Hurricane Irene continues to become better organized, takes aim at Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale, and continues to be a U.S. landfall threat for anywhere from southern Florida to North Carolina. In the 5pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Irene had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Irene is moving west-northwest at 13 mph along the northern Hispaniola coastline. Estimates from radar suggest Puerto Rico has seen anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rain from Irene so far, with the heaviest rain probably being enhanced by topography. Satellite imagery shows a new burst of intense thunderstorm activity began near the center of the hurricane this afternoon, and despite land interaction, Irene continues to become larger and better organized, with tropical storm-force (39 mph) winds extending 160 miles away from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found maximum sustained winds just above 80 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 988 millibars. The strongest winds continue to be found on the north side of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for this evening, and a NOAA Gulfstream is on its way to Irene as I type.
Figure 1. True-color image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:20am EDT Monday August 22, 2011, shortly after Irene moved off the coast of Puerto Rico. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Track forecast for Irene
The models agree that the center of Irene will stay north of Hispaniola, which will allow the storm to continue to organize. The question that remains is how the trough of low pressure, which is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, will affect Hurricane Irene. The timing and strength of this trough, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, will determine just how quick Irene will turn away from the U.S. coast, if at all. This afternoon, the GFDL has finally started to inch its forecast track to the east, with a landfall in southern Florida. Both the HWRF and the UKMET models are suggesting a landfall in South Carolina, and the ECMWF and the GFS are forecasting a brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a track north of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, and through the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. While the center of the Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty has Irene making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border, it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction. The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas.
Intensity forecast for Irene
The environment around Hurricane Irene remains moist, and wind shear is expected to remain relatively low (5 to 15 knots) along its forecast path over the next 5 days. Sea surface temperatures are certainly warm enough (29-30°C) to support intensification to a major hurricane (category 3+). Irene is still disorganized on its south side due to land interaction and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 2 hurricane tomorrow evening as it moves away from Hispaniola. Beyond that, Irene will most likely intensify into a category 3 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph. Like Jeff said this morning, however, Irene could just as easily remain a category 2, or even reach category 4 wind speeds. In any case, Irene will be a powerful hurricane and a serious threat to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Don't quote me on that lol. I just remember someone saying that.
About 100 according to Google Earth, but yeah, I was only estimating.
Once she gets away from land then she will get cranking. That is why I believe the outflow is not that great yet on that side.
Yup, just gotta wait a bit longer.
How ironic?
Would the microwave image show more of a surface circulation? The TRMM is actually analyzing the mid-levels instead right?
It does honestly. But i'm just saying what I say.
rut roh, she is a monster that is beginning to pull away from Hispaniola, just took a jog or wobble to the northwest in the last two frames. She is a dynamo and one that is going to take charge. Dry air does not appear to be impacting her core any more and our fears will begin to show themselves within Irene in the next 48 hours.
Not necessarilly. The NAM is a model, the North American Model, it just isn't a "tropical model." That means that it was designed for and performs better with baroclinic systems that move across the North American continent. The forecast window does include the tropics, therefore it does forecast tropical systems, but it uses algorithms that do not necessarily reflect the dynamical situation in the tropics.
puerto rico's central mountains, and a storm passing north or south of it, defines if you're going to feel anything regardless of storm size and intensity. especially if it passes to the north, with storms heavily relying on NE quadrants for strength.
please be careful with her, bahamas and USA
just arrived from a good Irene surfing session. Will post pics
you're taking the energy source away (oceans)
And even then they still can't really predict it down to the wire. As always mentioned.... prepare prepare prepare. And follow the NOAA updates. I still think its too early to tell the 48 hour forecast is still a little un-predictable as well.
Will be interesting to see tuesdays model forecast after all the number's are crunched for tracks. On other news Levi have you any thoughts on the next tropical waves emerging from Africa at the moment?
I was estimating from West End that I know is 56 miles from West Palm, looked like about 25miles. Thank You for that though, 20-30 miles could make a big difference in the winds to be experienced.
I am back from my 58th Birthday Celebration in Disney world.. now I am looking at Irene..
but while I am happy it appears to be staying east of SE Florida, I feel bad for my friends to the north...
but not that bad, we have had a few since they have so it is their turn...
I just have so much "yard art and patio furniture and potted plants" it is just so hard to get it all secured...
Will be lurking a lot in the next few days.
Thanks for the info!!
Gams
Note that the 00Z Run will have all the RAOB/Drops.
i still dont turst the mode runs
Microwave imagery depicts deep convection associated with frozen hydrometeors common in the eyewall and outer rainbands of well developed storm.
Lol...I saw three different shutter companies in my complex today.
I laughed at the last part of the bold text.. thank you for stopping by!
They also said in the Fall, just sayin'.
I don't either. Wait until 00z, then all the conditions will be plugged in.
Just got back from the Keys and shutters there have been up for a couple weeks already. Get with the program! LOL ;-)
...great.....Is it gonna hit Charleston or not???
Gonna stall right over your house.
I would hunt you down.
;-)
current run
12z run
That is true, but in general shortwave troughs are relatively weak. I live in the midwest and I know that we're not supposed to get unseasonable weather anytime soonish which would indicate a deeper drag of a trough across us and into the eastern seaboard. In fact, it's generally right on par with historical records in terms of Temp and very low in terms of rain. It will be interesting to see, that is for sure. I think it'll take one heck of a trough to dig her out, unfortunately. She's starting to snuggle up in there like a tick.
Nobody's gonna be able to give you a reliable answer this far out. Just keep a watch on Irene and within a couple of days the track should be better defined for SC.
colder water??? i have no idea
Excellent. Thank you for the clarification.
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