Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 139 | 140 | 141 | 142 | 143 | 144 | 145 | 146 | 147 | 148 | 149 | 150 | 151 | 152 | 153 | 154 | 155 | 156 | 157 | 158 | 159 | 160 — Blog Index
yeah, TWC had an awful day yesterday with their forecasting of Irene..I hope they had an office meeting this morning and got their ducks in a row..in the following days, people will be referring to them for information and they have to be on point
Yea time to be vigilant.
Link
And the UKMET...
As much as you emphasize it with your statement, lol, I would have to agree. However, look for the models to continue shifting from West to East.
People still watch that network??!!
Cheers AussieStorm.
Thanks to the 92 people that have already done this.
LOL
No need to be at the mercy of the Gods. Just avoid storm and revise cruise itinerary. Still cruise and have a wonderful time!
(Note: These are 8-minute averages, thus a reduced, somewhat, wind speed. Multiply by ~1.2, I think.)
Located here (to the right):
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 15:37Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 13
Part A...
Date: Near the closest hour of 15Z on the 21st day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 16.9N 63.1W
Location: 221 miles (356 km) to the ESE (118°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1007mb (29.74 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 24.6°C (76.3°F) 23.1°C (73.6°F) 170° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
1000mb 61m (200 ft) 24.2°C (75.6°F) 22.9°C (73.2°F) 155° (from the SSE) 11 knots (13 mph)
925mb 742m (2,434 ft) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 18.9°C (66.0°F) 155° (from the SSE) 12 knots (14 mph)
850mb 1,473m (4,833 ft) 17.2°C (63.0°F) 14.4°C (57.9°F) 190° (from the S) 4 knots (5 mph)
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 15:28Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.
Remarks Section...
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.
Splash Location: 16.93N 63.13W
Splash Time: 15:31Z
Release Location: 16.92N 63.13W
Release Time: 15:28:49Z
Splash Location: 16.93N 63.14W
Splash Time: 15:31:09Z
Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 160° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph)
should be the next center fix
She needs her strength if she is going to have to hold it together and traverse Hispanola. Perhaps she will miss that island, sparing Haiti. They really don't have the rresources to deal with a strong storm on their doorstep.
It seems pretty clear that Irene has her sights set on the East Coast. Hopefully she will arrive there with a little more to offer than a fart in the wind and a light misting of rain.
This season is unreal.
Thanks for that tidbit. Worthless but thanks.
Agreed. I am almost at that point now... My policy has been going up $2k per year for the past several years. If a hurricane hits Florida and does major damage that could change significantly.
(From the SE at ~ 63.2 mph 17.583N 62.717W
Nice sat
You forgot to run around, screaming this with your hands in the air.
Irene
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Coordinates: 17.5333N 62.7833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.7 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,541 meters (~ 5,056 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 144° at 50 knots (From the SE at ~ 57.5 mph)
Air Temp: 15.1°C* (~ 59.2°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 51 knots (~ 58.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
looks like they found the center
(~nola area)
Makes more sense given Irene's current location and motion.
Flight Level Wind 56 knots 64.4 mph
Flight Level or Surface?
Sounds like wishcasting, LOL. Follow the models. they are all in tighter agreement off the East Coast!
Not taking the western solutions seriously, myself.
JMO.
154230 1732N 06247W 8427 01541 //// +151 //// 144050 051 048 003 01
JimCantore Jim Cantore
#PuertoRico expect 40-60mph winds and 6-12 inches of rain tonight. Given how wet it's been flooding risk HIGH
9 minutes ago
I see a few red wind flags NE of the last Dropsonde off the coast of Heldens, St Kitts and Nevis.
Last one was,
Time: 15:44:00Z
Coordinates: 17.5833N 62.7167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.4 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,541 meters (~ 5,056 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 137° at 55 knots (From the SE at ~ 63.2 mph)
Air Temp: 14.9°C* (~ 58.8°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 56 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 44 knots (~ 50.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
What do the white dots mean?
Its going to Miami (guess what their from Miami)
Its going to North Carolina (from NC)
Its going to the Panhandle (from Pensacola)
Its going to Texas (from Texas)
get the picture
Also, forgot to incorporate the word DOOOOOOM...but a pretty good first effort.
Viewing: 401 - 451
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 139 | 140 | 141 | 142 | 143 | 144 | 145 | 146 | 147 | 148 | 149 | 150 | 151 | 152 | 153 | 154 | 155 | 156 | 157 | 158 | 159 | 160 — Blog Index