Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS IRENE AND WHAT/IF
ANY IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE ILM AREA. WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP AS SERIES OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS DIG OVER THE EASTERN
US...ALLOWING THE STORM TO TURN NORTH. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED SHIFTING THE TRACK OF IRENE EAST...BUT THERE
HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWN IN THE GUIDANCE
AND CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW. IN FACT THE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS HAS THE STORM MAKING LANDFALL ANYWHERE FROM THE EASTERN
GULF COAST TO MISSING THE EAST COAST AND RECURVING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE NEXT 24 TO 28 HOURS SHOULD PROVIDE A MUCH CLEARER
PICTURE.
Morehead City 3pm Discussion
FOCUS LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IRENE. LATEST NHC TRACK TAKES IT INTO FLA THEN N WELL
INLAND FROM THE CST. 12Z GFS IS FASTER AND FURTHER E SO AS WOULD
EXPECT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON WHERE IRENE WILL GO.
IT DOES APPEAR IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DECENT CHC OF
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA NEXT WEEKEND...SINCE SO FAR OUT HAVE SOLID CHC
POPS STARTING FRI AND CONT THRU SUNDAY AND CAN RAISE THESE LATER AS
FORECAST BECOMES MORE CLEAR. ALL INTERESTS SHLD CONT TO MONITOR
LATEST FORECASTS FROM NHC FOR IRENE AS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON ERN NC.
Well...its good...keeps the balance of the blog instead of all gloom and doom...
....better than mine certainly....mine is so boring (nuthin)....
Hello USA, do you know when the trough is suppose to move in or maybe have a piture of it coming.I am curious to see when she is suppose to start heading northwest again, and how strong the trough is right now. Thank you
Would seem that way. Certainly no difficulties with water, it's all 29 degrees and above. The ULAC should stop shear from becoming a problem. Environment is fairly moist around that area too.
~25mph gusts, and a lot of rain, some thunder after it passed.
I like the song, too. But I also agree with your last sentence. What about these???
Link
I feel just at home here! Glad several others are looking at this the same way I am... as we are all naturally inclined to think about impacts to ourselves first. This storm is looking better every frame, the models shifting closer to us every run... I am starting to really think this could be coming our general way, after nearly losing interest just 2 days ago on the farrrr east part of the "cone"
Nah that's her backyard in Vega Alta.
Slim.
& nbsp; &nb sp; 6hr ; 12hr &nbs p; 18hr &nbs p; 24hr
*Very Favorable* VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
The UW-CIMSS is estimating a steady decline. Irene continues to impress.
Looking at radar, seems Irene is trying to form an eyewall, and is just east of St. Croix.
Very slim.
Irene's forward speed may slow a bit if/when she makes a turn. Still moving at 20 mph from the information I've seen.
Yeah...its called eye of the storm by stephen arnold music as the posters on youtube say....
It really set the mood when it debuted for Katrina...that was a very very weird day....
What latitude do you judge it to be....?
I wonder what this year's music will be. I'm sure they'll use it for Irene.
St. Croix, Irene is north and east of the forecast path.
The NHC forecast path is south of St. Croix.
Maybe.
Just keep an eye on it. However, direct impacts to Tampa do not look likely at this time...especially with Irene's northward shifts.
We may here it anyways...
Hey, if you had to leave Wilmington, which school is open for shelter? I know Wake/Johnston counties is taking care of that, but I'm wondering if it's my school.
Yeah...Probably none.
LOL...I like'd the 2005 one they did for Dennis in that video...the rest stank.....
I'm only 14, I don't know!
LOL!
It's not going to the GOM.
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS IRENE AND WHAT/IF
ANY IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE ILM AREA. WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP AS SERIES OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS DIG OVER THE EASTERN
US...ALLOWING THE STORM TO TURN NORTH. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGEGUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED SHIFTING THE TRACK OF IRENE EAST...BUT THERE
HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWN IN THE GUIDANCE
AND CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW. IN FACT THE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS HAS THE STORM MAKING LANDFALL ANYWHERE FROM THE EASTERN
GULF COAST TO MISSING THE EAST COAST AND RECURVING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE NEXT 24 TO 28 HOURS SHOULD PROVIDE A MUCH CLEARER
PICTURE.
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