Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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estoy q voy a comprar newports y darme las 2 birras con un pana. tu sabes lo que es que no se mueva una hoja en 24 horas?
y pasar 12 en Wunderground :/ dando F5
Completely normal around here...I have learned to listen to a few, and be entertained by the rest.
thanks
-0mph in ponce, half-clear skies lol
I can tell you 1 thing...I am very screwed if that FIM model continues to be spot on....
I think Irene is being affected by its interaction with Puerto rico.
Hahaha same here. There's like 7 people with me in my studio and we are just watching movies like nothing is happening outside. Which is basically true at the moment. The whole day for some breeze... on a system hitting us directly... something is definitely wrong here. XD!
Very strong winds and rain here in Caguas... Should not be long for you...
Carolina,PR
Rain coming down in buckets.
it has not even made land fall yet
Power is back on! Wooho!!
Still impressive winds and powerful gusts here until recently. Keep in mind my house is on the side of a mountain facing the ocean, so we get the wind uninterrupted and probably a lot stronger than other spots nearby.
Once in a while a strong gust right now but much less rain... I'm guessing we are getting at the eye.
From what I see is going on at Vieques from msphar (which during the day I can literally see from my balcony), the worst is yet to come.
If anything...the interaction just before landfall has shown + effect for Irene...its radar eye structure has really tightened up between the east coast of PR and Viequies island...its alomst as if the east shore of PR and west shore of Viequies has tightened up the convergence at the center of Irene...that eye has really come together on radar now...
not fun when youre sitting staring at the barrel of a loaded 12 gauge for 24+ hours and not a wisp stirs.
im gonna try sleep see if the gusts wake me to the fun stuff.
So far there are no reports to confirm anything more than a marginal tropical storm....considering the possibilities, PR is getting off pretty well.
I live in the Tampa Bay area and have a long enough memory, combined with enough knowledge on the subject, to know that only a fraction of those tropical cyclones which look like a possible threat five days out will in fact become a very real threat.
The Tampa Bay area is not a likely location for a direct hit by a major hurricane in late August or early September, even though it can certainly happen then. It is just unlikely to happen because of climatology and typical atmospheric dynamics this time of year.
A storm passing off our coast between say 75 and 150 miles offshore and moving in a NW or NNW direction is much more likely to happen this time of year. A storm skirting directly along the coast as it is recurving N and then NNE is also possible, though less likely. But a direct impact from a Cape Verde storm would require some gymnastic movements that are simply not very plausible. Possible, yes but probable, no.
Then again, wish-casting will never go out of fashion, so there you go. Also, the excitement of potential danger is another factor in the human condition which does not necessarily correlate with meteorological science, but is relatively common. ;-)
keep us posted. i *think* i feel a breeze in ponce. and hear some rain. finally
Glad you got power back. Is it that in PR...do they have power crews working out during Irene or something? LOL
...when I got hit by Fran in 1996...the power crews took way longer to get us power back...
El Yunque would disrupt her significantl;y if that happens.
Most likely rain contaminated.
Shifted west.
Just keep in mind that the GFS has a reduction in resolution this year compared to last, and it's done a really poor job so far this year, especially compared to last year when it was just as good as the Euro.
Esperanza winds 44 Kts. SSE gusting to 62 Kts.
Good night all...
Great job to those who insisted all day it would because it was heading due west.
Many of you need to learn to read more and post less.
Really you have 10 hour long thunderstorms with torrential tropical rain all the time in Louisiana ?
do you most keep doing that?
Still looking like the average movement for the afternoon/evening is still WNW. (that loop looks NW but prabably a wobble).
Viewing: 6151 - 6201
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