Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2011

+48

Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.

Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.

Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.

Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.

Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.

Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 5351 - 5401

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 139 | 140 | 141 | 142 | 143 | 144 | 145 | 146 | 147 | 148 | 149 | 150 | 151 | 152 | 153 | 154 | 155 | 156 | 157 | 158 | 159 | 160 — Blog Index

5351. HurricaneHunterJoe 2:52 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting weatherguy03: I still believe South Carolina/North Carolina is going to feel the brunt of Irene. Irene won't be able to make it that far north due to the ridge rebuilding west Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2697

5352. tropicfreak 2:52 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Tropical Storm IRENE Storm Archive ...IRENE STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES PUERTO RICO... 11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 21 Location: 17.9°N 65.5°W Max sustained: 70 mph Moving: WNW at 15 mph Min pressure: 993 mb Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

5353. southbeachdude 2:52 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
cone shifted right via TWC .... 70MPH Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 694

5354. emguy 2:52 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
I knew they would be hardpressed to upgrate to hurricane with a 993 MB pressure. They usually look at 988 as the threashold and the storm is still washing out some dry air near the center. Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 569

5355. MiamiHurricanes09 2:53 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx: Farther west with track. LOL. LOL, NHC must lurk on here. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

5356. lottotexas 2:53 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Cone moved east ! Member Since: December 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4

5357. Bluestorm5 2:53 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Path shifted to east. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3678

5358. southbeachdude 2:53 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
cone shifted right via TWC .... 70MPH Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 694

5359. nigel20 2:53 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: yup Taz saw your comment earlier and you're right, we are already over 5300 comments. Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4553

5360. AllyBama 2:53 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Why not designate "ONE" person to post the update.. Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 131 Comments: 20499

5361. Relix 2:53 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Consistency I guess Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

5362. ncstorm 2:53 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8479

5363. MiamiHurricanes09 2:53 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting southbeachdude: cone shifted right via TWC .... 70MPH Left...actually. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

5364. NCHurricane2009 2:53 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Note the continued rightward shift of the cone....the chances of an east coast major event continue to rise... Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

5365. stormpetrol 2:53 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 21 Location: 17.9�N 65.5�W Max sustained: 70 mph Moving: WNW at 15 mph Min pressure: 993 mb just as said , go back and look Quoting stormpetrol: Wouldn't surprise me to see the NHC keep at it WNW or even 70 mph!just saying....., if they upgrade to hurricane 75mph with movement West would surprise the hell out of me , just been watching them too long..... Oh wait I found it , goodnight! Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6404

5366. MississippiWx 2:53 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: LOL, NHC must lurk on here. Lol...I was wrong. My track had not updated from 11AM this morning for some reason. It's east. Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 8651

5367. Tazmanian 2:54 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting interstatelover7165: 000 WTNT44 KNHC 212045 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011 IRENE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ITS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH CURVED BANDS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVATIONS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IRENE AROUND 0000 UTC. WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE STORM...THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE LAND INTERACTION. IF IRENE MOVES OVER MORE OF HISPANIOLA OR OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CUBA IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED HERE...HOWEVER IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP MOVING TO THE NORTH OF BOTH OF THOSE LAND MASSES IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE LATEST LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS NOW NEAR 285/15. IRENE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR 1 TO 2 DAYS WHICH WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO...AND NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE RIGHT AROUND DAY 3. SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND SO HAS THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5 SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES RESPECTIVELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 17.7N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 18.2N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/1800Z 18.9N 69.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0600Z 19.6N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1800Z 20.3N 73.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 24/1800Z 22.7N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 25.5N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER PASCH old Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

5368. luigi18 2:54 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting goldenpixie1: G'evening all! Waiting on the latest news and possible upgrade. Hope y'all are safe! Thanks Bayamon,Pr blowing nicely! Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 452

5369. yoboi 2:54 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
tracking west watch tomm eve nola will be in the cone Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2421

5370. lordhuracan01 2:54 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
...IRENE STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES PUERTO RICO... 11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 21 Location: 17.9°N 65.5°W Max sustained: 70 mph Moving: WNW at 15 mph Min pressure: 993 mb Member Since: August 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 225

5371. steelmagnolia44 2:54 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Received a message from a friend that my earlier post was deleted for "volating community standards". I apologize. Thought I was providing some info about a weather site that other members had requested. I read the community standards and don't understand the violation, but so be it. Steel Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 41

5372. southbeachdude 2:54 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
cone shifted right via TWC .... 70MPH Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 694

5374. atmosweather 2:54 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Same here. That's what I was thinking lol. I guess the fact that the SMFR reading was rain contaminated and because there was only one hurricane force surface wind report made them think twice. Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

5375. AllyBama 2:55 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
well, if it shifted right then it didn't shift far enough for me..I am trying to get OUT of the cone!..lol Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 131 Comments: 20499

5376. HadesGodWyvern 2:55 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Forecast and Intensity for AL092011 (IRENE) ========================================== 24 HRS: 19.4N 70.1W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone) 48 HRS: 20.9N 73.9W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone) 72 HRS 23.5N 77.0W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/Cat 1) Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36689

5377. xcool 2:55 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
iknow NAM is not Tropical model Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

5378. ncstorm 2:55 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
I believe they waited to shift left for the 11:00 news..time to inform the public of what may be.. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8479

5379. TigerFanOrl 2:55 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
For the most part what I said was the truth. A storm can't go eight different directions at one time so for the most part anyone that wants to know what's really going on they should check for themselves. Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34

5380. interstatelover7165 2:55 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
00 WTNT34 KNHC 220251 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011 ...IRENE STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 65.5W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA * THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM FROM THE CENTER. A STATION AT SALT RIVER BAY ON ST. CROIX RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 57 MPH...92 KM/H. ROOSEVELT ROADS NAVAL STATION ON PUERTO RICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/H. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 873

5381. southbeachdude 2:55 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
cone shifted right via TWC .... 70MPH Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 694

5383. tropicfreak 2:55 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

5384. 900MB 2:55 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
NHC keeps downcasting compared to the hot models! Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 609

5385. tiggeriffic 2:55 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Left...actually. they just said right on tv as well...S FL was in the center of the cone...now cone has moved east Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

5386. JLPR2 2:55 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
ha! Was kept as a TS. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

5387. Tazmanian 2:56 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting P451: You own bears? no i dont own bears lol this playing a round with the nhc Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

5388. kmanislander 2:56 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting P451: 70mph, 285 heading. Seems to be just right. Those two dropsondes from recon do not show 285, more like 275. I guess the NHC has discounted that as short term. Hopefully the plane will do one more pass for the center before heading home. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

5389. Ameister12 2:56 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA * THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3518

5390. HCW 2:56 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1280

5391. RedrumATL 2:56 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting tiggeriffic: crap...even our local on the 8s say tropical weather for sat...new updates...at 70mph...new cone too...shift to the right As suspected! Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 106

5392. emguy 2:56 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
If this track were to verify...the interview the Psychic Twins did on the View about 6 weeks ago will have them championing victory. For those of you that were not on here during that time, I think the video of their Hurricane forecast is on YouTube. Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 569

5393. NCHurricane2009 2:56 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting AllyBama: well, if it shifted right then it didn't shift far enough for me..I am trying to get OUT of the cone!..lol But you are barely in the cone right now...so that is better for you....right? Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

5394. MiamiHurricanes09 2:57 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting tiggeriffic: they just said right on tv as well...S FL was in the center of the cone...now cone has moved east Yeah yeah, you're right LOL. Was looking at the incorrect graph. Nevertheless, Florida is still very much in the mix of getting this cyclone. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

5395. ncstorm 2:57 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
what happened to the "s" over florida on the NHC cone..people, if you havent prepared, you betta get on it..the stores will be ridiculous starting tomorrow in florida and bahamas Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8479

5396. BiloxiGirl 2:57 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Whew... guess we in the Cent. GOM can breathe a little easier.....crossing fingers, saying prayers, hoping for some luck. Member Since: August 15, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 56

5397. Thrawst 2:57 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting Ameister12: WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LOVELY... Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 49 Comments: 1066

5398. scott39 2:57 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Left...actually. Im confused Irene shifted left but cone went to the right?? Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

5399. Hurricanes101 2:57 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
East is right, West is left folks lol looks like it shifted right to me Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

5400. NCHurricane2009 2:57 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Quoting P451: 70mph, 285 heading. Seems to be just right. Is a 285 heading enough for Irene to only graze the north DR coast and not go far inland into Hispaniola? Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

5401. HCW 2:57 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Irene took out the P.R radar Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1280

Viewing: 5351 - 5401

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters