Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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The Hebert boxes are an interesting anomaly; even Hebert said they weren't really a good tool for determining storms that would make a CONUS landfall; more of a de facto gauge...
Irene's recent ERWC and lack of pressure rise while it was going on might be indicator of an annular storm but the question is, does she meet the other requirements? She's not as symentrial as I would think she would need to be; she has, in addition, been effected by dry air and shear more than I would expect if she were annular. On the other hand, she could go annular; annular hurricanes are not born annular, they develop the chrateristics of annular storms and typically aren't annular for very long, and I have now used that word far more than I have ever used it before...
Right, but all i seen for futurecast is straight north and then northeast for the last 4 days, yet it's only gone two directions, NW and WNW...where is this N direction coming from?
Free service will soon be in operation...
Link
We felt it here in Madison as well... just when I was finally beginning to fall asleep, dangit!
Maybe I'll have a nightcap...
Yea, they've really done well with Irene over the last couple of days.
If it's gas and radiation proof it better darn well be waterproof, too!
Thanks for posting it for me. BTW I responded to your earlier question. did you see it?
Haven't seen anyone claim it going N yet. If it's going N on my maps I need to turn my computer around.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 250540
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE NEARING THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 76.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
THIS MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 24.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TONIGHT. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST
COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...REACHING HURRICANE
FORCE LATER TODAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINS WILL
BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...BRINGING THE MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL TO 6 TO 12 INCHES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
No didn't catch it. Blog was going a little too fast..
I believe the tropical storm watch and warning are for the offshore waters but not for the land. It was also announced on the news. Its a watch and warning for boaters.
I owe you a friska........some day! :)
OMG, the "H" word and the "A" word in one comment! ;)
There's a little bit of dry air to the W- and SW on WV. She probably got a little gulp of it..
Look at WU's own tracking map for this storm it shows it N Link. Tired of being told that i'm crazy for not saying this storm will go north and i'm sure it will but i'm following this storm the same way it's been going for the last 36 hours...
They're always trying to further refine weather forecasting with natural chaos theory - that whole "a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil results in a Siberian blizzard" thing.
Location: 24.2°N 76.0°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
4.5
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsu s/Quakes/usc0005jg1.php
Take care! (And welcome here!)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE... ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE... ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE...LOCATED 105 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD WARMER WATERS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE... ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Hey, I didn't start it, honest!
Thanks I saw that also but what is the future track on it?
Yep
Location: 24.2°N 76.0°W
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE...LOCATED 105 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.
1. DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD WARMER WATERS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE... ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN
Do you mean 90L? If so it looks like a healthy well-organized disturbance that could possibly develop into a tropical depression very shortly. Most of the models for this storm turn the system NW-ward with some showing a bend back to the W, but the reliability of models with undeveloped systems is extremely poor and we must wait until anything forms before looking at possible track solutions.
Thanks for that I appreciate it!
Yea and moving ever so close to 77W
Certainly looks that way.
Bear in mind as well that despite those models (absolutely correct, they are less than stellar with weak and or forming systems) it's moving a little south of west (or was the last I saw)
Model runs are still really divergent, but I won't pay any attention unless it approaches the Lesser Antilles in any coherent fashion.
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