Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
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Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Post 3088
ok
She is blessed to have a father who stays on top of the situation. I am sure she is getting lots of good information from you to help her understand what's happening. A lot of fear comes from a lack of knowledge...
I know, so annoying... Just like I was wondering why that frisbee keeps getting bigger and then it hits me..
Make it back up to Tallahassee already?
Link
It's a partial eye, but she is building an eyewall...
Then the central pressure should be 995-996 mb.
We all stay in during a storm. People in lower elevations go to shelters, if they want to, unless the risk is so high they are forced to leave their homes and go to the shelter.
Don't let anyone pull a Storm Watch on you.
His loss is still felt. If you leave, this blog is pretty kaput.
yuppers
The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormIrene's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Irene's travel-speed was 16.5mph(26.6k/h) on a heading of 299.4degrees(NNW)
TS.Irene was headed toward passage over Culebra,PuertoRico ~3hours from now
Copy&paste puj, 14.6n57.0w-15.0n59.0w, 15.0n59.0w-16.0n60.4w, 16.0n60.4w-16.8n62.4w, 16.8n62.4w-17.5n63.7w, cpx, 16.8n62.4w-18.31n65.24w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping (for 21August_12pmGMT)
69 hours
18z GFS
At least in Puerto Rico, people in most dangerous areas (flooding and storm surge) can go to schools which are used as shelters.
But evacuations per say, not feasible. Cant really airlift people out of the island or to safety when the whole island is to be affected.
Either way, keep in mind most our homes are concrete and can actually withstand these storms... so if you aren't in a flood prone area you can usually ride them out.
Was just about to post that. Use of that word is like fingernails on a chalkboard
Watch this bomb as it moves for the Carolinas.
A track over the Bahamas puts it over the warmest water possible, and then right up the Gulf Stream no matter where it makes landfall.
I second that about the blog being kaput if Levi left!
81 hours
18z GFS
FAIL for you.
: ir·re·gard·less Pronunciation: \ˌ ir-i-ˈ gärd-ləs\Function: adverb Etymology: probably blend of irrespective and regardless Date: circa 1912
Link
I agree, Levi is one of the reasons I come here along with others that seem to know what they are talking about.
Sorry to disappoint but according to the Merriam-Webster dictionary it is a word...
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/irregar dless
Good for you. Stick to your guns. I like moxy...
Actually, as irritating as it is, it IS in the M-W.
NONSTANDARD: Irregardless originated in dialectal American speech in the early 20th century. Its fairly widespread use in speech called it to the attention of usage commentators as early as 1927. The most frequently repeated remark about it is that “there is no such word.” There is such a word, however.
Somebody busted my chops completely when I called them on it. But even M-W says "use 'regardless'"
Otay,then.....:/
This run of the GFS will parallel the Florida Coast a couple of hundred miles offshore and make a bee line for the Carolinas, or slightly west of there. The run might be wrong, but that's what it will show.
Keep us posted as much you can; that "proto" eyewall wants to form right over PR......
Thank you
It did help
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