fourth largest city and is dubbed the Industrial Capital of Puerto Rico for its concentration of factories.
Carolina is bordering the Atlantic Ocean; south of Gurabo and Juncos; east of Trujillo Alto and San Juan; and west of Canóvanas and Loíza. Its rivers are: Grande de Loíza, and Canovanillas.
http://www.topuertorico.org/city/carolina.shtml
heh heh heh
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
BRONX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
SOUTHEASTERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
* UNTIL 830 PM EDT...
* AT 721 PM EDT...FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED FROM THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DOBBS FERRY TO LONG ISLAND CITY TO TODT
HILL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DOBBS FERRY TO MIDTOWN
MANHATTAN TO TODT HILL...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
* THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE NEAR...
PARK SLOPE...BROOKLYN HEIGHTS...VERRAZANO-NARROWS BRIDGE AND EAST
TREMONT BY 730 PM EDT...
SCARSDALE...LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...JACKSON HEIGHTS AND BAY RIDGE BY
735 PM EDT...
BENSONHURST AND WHITE PLAINS BY 740 PM EDT...
If we weren't already past the G storm we could do it this year, call it Gert_Grothar and all read your blog on it. Besides, you're not old until you're ancient, so you have a few more years. *G*
I'm zooming into the latest visible imagery, and according to recon and what I am seeing on imagery, I think Harvey's center of circulation may be right on the coast. If definitely was not where it was supposed to be according to microwave, or other sources.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him." Jonathan Swift
Yes.
That's not strange, they are on weaker side JMO, hold on wait and see!
Coordinates: 16.3333N 85.0333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,528 meters (~ 5,013 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 38° at 26 knots (From the NE at ~ 29.9 mph)
Air Temp: 14.8°C* (~ 58.6°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 28 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 32 knots (~ 36.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr (~ 0.31 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
As it should be.
232730 1605N 08435W 8422 01505 //// +191 //// 175011 019 051 008 05
232800 1605N 08433W 8426 01511 //// +161 //// 192027 034 044 005 05
232830 1606N 08431W 8440 01494 //// +170 //// 194027 030 042 002 01
232900 1607N 08430W 8414 01526 //// +171 //// 184028 032 042 001 01
232930 1608N 08428W 8440 01503 //// +169 //// 173025 030 042 002 01
233000 1609N 08427W 8432 01512 //// +173 //// 172026 028 040 001 05
$$
;
Wish I could see what you're saying here, but I have you on ignore. :|
Now who's the twit??
I must be on Grothar's ignore :/
lol
on the contrary......IF your old, i value your opinion even moreso.....wisdom comes with age, for most anyway!
I'm driving west 5 minutes then.
I thought you were supposed to set them in the sun for a few days to cure umm? sterilize.
Yes. There are two competing circulations, both different disturbances located very close to each other.
TWC = drama queens looking for ratings. Good for the sponsors
I hope if it should hit Navarre the realty will board up my son's house, he's deployed. (and only about two blocks from the Gulf.)
Stop quoting Grothar I have him on ignore.
TIA!!!!!
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