TD 8 forms; 97L a potential threat to the Caribbean and U.S.
Tropical Depression Eight formed last night near the coast of Honduras, and is headed westwards towards a landfall in Belize on Saturday. TD 8 is a small storm, so will impact a relatively small area of northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, all of Belize, and southern portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. TD 8 has just enough room between its center and the coast of Honduras to intensify into a moderate strength tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds before landfall. It is very unlikely TD8 has the time or room to intensify into a hurricane; NHC gave the storm just a 7% chance of making it to hurricane strength in their 11am EDT wind probability forecast. Should TD8 make it to tropical storm strength, it would be called Harvey.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 8.
Invest 97L likely to become a tropical storm next week, could threaten the U.S.
A tropical wave near 14°N 48°W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving westward near 20 mph. This wave, designated Invest 97L by NHC yesterday, has seen a marked increase in its heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, but dry air to the north and west is slowing development. An impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops, but the storm is at least a day away from forming a well-defined surface circulation. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C, about 2°C above the threshold needed to support a tropical storm, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L.
The computer models have shown an unusual amount of agreement in developing 97L over the past few days, and all the ingredients seem to be in place for a tropical storm to form by Monday or Tuesday as 97L crosses the Northeast Caribbean. The atmosphere is expected to be moister over the Caribbean, wind shear will remain a low 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures will increase to near 29°C. The main impediment for development will likely be two-fold: too much dry, stable air, and proximity to land.
As seen in Figure 3, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Atlantic this year, due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. This stable air has been largely responsible for the fact that none of our seven tropical storms so far this year has made it to hurricane strength, despite the presence of sea surface temperatures that are the 3rd warmest on record across the tropical Atlantic. Tropical Storm Emily in early August encountered problems with dry air when it crossed the Northeast Caribbean, and 97L may have similar difficulties.
Figure 3. Vertical instability of the atmosphere during 2011 in the Caribbean (left) and tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa (right.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Observed vertical instability (blue line) has been much lower than the climatological average from previous years (black line), due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, inhibiting tropical storm development this year. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.
Encounters with land will be another potential major problem for 97L. Most of the computer models take 97L near or over Puerto Rico Sunday night, then very close to or over mountainous Hispaniola Monday night through Tuesday. It is unlikely that 97L will be stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm when it encounters these islands, and passage over the islands could severely disrupt the storm. However, if 97L takes a path just south or north of Hispaniola, the potential exists for the storm to intensify into a hurricane.
There will be moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the north of the islands early next week, so a path just to the south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti would be more likely to let 97L intensify into a hurricane. A west-northwest motion is likely for 97L through Wednesday, which would bring the storm to the vicinity of Jamaica-Central Cuba-the Central Bahamas on Wednesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, the models agree that a trough of low pressure will dip down over the Eastern U.S., which is likely to turn 97L to the north. The exact timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when 97L will turn to the north. The best model for predicting the timing and strength of such troughs over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model), and this model currently brings 97L into the Florida Keys on Thursday night next week. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models.
Remember that a 7-day forecast by even our best model will be off by an average of over 700 miles, so it is too early to tell what part of the U.S. might be most at risk from a strike by 97L. This weekend would be a good time to go over your hurricane preparedness.
Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L off the coast of Africa.
Invest 98L near the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west to west-northwestward at 10 - 15 mph. This wave, designated Invest 98L by NHC yesterday, is large and well-organized, with a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. 98L will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rains to the Cape Verde Islands today and Saturday as the storm skirts to the south. So far this morning, top sustained winds measured in the islands were 24 mph at Mindelo. Water temperatures are warm, near 27 - 28°C, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, so 98L should continue to organize today. NHC gave the storm a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression in their 8am advisory. Once 98L passes to the west of the Cape Verde Islands, it has a long stretch of ocean to cross before it could affect any other land areas. Approximately 70 - 80% of all tropical cyclones that pass this close to the Cape Verde Islands end up curving out to sea and not affecting any other land areas, according to Dr. Bob Hart's excellent historical probability of landfall charts. The latest set of long-range model runs go along with this idea, but it is too early to be confident of this.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Link
BELIZE." line. Maybe for the 5 a.m. advisory.
House cleaning vort reconsideration?
Something is changing .....
Lol. My exact thoughts when I read that. Good evening everyone. :)
11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 19
Location: 16.2°N 85.2°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Dry Air is my Friend!
A repost from much earlier today:
We commonly talk about the difference in input data for the 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC GFS runs.
So, how do the long-term landfall areas of the 00 and 12 GFS runs compare to the same for the 06 and 18 UTC?
00 and 12 UTC GFS forecasts from 08/15 00 UTC to 08/19 00 UTC:
06 and 18 UTC GFS forecasts from 08/14 18 UTC to 08/19 06 UTC:
I *think* I see that 06 and 18 tends to "whip" back and forth a bit further than the 00 and 12, but both are certainly doing it.
00 and 12 seems to like the N to NE GoM solution in the more recent runs more than 06 and 18.
Further, if one "throws out" the TX and NOLA solution (one each) GFS seems to want this to be a Florida storm, in the last couple of days worth of runs, especially. The "middle ground" between all of the runs is FL panhandle.
A real forecast of that, this far out, is out of the question, of course. But if I were forced to pick an area based on all of the model results, to date, that would be it. JMO.
*disclaimer: Do not make any real decisions based on a comment in a blog.
no its not patheic
3 layers of tormenteras are ready...
ok
Most say it couldn't happen.
Now the NHC is on my side. Hurricane.
Listen to the little guy even if he is only 12!
Charge your cell phone.
Patrap gave a good list earlier tonight.
Let's eat grandma!
Let's eat, grandma!
Commas save lives.
Point taken.
Not nice for Belize though.
Saw Norcross on TWC - seems to think there is no way 97L will miss CONUS.
That deserves a +1 lol.
I don't mean it like that though.
To those saying Lousiana. If it hits I'll expect you all here promptly at nine the next morning to help me clean up. I'd say I'd have some coffee ready and cinnamon rolls, but odds are I wouldn't have electric, so you'll have to bring those with you. I like my coffee sweet and light. *G*
I remember something about helping my Uncle Jack get down from a horse that probably would not be appropriate here.
Sorry guys couldn't resist adding this!! Gomer predicts the weather!!!
In Belize's case, the winds won't be a problem even if Harvey does ramp up to a hurricane. Their primary source of damage from tropical cyclones, barring extreme examples like Iris in 2001, is freshwater flooding.
It's very obvious where the center of 97L "WANTS" to be. Question is, will the atmosphere allow it?
Uhhh not really since it's heading for land...
Weather Safety Emergency Checklist
Be ready for a weather emergency in advance and put together a basic survival kit.
Food Items:
Bottled drinking water
Bread
Crackers
Cookies, snacks
Canned fruit
Canned meat, fish
Apples, bananas
Dried fruit
Canned/boxed beverages
Fruit drinks
Peanut butter
Non-Food Items:
Ice
Coolers
Plastic forks and cups
Napkins
Can opener (non-electric)
Batteries for flashlights and radio
Plastic trash bags
Charcoal
Water purifying tablets
Flashlights
Candles and matches
Clothing and bedding
Extra socks and underwear
Pillows
Sleeping bag and blankets
Washcloth and towel for each person
Soap, toothbrushes, toothpaste
Deodorant
Shaving kit
Contact lens solution
Hair care items and mirror
Dentures
Sanitary napkins and tampons
Paper towels, toilet paper
Hearing aid batteries
Watch or clock
Portable radio with fresh batteries
Chlorine tablets
Spare pair of eyeglasses
Cash
Prescription medicines
Important papers (drivers licenses, insurance policies, social security cards)
Toolbox with hammer, nails, screws, screwdrivers and wrenches (to use after the storm to make your home livable again)
Cell phone (take an extra battery or a means to power or charge it)
list of people to contact for emergencies
First Aid Kit:
Keep contents of first aid kit in a waterproof metal or plastic box.
Prescription medicines (four-week supply)
Bandages and Band-Aids
Antiseptic
Adhesive tape rolls
Aspirin
Insect repellent
First aid handbook
Scissors
Antibacterial soap
Safety pins
Thermometer
Needle (for splinters)
Items for Infants:
Small toys include favorite stuffed animals
Clothes
Diapers and baby wipes
Milk or formula
Powders, creams or ointments
Bottles and nipples
Baby food
Sheets, blankets, rubber pads
Portable crib
Plastic bags
Pacifiers
Perhaps that is where Jim Cantore gets his info?! LOL
Thanks. That's the kind of idea I was looking for, always like to collect these hints. You know about what post number that was, too lazy to go through all 2700+ posts.
Would be a VERY different story for sure!
Last year, Richard hit Belize as a Cat 2. From Wiki:
"Throughout Belize, Hurricane Richard caused an estimated US$80 million in damage. Two fatalities took place in the country, one direct and the other indirect. One person drowned after his ship capsized during the storm and another was mauled to death by a jaguar that escaped its cage after a tree fell and broke the cage."
Check Patrap's blog.
Bottom of this page, click 'blog INDEX'.
edited
That "pay you bill" idea is golden, will add it to my hurricane preparation permanent list. Thanks.
Yea last year was bad for Belize, they seemed like they couldnt get a break. I think three to four storms made landfall there last year. Hope the luck changes, thy could use a break.
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