Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2011

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Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.


Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.

Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.


Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.

Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.

Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico

Jeff Masters

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Looking at the 40 frame loop of the WU radar from San Juan, I see nothing but a W (around 275 degree) motion over the entire loop. That being said, landfall along SE coast of PR, going the entire length of the island before emerging into the Mona Passage. Will probably see some slight weakening over PR (about 10 mph decrease in winds), then some slight intensification over the Mona Passage (~10 mph)... net change DR as a strong TS, very low end (75mph) hurricane.
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Surprised to not see the "M" on the last hurricane marker in the cone. Very conservative strength forecast from NHC.
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http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2 011082118-irene09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=A nimation


I don't like how the HWFR model moves back West right at the end of the loop.......that means High pressure is building back in........
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Quoting Ryuujin:
Mississippiwx,

What happens if the trough coming through isn't as strong or is far more shallow than what is currently predicted. How will that affect Irene's steering pattern?


It would most likely go farther west, more in line with the GFDL and UKMET models. However, those 2 models are really the only 2 that see anything like that solution.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10250
Quoting Thunderpig75:
I'm right in the middle of the cone. There is a little black circle h above my head. Yay for me!

Yeah, I got a little black circle h right next to me for Thursday at 8 p.m. EST
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Quoting P451:


I was.

I'm amazed a half a dozen individuals chalked me up as a troll with that one post.... ignoring all the others made all day long LOL

Wow....just wow.

:|



Don't let 451 become the degree of your temper. You've posted well all day. Let it roll off. This blog has done well in recent days - no reason to stop now when things get a little tense. I for one thank you for your posts - keep'em coming!
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Well

Baha,

this update still leaves me with a glimmer of optimistic hope,
but looks worse for you folks.

Hang in there.

CRS
One by one, my glimmers have gone out today.... [sigh] Guess I've got preps to do in the morning... must be able to blog! lol
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3rd time WU crashes for me. Ya'll goin crazy lol.
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Quoting JasonIsATOOLMan:
KAT-IRENE-A!!

This thing is gonna go up the middle of Florida probably with all that hot water in the Bahamas and around the islands dont matter if it touches the Hispanilla a little bit its gonna grow so big it will go from Marathon Key thru Okechobbe and still stay a cat 3 all of Florida is in danger, will feel the trof and skeet out to the east probably right about St Augustine then Watch out N. Carolina.



Aquak where is that head banger????
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Strengthening 92mph passing directly over my head in Jupiter. Hoping for more shifts eastward....

I think you will see it happen...you have to admit that things get better for us with every report.
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Channel 10 in South Florida is very lucky to have Max Mayfield. I just love that guy and the way he explains things.
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goin to bed...gotta post signs again in the morning at the preschool for impending weather...our parents think that even if there is a cane or blizzard they should be able to bring their kids for us to watch so they can go get ready for a storm...guess we are not supposed to close according to them...
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this is wrong

doesnt count inland over PR

Forecast positions and Max winds


init 22/0300z 17.9n 65.5w 60 kt 70 mph
12h 22/1200z 18.6n 67.7w 60 kt 70 mph
24h 23/0000z 19.4n 70.1w 60 kt 70 mph...inland
36h 23/1200z 20.1n 72.1w 50 kt 60 mph...over water
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Good lord 1400 comments while I had dinner!

I guess

Florida landfall 25% chance
Georgia landfall 10% chance
South Carolina landfall 50% chance
North Carolina landfall 10% chance

With 5% left over for Irene dying, going out to sea or heading through the Florida straits into the Gulf. All unlikely options.

What do you think?


IMHO

Florida-60%
Georgia- 5%
South Carolina-20%
North Carolina-15%

JMHO
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Quoting emcf30:

LOL, we were talking about that the other night on here


What did they say exactly?
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5455. scott39
Quoting MississippiWx:
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AS THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND RADIAL
VELOCITIES HAVE INCREASED ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO
993 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT BASED ON A PEAK
BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUE OF 61 KT AND AN EXPANDING AREA OF 65 TO 70 KT
DOPPLER VELOCITIES AT 5500 TO 6000 FEET ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHEAST AND ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...SO THE INTENSITY OF IRENE WILL LARGELY BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER
PUERTO RICO. THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS...AND SOME
WEAKENING IS INDICATED DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...IF IRENE MOVES
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED HERE IN
36 TO 48 HOURS...OR WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF IT MOVES OVER MORE OF
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND. BEYOND 48 HOURS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS IRENE MOVES OVER WARM WATERS NEAR THE
BAHAMAS...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH LATE IN THE PERIOD
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM.

WHILE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE SLOWED ON
RADAR IMAGERY AS THE CYCLONE ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
THE LONG TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 285 DEGREES AT ABOUT
13 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A LONGWAVE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT LEAVES A
PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE BAHAMAS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
AND UKMET...ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING IRENE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD REMAINS IN THE SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN
IN THE MODEL SUITE. FOR THIS CYCLE THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED BACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF
MODELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UKMET AND GFDL FARTHER WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE FIM MODEL PROVIDED BY THE
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 17.9N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 18.6N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 19.4N 70.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 20.1N 72.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/0000Z 20.9N 73.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 23.5N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 30.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6784
5454. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
x
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5451. Ryuujin
Mississippiwx,

What happens if the trough coming through isn't as strong or is far more shallow than what is currently predicted. How will that affect Irene's steering pattern?
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I see the WU blog is alive and well,

saw a mention of RI, Florida, JFV earlier, now awaits the GW debate ha
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Quoting interstatelover7165:
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting UpperLevelLOL:
Can someone post the 11pm advisory? Not seeing it yet on the blog


Dude that was sarcasm, stop spamming the thread
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Looks like the GFDL Model just went even further WEST......GEESH
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Quoting P451:


I was.

I'm amazed a half a dozen individuals chalked me up as a troll with that one post.... ignoring all the others made all day long LOL

Wow....just wow.

:|



You should not be concerned. What do you expect in a "public" forum anyway...
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5445. Thrawst
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Watching Weather Channel... *facepalm with Threat Level*... HIGH RISK FOR CUBA? MEDIUM RISK FOR BAHAMAS/FLORIDA/SE USA?


This is a new level... and the models are ever so slightly shifting EAST.
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From 6th advisory discussion.

SOME INTENSIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER
PUERTO RICO.
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I'm right in the middle of the cone. There is a little black circle h above my head. Yay for me!
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5442. Skyepony (Mod)
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Watching Weather Channel... *facepalm with Threat Level*... HIGH RISK FOR CUBA? MEDIUM RISK FOR BAHAMAS/FLORIDA/SE USA?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8009
Quoting ncstorm:


That's looking scary folks! It has totally shifted to it's benefit ALL DAY!
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blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting UpperLevelLOL:
Can someone post the 11pm advisory? Not seeing it yet on the blog
00WTNT34 KNHC 220251
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

...IRENE STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 65.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED< THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK
THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND
NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER
PUERTO RICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A STATION AT SALT RIVER BAY ON ST. CROIX RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 57
MPH...92 KM/H. ROOSEVELT ROADS NAVAL STATION ON PUERTO RICO
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. THE
HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3
TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



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Quoting BiloxiGirl:
Whew... guess we in the Cent. GOM can breathe a little easier.....crossing fingers, saying prayers, hoping for some luck.
amen to that
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5437. nigel20
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I'd say that Haiti shouldn't get a direct strike on Irene's current heading...at most some of the outer SW rain bands....not worst case scenario for Haiti anymore...

That would be great for Haiti.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Note the continued rightward shift of the cone....the chances of an east coast major event continue to rise...


2 shifts..big deal. Two major models continue to show a much more westward track..and truth is..we do not know exactly what will happen until after the land interaction. It's still anyones storm,
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5435. emcf30
deleted
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 17.9N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 18.6N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 19.4N 70.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 20.1N 72.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/0000Z 20.9N 73.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 23.5N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 30.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
No power, On iPad. good Night.

Good night. Stay very safe!
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Quoting cyclonelover1:
What about the Herbet box? Isn't Irene going through it now?


I believe that passage through those boxes is supposed to be a generally necessary, but not sufficient, condition for Florida landfall.

WTO
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I can see a strong Cat 2(maybe a 3) off the S Carolina coast Friday. NhC needs to get moving!
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Let's just call it a hurricane shall we? A strengthening storm that they found winds of 70? OK,
lets upgrade it tomorrow. Don't really understand that.
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TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AS THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND RADIAL
VELOCITIES HAVE INCREASED ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO
993 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT BASED ON A PEAK
BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUE OF 61 KT AND AN EXPANDING AREA OF 65 TO 70 KT
DOPPLER VELOCITIES AT 5500 TO 6000 FEET ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHEAST AND ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...SO THE INTENSITY OF IRENE WILL LARGELY BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER
PUERTO RICO. THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS...AND SOME
WEAKENING IS INDICATED DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...IF IRENE MOVES
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED HERE IN
36 TO 48 HOURS...OR WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF IT MOVES OVER MORE OF
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND. BEYOND 48 HOURS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS IRENE MOVES OVER WARM WATERS NEAR THE
BAHAMAS...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH LATE IN THE PERIOD
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM.

WHILE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE SLOWED ON
RADAR IMAGERY AS THE CYCLONE ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
THE LONG TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 285 DEGREES AT ABOUT
13 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A LONGWAVE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT LEAVES A
PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE BAHAMAS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
AND UKMET...ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING IRENE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD REMAINS IN THE SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN
IN THE MODEL SUITE. FOR THIS CYCLE THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED BACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF
MODELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UKMET AND GFDL FARTHER WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE FIM MODEL PROVIDED BY THE
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 17.9N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 18.6N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 19.4N 70.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 20.1N 72.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/0000Z 20.9N 73.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 23.5N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 30.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10250
Quoting P451:


I was.

I'm amazed a half a dozen individuals chalked me up as a troll with that one post.... ignoring all the others made all day long LOL

Wow....just wow.

:|



haven't been here all day...didnt get on first time till around 2ish...then left, on 5-10 min around 5pm, then left, and on for short time this evening...at least i acknowleged my error
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5427. Ryuujin
With its current motion, I just don't see Irene running over Hispanola. I believe it will continue it's WNW track over the edge of PR, and into the Bahamas. From there? No idea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

Hopefully Irene misses Haiti in its entirety, they can't deal with a storm at the moment.


I'd say that Haiti shouldn't get a direct strike on Irene's current heading...at most some of the outer SW rain bands....not worst case scenario for Haiti anymore...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 477 Comments: 3671
Quoting HCW:


Holy bat, Crapman!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah yeah, you're right LOL. Was looking at the incorrect graph. Nevertheless, Florida is still very much in the mix of getting this cyclone.



Strengthening 92mph passing directly over my head in Jupiter. Hoping for more shifts eastward....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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