Irene continues to weaken
Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene continues to weaken. A 1:32 pm EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall is still gone, and the central pressure had risen to 951 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The winds measured in Irene near the surface support classifying it as a strong Category 1 hurricane or weak Category 2. Satellite imagery shows a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This is due to moderate southwesterly wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. This shear is disrupting Irene's circulation and has cut off upper-level outflow along the south side of the hurricane. No eye is visible in satellite loops, but the storm's size is certainly impressive. Long range radar out of Wilmington, North Carolina, shows that the outermost spiral bands from Irene have moved ashore over North Carolina. Winds at buoy 41004 100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 47 mph, gusting to 60 mph at 3 pm EDT, with significant wave heights of 25 feet.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:50 am EDT Friday August 26, when Irene was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. The eyewall collapsed several hours before this image was taken, and no eye is apparent. Image credit: a href=http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/ NASA.
Figure 2. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 3:30 pm EDT Friday August 26, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had about 90% of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.
Forecast for Irene
With its eyewall collapsed and just 18 more hours over water before landfall, Irene does not have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a strong Category 1 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday. Based on the latest wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 2) and Irene's continued weakening trend, I predict that the 80-mile section of North Carolina coast to the right of where Irene makes landfall will receive sustained hurricane-force winds of 75 - 85 mph on Saturday at landfall; the 80-mile section of coast to the left will receive 55 - 75 mph winds. High wind shear of 30 knots will begin ripping into Irene Sunday morning when it is near Southern New Jersey, and more rapid weakening will occur. By the time Irene arrives on Long Island Sunday afternoon, it will probably have top sustained winds in the 65 - 75 mph range. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 2) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene still rated a 5.0 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should steadily decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds when it impacts the coast. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times, the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. I continue to give a 20% chance that a 3 - 4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday. The latest 11 am probabilistic storm surge map from NHC shows a 20 - 30% chance of a storm surge in excess of 3 feet in New York Harbor (Figure 4.) Keep in mind that these maps are calculated for normal tide level, and this weekend's high tides will be nearly 1 foot above normal.
Insurance company AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Irene in the U.S. will be $1.5 - $6 billion. They estimate losses in the Caribbean at $0.5 - $1.1 billion from Irene.
Figure 3. Storm surge heights, in feet above normal tide level, which have a 20 percent chance of being exceeded during the next 3 days. The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. The exceedance heights depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.
Figure 4. Overall chance that storm surges will be greater than 3 feet above normal tide levels during the next 3 days. The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. Storm surge probabilities depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.
Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT
Wunderground meteorologists will be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Friday) at 4:30pm EDT. Shaun Tanner , Tim Roche, Angela Fritz, and Rob Carver will take your questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 — Blog Index
Yah, I can see that. The biggest problem is track and positioning. Most of the locals here don't look at the wind speed. If the storm is angling in such a way that the NE quad is going to run roughshod over say... Oregon Inlet north, then they know what is gonna flood due to storm surge. Then after the storm passes, again, depending on track, they worry about Sound side flooding.
Most of the OBX residents I know who were coming inland at least here to Elizabeth City, were Sound side residents. They'd gotten burned hard during Isabel, and didn't want to go through that again.
Not trying to downplay ANYTHING, just making a statement that the OBX residents for the most part have their head screwed on tight. If they're sitting tight, they're MORE than prepared for Irene.
same with those images Press...
Just some Friendly advice,..
Feel free to ignore it.
Link
Hope everyone to the N stays safe. I will be very interested to see what kind of surge Irene brings with her along the N SC & S NC shorelines. From the pics press sent me; Irene was all Folly could take as far as water heights without creating significant problems.
Well according to Wikipedia Europe is 3.93 million square miles in size. I'm almost positive, without doing the math on Irene, that she doesn't quite match up to that extent lol.
GFS 18Z T=384hrs
the ones i sent of Edge water were at least an hour after high tide...and the water was still over the road
I actually found this guy living in Shell Beach and I know the story....he and his wife had evacuated from Shell Beach to Chalmette, and was at his brothers house....the dog wasn't theirs....and it was lost after the storm. The family lost everything in Shell Beach....
I know...I hear ya! And thanks...
Yeah my power and cable still on..fingers crossed:)..I saw some pics of Carolina Beach..look like canal drive is getting it bad
they just left with a body they fished out right across from my house @ 4East
There you go ;)
Tip, the biggest tropical cyclone ever, would fit in the distance between Lisbon and Berlin.
New York Hurricane Irene
08/26/2011 05:24 PM EDT
Emergency Declaration number 3328 declared on Aug 26, 2011
Any chance that low is moving west?
Well, this is an area(the NE) that has had very little experience with significant cyclones. Irene is very large, even if it's "only" a Cat1 in the Mid-Atlantic. Same thing happened with Igor in Newfoundland last year. Not to mention, the effects it could have in NC.
they were removed...my guess is Jeff did it himself...he's a class act...
With that high above it, it probably is.
One soul claimed by the Storm
Tragic and so easily preventable.
Thanks!!!
was that the kite boarder that was seen somewhere round Sullivan's/IOP ?
That sucks...I'm assuming by body you meant deceased. Goes to show it was one of those folks that did NOT know what they were doing. Only the experts should have been out there today.
Can you wumail me those pictures as well or post them up here for everyone to see? TIA.
I dunno...but, yea, SJ...quite dead
Just kidding...how are you doing? Getting TS conditions I assume?
just now downloading from phone to photobucket...i had text em to press...inbox a cell # and i will send u them...
Coordinates: 32.3N 76.9833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.5 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,709 meters (~ 8,888 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 949.4 mb (~ 28.04 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 107° at 10 knots (From the ESE at ~ 11.5 mph)
Air Temp: 15.0°C (~ 59.0°F)
Dew Pt: 10.5°C (~ 50.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 16 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
That's the lowest pressure this pass. Very little change.
Oh that is so sad. :(
I guess that just answered my question...
Get it, but F2 and F3 tornados have hit down town high rises in Atlanta and Dallas and no real loss of life. These strikes were much more intense and worse than cat 1 winds and perhaps TS winds by the time it even gets there. Again, if he is going to scare everyone, where does he expect them to go.
If they were intellectually honest, they would mention that high rises have sustained direct hits by tornadoes and survived. They just conveniently leave out objective details and play on the subjective.
Viewing: 751 - 801
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 — Blog Index