Irene continues to weaken
Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene continues to weaken. A 1:32 pm EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall is still gone, and the central pressure had risen to 951 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The winds measured in Irene near the surface support classifying it as a strong Category 1 hurricane or weak Category 2. Satellite imagery shows a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This is due to moderate southwesterly wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. This shear is disrupting Irene's circulation and has cut off upper-level outflow along the south side of the hurricane. No eye is visible in satellite loops, but the storm's size is certainly impressive. Long range radar out of Wilmington, North Carolina, shows that the outermost spiral bands from Irene have moved ashore over North Carolina. Winds at buoy 41004 100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 47 mph, gusting to 60 mph at 3 pm EDT, with significant wave heights of 25 feet.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:50 am EDT Friday August 26, when Irene was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. The eyewall collapsed several hours before this image was taken, and no eye is apparent. Image credit: a href=http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/ NASA.
Figure 2. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 3:30 pm EDT Friday August 26, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had about 90% of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.
Forecast for Irene
With its eyewall collapsed and just 18 more hours over water before landfall, Irene does not have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a strong Category 1 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday. Based on the latest wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 2) and Irene's continued weakening trend, I predict that the 80-mile section of North Carolina coast to the right of where Irene makes landfall will receive sustained hurricane-force winds of 75 - 85 mph on Saturday at landfall; the 80-mile section of coast to the left will receive 55 - 75 mph winds. High wind shear of 30 knots will begin ripping into Irene Sunday morning when it is near Southern New Jersey, and more rapid weakening will occur. By the time Irene arrives on Long Island Sunday afternoon, it will probably have top sustained winds in the 65 - 75 mph range. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 2) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene still rated a 5.0 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should steadily decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds when it impacts the coast. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times, the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. I continue to give a 20% chance that a 3 - 4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday. The latest 11 am probabilistic storm surge map from NHC shows a 20 - 30% chance of a storm surge in excess of 3 feet in New York Harbor (Figure 4.) Keep in mind that these maps are calculated for normal tide level, and this weekend's high tides will be nearly 1 foot above normal.
Insurance company AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Irene in the U.S. will be $1.5 - $6 billion. They estimate losses in the Caribbean at $0.5 - $1.1 billion from Irene.
Figure 3. Storm surge heights, in feet above normal tide level, which have a 20 percent chance of being exceeded during the next 3 days. The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. The exceedance heights depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.
Figure 4. Overall chance that storm surges will be greater than 3 feet above normal tide levels during the next 3 days. The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. Storm surge probabilities depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.
Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT
Wunderground meteorologists will be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Friday) at 4:30pm EDT. Shaun Tanner , Tim Roche, Angela Fritz, and Rob Carver will take your questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Was gonna say you left out a letter but then I realized something... Very good P451, and please stay safe.
Negative on the path - NHC was quite clear in their discussion on what is likely to happen (this has outstanding model support as well) - Irene will make landfall in the OBX and then move near the coastline throughout the day tomorrow into Sunday.
From NHC discussion -
"THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP IRENE CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA."
I had it hitting Moorehead City earlier but now it looks to be headed toward cape Hatteras.....looks like more than a jog to me.
Carolina, I am from wilmington as well. Irene is not supposed to be here until 2am where we will feel hurricane force winds. You havent even begun to feel the wrath of Irene yet.
Many thanks to all on here who help the novices learn! Stay safe if you are in the storms path.
Long Island is only 120 miles long, so we could both be right, besides, the "NHC Discussion" changes on a regular basis.
Still not the best of moves...
you are somewhat correct. I think people should have to take an IQ test and score at least 100 (average) to comment in here. Most of the bickerers and bashers seem like they would have trouble achieving the IQ of a fetus.
So there is still a posibility that it stays off land... Besides everything, good news...
Its a shame that it takes a monster storm to bring so many of us out of the woodwork! : )
Hope all is well down your way...
If accurate, Levi has been stating some of those winds above the surface would like mix down to the surface upon landfall - means some could face 100/110+ winds at the surface, especially with wind gusts..
Yep -- it is a shame.
Watching on all these great places I've visited and lived up and down the coast, makes me sad.
Out for the night, I hope, everyone stay safe.
How close to Delmarva we talkin' here?
Woot!
I live in Hattiesburg...winds well over 100mph here.
Katrina Radar Loop
Next time I'll trust my instincts and gut and live with what happens. I feel dumb and misled right now.
You have another ? hours before actually being hit.. Don't congradulate yourself yet
Best i can tell you from who is on. Levi32, Progressivepulse and P451. No intent to offend others....Just saw reedzone, he is good also.
The frictional effects of those winds traveling over land will bring those 2,000-3,000 foot winds down to the surface. If you look at the readings from the SFMR instrument, portions of the coastline and those close to the shore can expect winds around 10-15% higher since they are going to be over land not over the ocean where there is little to no friction.
Still trying to determine if friends left --- I am pretty sure they did since they have a brain and their home is beachfront.... But I hate to see the damage along the Outerbanks and all along the east coast. : (
There have been 550 deaths from tornadoes in the USA this year. If we have three more this year will be in second place for tornado fatalities.
Yep - I am in DC so we are under a Tropical Storm warning and expecting Tropical Storm conditions (30/40 mph with higher gusts) - but the Hurricane Warning is about 30 miles to our SE now... so any shift westward, ever so slightly, would put our region in worse conditions.
A shift eastward may keep us out of the rain shield that's currently over NC and about to enter SE Virginia...
So I'm eagerly waiting to see what things look like midday tomorrow.
In my opinion, no way it misses the Outer Banks and still a high probability of a second land fall in the New England States.
Its 500mb forecast shows the reason to be a secondary shortwave that rounds the base of the trough after the first shortwave moves by to the north over southern Canada. The NAM shows this as well. It's possible that the hurricane could phase with this 2nd shortwave and pass up a bit farther west than forecast, more over Vermont. The GFDL is not as far outside of the model pack this time around, and thus may have a better chance of being right, but it has had an incorrect left bias so far.
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