TD 8 forms; 97L a potential threat to the Caribbean and U.S.
Tropical Depression Eight formed last night near the coast of Honduras, and is headed westwards towards a landfall in Belize on Saturday. TD 8 is a small storm, so will impact a relatively small area of northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, all of Belize, and southern portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. TD 8 has just enough room between its center and the coast of Honduras to intensify into a moderate strength tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds before landfall. It is very unlikely TD8 has the time or room to intensify into a hurricane; NHC gave the storm just a 7% chance of making it to hurricane strength in their 11am EDT wind probability forecast. Should TD8 make it to tropical storm strength, it would be called Harvey.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 8.
Invest 97L likely to become a tropical storm next week, could threaten the U.S.
A tropical wave near 14°N 48°W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving westward near 20 mph. This wave, designated Invest 97L by NHC yesterday, has seen a marked increase in its heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, but dry air to the north and west is slowing development. An impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops, but the storm is at least a day away from forming a well-defined surface circulation. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C, about 2°C above the threshold needed to support a tropical storm, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L.
The computer models have shown an unusual amount of agreement in developing 97L over the past few days, and all the ingredients seem to be in place for a tropical storm to form by Monday or Tuesday as 97L crosses the Northeast Caribbean. The atmosphere is expected to be moister over the Caribbean, wind shear will remain a low 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures will increase to near 29°C. The main impediment for development will likely be two-fold: too much dry, stable air, and proximity to land.
As seen in Figure 3, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Atlantic this year, due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. This stable air has been largely responsible for the fact that none of our seven tropical storms so far this year has made it to hurricane strength, despite the presence of sea surface temperatures that are the 3rd warmest on record across the tropical Atlantic. Tropical Storm Emily in early August encountered problems with dry air when it crossed the Northeast Caribbean, and 97L may have similar difficulties.
Figure 3. Vertical instability of the atmosphere during 2011 in the Caribbean (left) and tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa (right.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Observed vertical instability (blue line) has been much lower than the climatological average from previous years (black line), due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, inhibiting tropical storm development this year. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.
Encounters with land will be another potential major problem for 97L. Most of the computer models take 97L near or over Puerto Rico Sunday night, then very close to or over mountainous Hispaniola Monday night through Tuesday. It is unlikely that 97L will be stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm when it encounters these islands, and passage over the islands could severely disrupt the storm. However, if 97L takes a path just south or north of Hispaniola, the potential exists for the storm to intensify into a hurricane.
There will be moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the north of the islands early next week, so a path just to the south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti would be more likely to let 97L intensify into a hurricane. A west-northwest motion is likely for 97L through Wednesday, which would bring the storm to the vicinity of Jamaica-Central Cuba-the Central Bahamas on Wednesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, the models agree that a trough of low pressure will dip down over the Eastern U.S., which is likely to turn 97L to the north. The exact timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when 97L will turn to the north. The best model for predicting the timing and strength of such troughs over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model), and this model currently brings 97L into the Florida Keys on Thursday night next week. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models.
Remember that a 7-day forecast by even our best model will be off by an average of over 700 miles, so it is too early to tell what part of the U.S. might be most at risk from a strike by 97L. This weekend would be a good time to go over your hurricane preparedness.
Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L off the coast of Africa.
Invest 98L near the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west to west-northwestward at 10 - 15 mph. This wave, designated Invest 98L by NHC yesterday, is large and well-organized, with a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. 98L will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rains to the Cape Verde Islands today and Saturday as the storm skirts to the south. So far this morning, top sustained winds measured in the islands were 24 mph at Mindelo. Water temperatures are warm, near 27 - 28°C, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, so 98L should continue to organize today. NHC gave the storm a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression in their 8am advisory. Once 98L passes to the west of the Cape Verde Islands, it has a long stretch of ocean to cross before it could affect any other land areas. Approximately 70 - 80% of all tropical cyclones that pass this close to the Cape Verde Islands end up curving out to sea and not affecting any other land areas, according to Dr. Bob Hart's excellent historical probability of landfall charts. The latest set of long-range model runs go along with this idea, but it is too early to be confident of this.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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A. 2am
B. 8am
C. 2pm
D. 8pm
Well i will go with the 2am put it 60-70%, 8am might be at 80-90% so i will have to go with 2pm advisory or the 8pm advisory it will be a T.D or a minimal T.S. What do you guys think?
Brother you got that right.....someone might have a rough year a coming.
Too soon to say EEEK but I'm doing a lotta hmmmm'ing.
Location looks better then the 18Z.. bit more north, but not by much. Had a great workout tonight, back home to track our potential Hurricane!
Would be nice for someone somehow to get some rain into TX.
It has the hots for you.
Where on the Gulf Coast are you located?
Thinking Harvey will be pretty happy.
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
8 am or 2 pm and it will have a name, IMO
2 am puts it at 80-90% IMO
Dishwasher - Yikes - didnt think of the drain. Thanks.
I suppose for those who have a web site on a server, you could upload some info.
For me, those most important papers are the family pictures. Could scan the most important ones, but I would hate to lose the actual photo - many of which are from my grandparents. I keep them in a brief case, ready to go with me, but should probably use something a bit more protective.
Evening Aqua. It is about time to pay attention for sure.
1) Make sure you have a car charger for your cell phone.
2) If cell phone calls are blocked... often enough you can still send text messages.
3) If you have a house and yard... buy TIKI torches and several gallons of tiki oil. Set at least 2 in your front yard and 2 in your backyard at night. Neighborhoods get really dark with no electricity. Looters don't want a confrontation in an occupied home. If you have tiki torches lit... they will be very unlikely to bother your house. Several gallons of oil will last you about 7-10 days.
4) If you have a small generator (3500 watts to 6000 watts), it will use around 5-6 gallons of gasoline per 24-hours. Get LOTS of 5-10 gallon containers and fill every one of them up. Figure on having enough gas to last at least 7-10 days.
5) If you have a small generator, then go on Craigslist and buy a cheap, used window air conditioner. In a pinch, you can secure one area in your home that is air conditioned.
6) Get all of your medication prescriptions filled early. Also, have your pharmacy print you a list of all current medications. If you have to evacuate, other pharmacies will fill your medications for you based on that list. If you have any trouble, Walmart pharmacy will fill those prescriptions.
7) If you have pets, get your vet to print off a list of your pet's vaccination records. They do that a LOT for owners before a hurricane hits an area. If you have to evac with your pet, you have a complete listing (which may come in handy).
8) Most stores that will re-open in early days after a hurricane will not have electricity. They will operate during the day and take CASH ONLY. Use your credit cards before the storm, but keep cash on hand.
9) Get a decent map of your area and learn all of the back roads that can get you into your county (avoiding all the highways or main roads when possible). That way, when the national guard sets up roadblocks at the county lines or on the bridges to keep people from returning... you can still get home using the back roads and just drive around them. Once you are in the county, they aren't authorized to kick you out again.
10) Volunteer if possible. The local Home Depot or Walmart or Target parking lot or a mall parking lot is probably where agencies will set up to assist. Volunteers will be needed. It's a good way to stay busy, there is more food there than you could possibly eat (no need to do your own cooking) and you get updates on all the latest developments from the police and rescue workers. You'll know what's happening in your area... which will make time go by a bit quicker.
Those are just a few suggestions. Oh.. and while all the stores are being flooded with people rushing to get supplies... don't overlook stopping by the 99-Cent store or the DollarTree. They have plenty of candles, lighters, gallons of water, canned food, etc... and most people don't think of going there. Last few times I tried, there was plenty of supplies and nearly no lines while other supermarkets were swamped.
Sounds about right to me. Hurricane by Tuesday PM IMO.
When one puts something of value in harms way, it should be taken in stride...
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 AUG 2011 Time : 024500 UTC
Lat : 16:11:34 N Lon : 85:09:33 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 993.2mb/ 55.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.6 4.2
All I have to say about this projected path is 'UGH!'
Still in some fairly dry air.....although 97L appears to be making its own mositure.
I'm curious to see what other FL folks who remember 2004 think....
15 hours out
If you're far enough inland that storm surge isn't an issue:
Have food & water to make it 72 hours on your own. This sounds dire, but when you figure that it can take half a day just for the storm to pass... Even if you don't get hit directly, between power being out and stores not getting deliveries, it could be a few days before you can get groceries.
Fill your prescriptions if you can. If you have meds that need to stay cold, leave town.
Keep your gas tanks full - gas stations don't work without electricity and the few that have it won't have enough gas for everyone.
Put important papers in a water-proof, fire-proof strongbox/safe. Fires are a real danger with the fire department overtaxed and roads blocked by debris. Alternately, a safety deposit box.
Find out which of your neighbors own gas powered chainsaws and be really nice to them... those things come in handy.
A well stocked first-aid kit never hurts. I don't mean a 10 dollar bag with band-aids and neosporin. You want the 40-50 dollar one that is stocked with a tourniquet, gauze, burn creme, maybe a splint. ERs will be packed, be prepared to handle small stuff on your own and be extra nice to that nurse that lives down the street.
Turn your cellphone off if you don't have service - after Hurricane Ike all our cells died FAST because they were constantly looking for service.
Find out your city's plan for disseminating information and organizing afterward. Radio is common and there is usually a dedicated station for updates. There are usually other means too - newsletters posted at the community center etc.
I just talked to hubby and he is guessing that if it does form, they would start Phase 3 on Monday. It's so much work to get it all secure and people safely off the rig/platforms.
That's 99L
24 hours out
What the heck are those models, you ask? Glad you did, the key: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/models.htm l
am be back in the AM
YAY
i can sleep in for once
Oh wow so I guess I'm not totally off my rocker, lol
Hate to go out n'buy all this STUFF, as my area never gets hit, but still...just kinda pondering what to do.
27 hours out almost to the lesser Antilles
You ever been to Clearwater, St. Pete, and Tampa areas......It really does not matter as we all have beach fronts if a storm comes toward the bay......it really would not matter.
Data is correlating...falling pressures, rising wind speeds!!!
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