Irene sends 4.5 foot storm surge up Chesapeake Bay
The eye of Hurricane Irene is back over water, after the hurricane completed a 11-hour crossing of eastern North Carolina. Irene came ashore over Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 7:30 am EDT this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. The Cedar Island Ferry Terminal measured sustained winds of 90 mph, gusting to 115 mph at 7:19am, as measured by a Department of Transportation official. I suspect this measurement came when a thunderstorm near Irene's center collapsed, sending a powerful downburst to the surface. A trained spotter on Atlantic Beach, NC measured sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting to 101 mph at 10:35 am. The Hurricane Hunters measured 80 mph winds over water at the time of landfall. However, no regular weather station or buoy has measured sustained hurricane force winds in Irene, with the highest winds being 67 mph at the Cape Lookout, North Carolina buoy as Irene made landfall. Winds have peaked along the coast of Virginia, where sustained winds of 61 mph were observed at 6 pm EDT at Chesapeake Bay Light. Irene's passage over land weakened the storm slightly, and satellite loops show more dry air has wrapped into the storm. The radar presentation of Irene visible on the Norfolk, VA radar is still very impressive--Irene is dropping torrential rains over a huge area--but there is much less rain over the storm's southeastern quadrant, over water. Radar-estimated rainfall shows a 50 mile-wide band of 8+ inches of rain has fallen from where Irene made landfall at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, northwards to Dover, Delaware. Some isolated amounts of 15+ inches may have fallen, according to the radar estimates. Bunyan, NC has received 14.00" so far, and the towns of Washington, New Bern, Grifton, Newport-Croatan, Wonona, NC, all received more than ten inches. Norfolk, Virginia had received 7.73" as of 7pm EDT, and Suffolk, Virginia, 8.00".
Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Irene over North Carolina taken at 11:35 am EDT August 27, 2011. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Storm surge damage from Irene
The storm surge and wave action from Irene is likely to cause the storm's greatest damage. High tide is near 7 - 8 pm EDT tonight, meaning that the storm surges occurring now will be some of Irene's most damaging. The highest surges measured at any of NOAA's regular tide gauges at 8 pm were 4.5 feet at Sewells Point in Norfolk Virginia and Oregon Inlet, NC. Higher surges are occurring father inland where narrow inlets funnel the storm surge to higher elevations. It remains unclear if the ocean will overtop Manhattan's sea wall at The Battery Sunday morning during the 8 am high tide. Latest storm surge forecasts from SUNY Stony Brook predict a peak water level of 2.4 meters above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at 7:15 am Sunday, which would put the ocean right at the top of the sea wall. Presumably, waves from the hurricane's winds would then push some water over the top of the wall, but it is uncertain whether or not this would cause significant flooding. The storm surge was already 1 foot at 8 pm tonight. Storm surge flooding continues to be a major concern all along the coast of Long Island Sound; I recommend the SUNY Stony Brook storm surge page for those interested in looking at observed and predicted storm surge levels along coast New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.
Figure 2. Storm surge at Sewell's Point in Norfolk, Virginia as of 8 pm EDT Saturday August 27, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 8 pm, the storm surge was 4.5 feet. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Figure 3. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 6:30 pm EDT Saturday August 27, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters, land stations, and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had all of the storm's shrinking hurricane-force winds (yellow and orange colors.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene over water, but very few areas of land were receiving tropical storm force winds. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.
Wind damage
The emergence of Irene's eye over water will slow the storm's rate of weakening, but the storm is under too much wind shear to allow it to intensify. The latest wind distribution map from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 3) shows that all of Irene's hurricane-force winds are on the storm's east side, and also the large majority of the tropical storm-force winds. When Irene makes its 2nd landfall on Long Island, NY on Sunday, coastal locations to the right of the eye will likely experience top sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph. Coastal areas of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and the New York CIty area will mostly see top winds in the 40 - 55 mph range, since they will be on the weaker left side of the storm. Winds on the upper floors of skyscrapers will be up to 30% higher, but I expect there will be only isolated problems with New York City skyscrapers suffering blown out windows. The winds from Irene in New York City will be no worse than those experienced during some of the city's major Nor'easter winter storms of the past twenty years.
Tornadoes
Four tornadoes have been spawned by Irene, two in coastal North Carolina last night, and two in coastal Virginia today. At least two homes have been destroyed, and ten others damaged by the tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for all of coastal Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.
Links
Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Its just weird so far it hasn't happen yet. Could not have imagined what Irene would have done in the Gulf. Too much potential Heat energy and extreme water temperature still in the Caribbean and the Gulf.:0
Which was the argument I made to him yesterday. Why insult the many, when you are referring to the few.
The worst winds apparently are over the ocean.
I know what you mean about the south being the nation's punching bag, but honestly Press, I do not think there is any disinterest from folks in the south.
1) I noticed the blog was slower and smoother the other day, and put it down to admin doing something about the worse of the trolls
2) Once the track was set in stone, we did not have as much of the impassioned arguments as to track. (I mean folks would really be setting themselves up for crow dinner)- hence fewer posts.
3) Folks from "off" do not realize that many of us were taught to comment when we have something to offer (observations, local conditions etc) and otherwise listen to others when it comes to areas we are not as familiar with.
You sound tired and discouraged. Not like you at all.
Link
On another note, I just heard NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg try to speak Spanish during a news conference. That was priceless.
I am a lurker and rarely comment, but I find your opinion so cold and unfeeling I need to say something. Just because you feel like Irene was a non-event for Wilmington, doesn't mean she has not been or will not be a catastrophic event for other areas. Your comment sounded like you are down-grading her for everyone. I hope you really didn't mean it that way.
Glad to hear that..but for TWC to call themselves the "hurricane authority" and not focus on where the hurricane would and make landfall and only pinpoint future landfalls that havent even happen yet puts them at the bottom of my list and they call themselves a weather channel?..it was bias coverage at its best..
And WOW the streets of NYC are empty! People are listening.
Strong Tropical Storm: 40%
Extratropical: 35%
Hurricane: 25%
Oh God please no.
That is a tiny, tiny tremor....earthquake scale is logrithmic (sp) - A dynamite blast or a similar event could trigger that level of seismic activity
Lmao. What an unfortunate coincidence.
People are posting fake eqs on here? Why would someone do that? The real ones are already too much to contend with.
CNN has pretty good coverage.
All the foliage has pretty much recoverd now. Royal Palms I planted in my yard after Ivan that came in pots on the back of a pick up are now 40 feet high. Hard to believe the devastation to our greenery by Ivan and how it has recovered. I do miss the coconut trees when you enter East End though. So picturesque. They probably took 60 years to grow and gone in two days.I have an original painting by a well known local artist of the road into the town with all those trees. Heartbreaking to see it.The dive lodge is in the painting as well and it is gone now.
and look where it heads lol
That's a sick joke. Oh God why did the NHC just remove the "r" and the "n"?
you're a sweetheart...nah...I'm OK...my bs threshold is just at a historic all-time low ;-)
K, you might as well add Levi in that category cause he agrees with me, watch his newest video.. This IS a Historic Hurricane.
Still, Katia also a proper female name.
Being from a GoM state I primarily had the experience of watching gulf storms wind down quickly once the engine shut off as happened when Irene's eyewall collapsed yesterday. I imagined this storm would be gone by now, but it does seem to have taken on new dynamics in colder Atlantic waters.
Can you post a link for the GFS? TIA
It wasn't the National Hurricane Center's decision, it was the World Meteorological Organization's decision.
You obviously have no idea the Prep work it would take to Evuacuate close to a Million people who live in a Storm Serge Area and considering most of the
Power cables for transportation and communication run underground
And as for Bloomberg Speaking Spanish, yes it is kind of funny, but many of the people who he is responsible for speak only Spanish, so He is doing the best he can
Or she may still be at 955 mb. lol.
Broadway Cam
I do see that point, but there needs to be a surface mechanism to allow for that deepening. In the Igor example from last year, there was an amazing 50 degree Fahrenheit difference between the land areas located at the far northwest regions of Igor and the water temperatures located at the far southeast regions of Igor.
Also, this is a key component for rapidly developing noreasters, when there is a dramatic difference between the temperatures in the gulf stream and just east of it, and the much colder continental air mass.
But, what's the temp difference between the two different sides of Irene, 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit. Maybe, it's 20 degrees max. I don't think the non-tropical aspects of this storm can help to maintain this system, especially in terms of winds on the west side.
Also, pressure has weakened according to recon 4 mb in a less than 2 hour period, which strongly suggests that the weakening process is well under way, IMO.
Anyway, good luck with the storm. I'm out.
I think the timing of the storm and the weekend had a lot to do with this.
A Yaley? Just tell her to get a pie from Pepe's and chill.
No, the sick joke is that NHC retired Katrina and Rita from 2005 and replaced them with Katia and Rina - KatiaRina ??
I know a Katia. xD
not much more to go
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