Irene continues to weaken
Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene continues to weaken. A 1:32 pm EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall is still gone, and the central pressure had risen to 951 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The winds measured in Irene near the surface support classifying it as a strong Category 1 hurricane or weak Category 2. Satellite imagery shows a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This is due to moderate southwesterly wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. This shear is disrupting Irene's circulation and has cut off upper-level outflow along the south side of the hurricane. No eye is visible in satellite loops, but the storm's size is certainly impressive. Long range radar out of Wilmington, North Carolina, shows that the outermost spiral bands from Irene have moved ashore over North Carolina. Winds at buoy 41004 100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 47 mph, gusting to 60 mph at 3 pm EDT, with significant wave heights of 25 feet.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:50 am EDT Friday August 26, when Irene was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. The eyewall collapsed several hours before this image was taken, and no eye is apparent. Image credit: a href=http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/ NASA.
Figure 2. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 3:30 pm EDT Friday August 26, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had about 90% of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.
Forecast for Irene
With its eyewall collapsed and just 18 more hours over water before landfall, Irene does not have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a strong Category 1 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday. Based on the latest wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 2) and Irene's continued weakening trend, I predict that the 80-mile section of North Carolina coast to the right of where Irene makes landfall will receive sustained hurricane-force winds of 75 - 85 mph on Saturday at landfall; the 80-mile section of coast to the left will receive 55 - 75 mph winds. High wind shear of 30 knots will begin ripping into Irene Sunday morning when it is near Southern New Jersey, and more rapid weakening will occur. By the time Irene arrives on Long Island Sunday afternoon, it will probably have top sustained winds in the 65 - 75 mph range. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 2) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene still rated a 5.0 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should steadily decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds when it impacts the coast. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times, the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. I continue to give a 20% chance that a 3 - 4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday. The latest 11 am probabilistic storm surge map from NHC shows a 20 - 30% chance of a storm surge in excess of 3 feet in New York Harbor (Figure 4.) Keep in mind that these maps are calculated for normal tide level, and this weekend's high tides will be nearly 1 foot above normal.
Insurance company AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Irene in the U.S. will be $1.5 - $6 billion. They estimate losses in the Caribbean at $0.5 - $1.1 billion from Irene.
Figure 3. Storm surge heights, in feet above normal tide level, which have a 20 percent chance of being exceeded during the next 3 days. The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. The exceedance heights depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.
Figure 4. Overall chance that storm surges will be greater than 3 feet above normal tide levels during the next 3 days. The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. Storm surge probabilities depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.
Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT
Wunderground meteorologists will be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Friday) at 4:30pm EDT. Shaun Tanner , Tim Roche, Angela Fritz, and Rob Carver will take your questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I have a different dropsonde reading at 32.03N 76.85W
Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
969mb (Surface) 115° (from the ESE) 76 knots (87 mph)
948mb 115° (from the ESE) 96 knots (110 mph)
941mb 120° (from the ESE) 96 knots (110 mph)
935mb 120° (from the ESE) 102 knots (117 mph)
927mb 120° (from the ESE) 98 knots (113 mph)
918mb 125° (from the SE) 101 knots (116 mph)
911mb 125° (from the SE) 96 knots (110 mph)
885mb 130° (from the SE) 94 knots (108 mph)
876mb 135° (from the SE) 98 knots (113 mph)
850mb 135° (from the SE) 91 knots (105 mph)
772mb 140° (from the SE) 76 knots (87 mph)
697mb 145° (from the SE) 83 knots (96 mph)
The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.
She will probably be known for water damage, not wind, which has always been the biggest concern with this storm. She is capable of doing a lot after a record month of rain in the northeast, and with her storm surge that will be characteristic of a much stronger hurricane.
How so TA? I seem to think "TD10" is going to be moving further west than expect. Wait didn't TD10 dissipate in 2005 before becoming Katrina?
Woman fleeing Irene killed in Nash wreck
Not from Tropical Depression 10, but from the wave located over Western Africa.
URNT12 KNHC 262117 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 26/20:38:40Z
B. 31 deg 36 min N
077 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2665 m
D. 65 kt
E. 240 deg 56 nm
F. 331 deg 77 kt
G. 236 deg 79 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 11 C / 3048 m
J. 15 C / 3053 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2909A IRENE OB 04 CCA
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 91 KT NE QUAD 20:59:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 229 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR
INBOUND PK FL WNDS SW QUAD 78 KTS AT 79 NM RADIUS AND SECONDARY PEAK 76 KTS AT 36 NM
ONE INNER EYEWALL FRAGMENT NE QUAD WITHIN 12 NM OF FIX
PEAK WINDS FOUND IN OUTER RAINBAND 34 NM TO THE NE
This is the problem...she still has a fragment of her previous eyewall, but the rest of her core consists of 2 maximum wind bands 40 and 90 miles away from the center. Her organization is a mess right now. Is it impossible that she can recover this evening very quickly and build a new eyewall closer to the center? Definitely not, but its very unlikely at this point.
Levi, what is the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) for Irene?
If you say, but the data is less than two hour old. If you want to see the models and learn about the program, go here:
www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/irene2011/wind. html
Wrightsville Beach, NC
Yes that is from the NE quadrant, the one I posted was dropped in the W-ern side. Still, look at the maximum winds above the surface level...102 kts is the best she can do almost at 1,500 feet in the strongest part of the storm.
*Click on images in WU Blog to magnify them (images can be further magnified in the new window by clicking on them)
A 1000 Watt Inverter ( Converts DC battery power to 120 volts ac)
A power strip or extension cord with multiple 120 volt outlets
A vehicle 12 volt battery, marine/ RV deep cycle or cranking battery
A positive and negative connection between the Inverter & vehicle battery, AWG 8 (8 gauge wiring)
Connect your modem &/or the wireless WiFi hub to the inverter as your computer requires. Turn Inverter ON & moniter the 120 volt output to the connected equipment.You will also be able to even charge the laptop battery for a short while. A deep cycle RV battery should provide at least an hour or two of run-time.Good luck to all on the East Coast through this weekend.
SP
Parmele Isle, Wrightsville Beach
RI FLAG (off)
RD FLAG (FLAG)
WEAKENING FLAG (ON)
MARK
33.32n/76.92w forecast point
ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
There was no eyewall earlier :P
Thanks ..you give an excellent analysis on here +1..some of the best..please keep it up!
Cat 3.
Agree.
Memo to Irene: Feel free to become even weaker!!!
VERY TRUE...windows blown out in Ike in downtown Houston and debris from skyscraper rooftops very deadly! Stuff up there from years that flys around.
Really? :P
Indications from recon wind data are that if she's going to form even a partial new eyewall, it should be about 30 miles across, as that is where the wind maxima begin.
West for just a while, and then picked up by a trough.
Winds at the top of high rise buildings and skyscrapers will be about 1 Category higher than the maximum surface winds.
You still have electricity :>P
For now, lol.
What area?
768
WHXX01 KWBC 261924
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1924 UTC FRI AUG 26 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110826 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110826 1800 110827 0600 110827 1800 110828 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.4N 60.2W 28.1N 62.2W 29.5N 64.1W 32.1N 65.6W
BAMD 27.4N 60.2W 27.0N 62.0W 26.7N 63.8W 26.7N 65.6W
BAMM 27.4N 60.2W 27.8N 62.1W 28.6N 63.8W 30.0N 65.3W
LBAR 27.4N 60.2W 27.4N 61.9W 27.5N 63.6W 28.2N 65.3W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 32KTS 30KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 32KTS 30KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110828 1800 110829 1800 110830 1800 110831 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 36.3N 66.2W 45.7N 58.5W 53.1N 39.5W 57.3N 24.9W
BAMD 27.2N 67.3W 29.4N 69.4W 32.7N 70.0W 35.5N 71.1W
BAMM 32.6N 66.4W 39.9N 64.5W 47.5N 49.2W 49.2N 21.5W
LBAR 29.4N 66.5W 32.8N 65.9W 37.7N 63.3W 42.6N 56.9W
SHIP 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.4N LONCUR = 60.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 27.4N LONM12 = 57.8W DIRM12 = 271DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 27.4N LONM24 = 54.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1015MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
NOAA plane is coming in directly from the south and the AF plane is flying through the N-ern side from east to west.
12z GFS, 144 hours. Strong TS in the open Atlantic, develops on the 31st. Intensifies into a hurricane later in the run.
12z ECMWF, 144 hours. Also shows a TS in the open Atlantic, intensifies into a Category 4 hurricane later in the run. Also worth noting that both the ECMWF and NOGAPS show a TS or hurricane in the BOC hitting Mexico. Looks like a Hermine situation if that verifies.
12z GGEM/CMC. Same as the ECMWF/GFS, probably a hurricane later in the run.
12z NOGAPS, TS in 144 hours, system in the BOC.
The name game isn't over yet after Irene.. more and more storms to come. We're not even at peak yet, that's not for two weeks.
19-20 named storms seems like a real possibility.
she isnt looking too hot right now. do you agree with what the nhc is forecasting, a cat 1 at landfall in NC? i personally dont as her pressure doesnt rise that much anymore. i see her making landfall as a cat 2
Thanks, and take care of yourself.
Your kidding me?? They removed linking from that site? Unbelievable.
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