Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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4:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 21
Location: 18.6°N 93.8°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Wonder if he will reorganize and head for Texas.
i have to agree with you there on PR radar it looks ike its moveing DUE WEST
Harvey still alive... 30 Mph 1007 MB And still not final advisory on him...
Yep...when the storm gets closer to the radar...the radar sees what's going on at the storm base better than anything else....
...on the other hand...if radar far from the storm...it tends to see what is going on higher up than at the surface...but now since Irene closing in on radar position...this is not the case...
5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 21
Location: 17.7°N 64.4°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011
...CENTER OF IRENE NEAR ST. CROIX...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 64.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
West
Based on echo drifts and surface obs, I believe it is somewhere here:
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 21
Location: 17.7°N 64.4°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Ugh...Harvey is so annoying...for some reason its getting on my nerves...LOL
she's heading west now and in fact a bit of southwest wobble took place. at this rate she will either pass just south or skirt the south coast of PR
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011
...CENTER OF IRENE NEAR ST. CROIX...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 64.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO THE BORDER WITH
HAITI.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
FURTHER SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER
OF IRENE WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND NEAR
OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
HURRICANE INTENSITY ON MONDAY. WEAKENING IS LIKELY LATER ON MONDAY
AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES THIS EVENING...AND IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
TONIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3
TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Unfortunately (for drought resaons in Texas)...this won't happen..stiff steering to keep Harvey west-northwest...
XTRP is the Chuck Norris of not-a-model models.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011
IRENE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ITS APPEARANCE ON
SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH CURVED BANDS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVATIONS
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS.
ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IRENE
AROUND 0000 UTC. WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE STORM...THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT TO
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE LAND
INTERACTION. IF IRENE MOVES OVER MORE OF HISPANIOLA OR OVER PARTS
OF EASTERN CUBA IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED
HERE...HOWEVER IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP MOVING TO THE NORTH OF BOTH OF
THOSE LAND MASSES IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN EXPECTED. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE LATEST LGEM
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS NOW NEAR 285/15. IRENE
CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR 1 TO 2 DAYS
WHICH WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO...AND NEAR OR
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COUPLE OF
TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE RIGHT AROUND
DAY 3. SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SUCH AS THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND SO
HAS THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT
DAYS 4 TO 5 SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE
FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES RESPECTIVELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 17.7N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 18.2N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/1800Z 18.9N 69.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/0600Z 19.6N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1800Z 20.3N 73.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/1800Z 22.7N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 25.5N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Fran was a cat 3 when it made landfall in NC.
Just ESE of St. Croix.
As a few were saying.
9-0-0
Levi, the immortal question:
Is that trying to be an eyewall?
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