Grading the forecasts for Irene; Katia organizing; threat of a Gulf of Mexico storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:38 PM GMT on August 31, 2011

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Recovery from the destruction left behind by Hurricane Irene continues in the mid-Atlantic and New England states today. Irene's storm surge, winds, and record rains likely did $3 - $6 billion in insured damage to the U.S., according to AIR-Worldwide. Since actual damages are typically double insured losses, Irene's total price tag will likely be $6 - $12 billion, making it one of the top 20 most expensive hurricanes to hit the U.S. Irene will be one of the most expensive Category 1 hurricanes ever; the record is held by 1972's Hurricane Agnes, which did $11.8 billion in damage (2010 dollars.) As AIR Worldwide notes in their press release, part of this damage is due to the costs of evacuation for the 2 million people that were evacuated. It costs approximately $1 million to evacuate each mile of U.S. coast warned (Aberson et al., 2006). This number will be higher for more densely populated areas of the coast, such as Miami, and may be a factor of six lower for the North Carolina coast (Whitehead, 2003). So were we over-warned during Irene? Could the costs of the storm been lower due to better forecasts and fewer evacuations?


Figure 1. The National Hurricane Center forecast for Hurricane Irene issued five days before it hit Long Island, NY, compared with the actual track of Irene. The landfall locations along the coasts of North Carolina, New Jersey, and New York were pretty much spot-on, though the time of arrival was off by a few hours. The NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory has a nice satellite animation of the storm's track superimposed on the NHC's cone of uncertainty forecast.

Well, the official NHC track forecast for Irene was remarkably good; the 5-day forecast was pretty much spot-on for landfall locations, though the timing of when the storm would arrive at the coast was off by a few hours (Figure 1.) This remarkably accurate forecast undoubtedly reduced the costs of unnecessary preparations, and probably saved many lives. NHC track forecasts have improved by over 50% since 1990. The average error in a 24-hour forecast was about 105 miles in 1990, and has averaged near 50 miles the past few years. NHC director Bill Read stated in a interview this week that had Hurricane Irene come along before the recent improvements in track forecasting, hurricane warnings would have been issued for the entire Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina coasts. At an average cost of $1 million per mile of coast over-warned, this would have cost over $700 million. We can credit the investments made in hurricane research, improved satellites, and better computer models for the majority of this improvement. When we consider that government funding for hurricane research has averaged $20 million per year during much of the past two decades, the roughly $200 million spent on hurricane research over the past 20 years was paid back by over a factor of three during just one storm. According to a 2007 presentation at the 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, the improved hurricane forecasts between 2000 - 2006 resulted in savings of $3 billion compared to what the forecasts of the 1990s would have cost.

What about intensity forecasting?
Progress in making better intensity forecasts of hurricanes, though, has lagged. Over the past twenty years, there has been virtually no improvement in forecasting how strong or weak a hurricane will grow. NHC predicted Irene would hit North Carolina as a Category 3 storm, but it hit at Category 1 strength. Had the intensity forecast been better, many evacuations that were done for Irene could have been avoided. The failure of the intensity forecast led to many accusations that the storm was over-hyped, and an unnecessary amount of expensive preparations and evacuations were done. While I did see some over-hype by the media, I did not think it was more excessive than what has been the case for previous hurricanes. Nate Silver of the New York Times makes some interesting comparisons of the media attention given to Irene versus previous storms, and finds that Irene had about the same amount of media attention as hurricanes Ike and Gustav of 2008. Given in inexperience of the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts with hurricanes, our lack of skill in making intensity forecasts, and the potential for high storm surge damage due to the size of Irene and its landfall during the highest tides of the month, I thought that the overly-cautious approach to evacuations along the coast was warranted.

Better intensity forecasts threatened by budget cuts
Better intensity forecasts of hurricane are possible, but it will take a large investment in hurricane research over an extended time to do that. Such an effort is underway; we are currently in year three of a ten-year program called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), funded at just over $1 million per year. The goals of the HFIP are to reduce the average errors of hurricane track and intensity forecasts by 20% within five years and 50% in ten years with a forecast period out to 7 days. In an interview I did last fall with the leader of the project, Dr. Frank Marks of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, he expressed to me optimism that the program could meet its objectives, provided it remains fully funded. Some of the experimental computer models developed by HFIP have done very well so far during the 2011 hurricane season, so I see reason for optimism, too. However, this project is in serious danger of failure, due to the current budget-cutting emphasis in Washington D.C. A key tool we need to make better intensity forecasts is to have detailed measurements inside the core of the hurricane from instrumented aircraft. Without detailed observations, there is no hope of making a good intensity forecast, no matter how good your model is. During Hurricane Irene, the two P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft and G-IV jet operated by NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center flew continuously into the storm, taking detailed measurements via dropsonde and Doppler radar that were fed in real time to the experimental HFIP computer models. In theory, these measurements by the Hurricane Hunters should be able to significantly improve our intensity forecasts over the coming years. However, the current proposed budget from the House of Representatives mandates a $400 million cut for NOAA, and the NOAA Hurricane Hunters are slated to have their budget cut by 40%, from $29 million to $17 million per year. If these cuts materialize, the ability of the NOAA Hurricane Hunters to continue to aid improvements in hurricane forecasting will be seriously impacted. Many of the critical technologies used operationally now by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and NOAA jet to improve hurricane forecasts--dropsondes, real-time high-density observations, and the SFMR surface wind measuring instrument--were developed on the NOAA P-3s as research projects, then were migrated to operational use once they proved their worth. The cost of hurricane damages in the U.S. has been doubling every ten years since the 1960s, and is expected to continue to double every ten years, even without the likely coming increase in storm surge damages due to accelerating sea level rise. A Category 1 hurricane doing $10 billion in damage should be a wake-up call that we need to continue our investments in hurricane research to reduce the costs of the inevitable coming storms. Slashing funding by 40% for a research group that was instrumental in saving $700 million in costs from just one storm makes no sense, and I hope Congress will reconsider the proposed cuts for NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center.

References
Whitehead, J.C., 2003: "One million dollars per mile? The opportunity costs of Hurricane evacuation", Ocean and Coastal Management 46, 1069.

Tropical Storm Katia
Tropical Storm Katia continues its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean today, and is expected to arrive at a position several hundred miles north of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Monday. At this time, it appears unlikely that the islands will receive tropical storm-force winds from Katia. Satellite images show that Katia is a well-organized storm with plenty of heavy thunderstorms. The storm has good upper-level outflow channels to the north and south, is under light wind shear, and is traversing warm waters, so it should be able to overcome any dry air problems by Thursday and intensify into a hurricane. It is looking less likely that Katia will affect land. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 12% chance of hitting Canada, a 5% chance of hitting Florida, and a 62% chance of never hitting land. It will be two more days before our computer models will be able to assess the threat to land, though, as Katia is currently still very far out at sea.


Figure 2. The morning run of the GFS Ensemble prediction. The ensemble prediction was done by taking a lower-resolution version of the GFS model and changing the initial distributions of temperature, pressure, and humidity randomly by a few percent to generate an ensemble of 20 different computer projections of where Katia might go. The operational (highest-resolution) version of the GFS model (white line) is usually more accurate, but the ensemble runs give one an idea of the uncertainty in the forecast. Very few of the ensemble members are currently showing a threat to the U.S. Canada is more at risk than the U.S., according to this model.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance a threat to develop
Surface winds over the Gulf of Mexico are rising today in advance of the approach of a tropical wave currently over the Western Caribbean, western tip of Cuba, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. This wave is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph, and is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. The wave is slowly beginning to build an increased amount of heavy thunderstorms, and this process will accelerate on Thursday when the wave enters the Gulf of Mexico. By Friday, when the wave will be near the Louisiana or Texas coast, wind shear is expected to drop to low to moderate levels, and the wave may be able to organize into a tropical depression. This process will likely take several days, and formation of a tropical depression is more likely Saturday or Sunday. NHC is giving the wave just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. Regardless, this system will spread heavy rains to portions of the Gulf Coast by Friday, with the Upper Texas coast and the coast of Louisiana the most likely recipients of heavy rain. Strong onshore winds raising tides to 1 - 2 feet above normal are likely over Louisiana beginning on Friday, and coastal flood statements have been issued for the region. Three of our four top models for predicting tropical cyclone development forecast that a tropical depression will form this weekend or early next week, and I think it is at least 50% likely we will have Tropical Depression 13 on our hands by Monday. However, steering currents will be weak in the Gulf, and it is difficult to predict where the storm might go.The GFS model has a possible tropical depression forming by Sunday off the coast of Mississippi, then moving east-northeast over the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The ECMWF model forms the storm on Monday off the coast of Texas, and leaves the storm stalled out there through Wednesday. The UKMET model forms the storm Saturday off the coast of Louisiana, and leaves it stalled out there through Monday. If the storm did remain in the Gulf of Mexico for three days as some of the recent model runs have been predicting, it would be a threat to intensify into a hurricane.

Related posts:
Big money for hurricane research? My October 27, 2006 post.

Jason Samenow at the Washington Post has an excellent post, Hurricane Irene hype: over the top media coverage or justified?

Andrew Freedman at the Washington Post talked earlier this month how lack of funding to replace an aging weather satellite may degrade weather forecasts beginning in 2016. Michael Conathan at climateprogress.org had a more detailed analysis of the issue in a February blog post.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times discussed in his Dot Earth blog yesterday how cuts in the USGS stream gauge network will hamper flood forecasting.

Jeff Masters

Lincoln Road (31337)
Lincoln Road
Lincoln Road (31337)
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3137. Inyo
10:57 PM GMT on August 23, 2012
I live in Vermont and we just drove through an area today where Irene's effects are still VERY evident. It was not good, not good at all.

Sadly, peoples attempts to 'fix' the rivers after the flooding did a ton more damage, and made future flood risk even worse.

People are dumb. Most people in Vermont have a lot of down-to-earth common sense, but after a disaster, when people are panicked, people make dumb decisions.
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
3136. SLU
3:35 AM GMT on September 02, 2011
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5164
3135. SLU
3:34 AM GMT on September 02, 2011
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5164
3134. hurricanejunky
8:04 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Seems the models are clustering on LA,MS and FL now?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
3133. KeysieLife
5:16 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, September 1st, with Video
Just got a chance to watch the video today. Thank you Levi, absoultely fantastic explanation on the trough/ridge setup and how it could effect these storms. Keep up the excelent work, you make Mets wish they had skills like that! =)
Member Since: September 10, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 409
3132. serialteg
5:01 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting IKE:
102 hr. 12Z GFS...




with the trough in front right ike
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
3131. uptxcoast
4:43 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Rigs in the GOM are starting to shut down and evacuate which means gas will be more expensive tomorrow. I would fill up today and save a few bucks.
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3130. IKE
4:36 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
102 hr. 12Z GFS...


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3129. uptxcoast
4:26 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
I know I have been downcasting 93L as far as tracking into Texas and I still believe that to be the case. Of course I SWORE to my wife that Ike was no threat to us as it would curve out to sea or be an East coast hit.

So even though I believe 93L will be going east to Louisiana or even as far as the Florida Panhandle it would be foolish of me not to take stock and be prepared and I would suggest everyone along the Gulf Coast does as well. Stuff in the Gulf has to hit somewhere.

So I will make sure the cars are full of gas tonight but hold off on the generator gas, water and food we always have with day one of the season. And if this thing comes even close to me, I have a tree that I HATE that I have a feeling will go down in a safe direction in the storm. (No matter what wind direction that baby is falling) My wife likes the tree but it is a Tallow which is a weed here in TX and while the shade is nice it is starting to effect my Magnolia which I like much more.

I counted 3 dead Magnolia trees this morning within 3 blocks of my house and I do not want to be number 4.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 235
3128. AllStar17
4:07 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
11:00am Advisory
*Click graphics to magnify (Graphics can also be magnified more by clicking on them in the Link window)

Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
3127. kshipre1
4:06 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
thanks Kman! what about the changing upper level high pressure pattern evolving towards mid september?

probably a better chance for the SE CONUS

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3126. AussieStorm
4:03 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
3125. Progster
3:55 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, September 1st, with Video


Great briefing, Levi. To paraphrase Churchill, the evolution of potential Lee remains an enigma wrapped in a mystery. One thing i'd like to see reviewed is the track problem with a weakened Katia. Cheers.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
3124. Matt1989
3:55 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Lol don't think this one will go to Texas .. Looking at maps Texas will be spared IMO. Anyone from louisianna to Florida need to watch carefully. Texas too but the way it is setting up (everything in eastern gulf) I highly doubt it will make it to Texas.
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3123. Clearwater1
3:49 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
well, the 12z gfs is displaying it's data. Let's see the latest it has in store for us.
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3122. CJ5
3:44 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting 69Viking:


There may be areas of the ocean floor that still have Oil but I don't see a tropical system bring the oil up from 100' - 1000' below the surface. I've also seen studies done where a tropical system now could actually benefit by breaking up the oil and further helping to disolve and evaporate it. I patrol the beaches for Sea Turtle nests and trust me when I say there isn't any oil washing up on the beaches as of late. There may be an isolated incident ocassionally but our beaches are as white and beautiful as ever! Despite the scare tactics by some it appears the tourists have returned to our area. Go West 93L, Go West!


Thanks for that. I agree, the scare tactics by many, especially the media is to blame for much of the economic loss in the gulf states.
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3121. hurricane23
3:43 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting nash28:


Well, not THAT far west. I don't see the AB High nosing itself into the CONUS preventing any poleward movement. Having said that, I also do not see the ridiculous trough amplification in August that the GFS is in love with. Much closer approach to the ECONUS.


I think the chances of Katia coming anywhere near the CONUS are getting even slimmer than yesterday. It would not surprise me to see a track farther SW in the day 3-6 period given some of the model guidance on track and strength of the ridge - but given increasing consensus toward a big positively tilted longwave trough developing over the eastern CONUS toward the end of the period, it is hard to see how even with a farther SW track in the shorter term this system can avoid full recurvature well E of the East Coast.
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3120. kmanislander
3:43 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting kshipre1:
Kman,

probably a crazy question but do you see Katia moving west towards the Florida peninsula or somewhere on the SE coast with it being a weaker system and a building bermuda high above? thanks


Several of the models show Katia pushing much closer to the Bahamas than before with a bend back to the West just N of PR. A lot can, and likely will happen, with Katia before 60W that could influence whether it recurves as expected or makes its way farther West before recurving. With the deterioration we are seeing now, if Katia becomes a much weaker TS with an exposed low level center trucking off to the West the models will likely respond in kind once again.

The next 12 to 24 hours will be critical in determining whether Katia recovers, deepens and pushes poleward as per the GFS or weaknes further, pushes more to the W and possibly threaten the Leeward Islands first.

As far as Florida is concerned Katia is still too far out and in too much a state of flux to draw any conclusions regarding the SE coast of the US.
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3119. jpsb
3:41 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting nash28:


Well, not THAT far west. I don't see the AB High nosing itself into the CONUS preventing any poleward movement. Having said that, I also do not see the ridiculous trough amplification in August that the GFS is in love with. Much closer approach to the ECONUS.
Looks to me like K is 12 hrs away from meeting a huge ULL that is feeding her dry air (she is already ingesting some dry air) and shearing her to pieces, once she get by that there is another big ULL. If she is not pulled north there will not be much left of her to go west.
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3118. RitaEvac
3:40 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Something low level trying to form south of LA, moving west
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3117. Jax82
3:40 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Ok fine i'll do it. NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
3116. Clearwater1
3:38 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting TerraNova:
Morning everyone!

Just a reminder, you can check out photos of Irene's flooding in NJ that I posted yesterday on my blog.

Also, the term of the day is squashed spider.



Ok, but that's two words, "squashed spider" but who's counting.

I was born in in VT, Rutland, where some very heavy flooding occurred, like in NJ. Very bad scene for all my remaining family there. The last thing anyone needs, baring a good soaking for TX is another Irene type storm, this season.

RE: edit, I now see, term of the day.
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3115. RitaEvac
3:36 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Getting N and NE breeze here in SE TX, clouds coming from that direction as well, usually the sign of something offshore
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3114. Levi32
3:34 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
What a headache 93L is going to be to forecast lol. At any rate let's hope for a quick movement inland into Texas or Louisiana before the weekend is out, or else we may be dealing with a significant tropical cyclone early next week after the system has been sitting over 31C water for 4-5 days.
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3113. WxLogic
3:33 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
12Z GFS Init:
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3112. kshipre1
3:33 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Kman,

probably a crazy question but do you see Katia moving west towards the Florida peninsula or somewhere on the SE coast with it being a weaker system and a building bermuda high above? thanks
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3111. WetBankGuy
3:33 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting 69Viking:


You hit 100' 10 miles or less offshore and then 200' when you approach 20 miles offshore. Shortly after that the GOM drops to several hundred feet off our shores in NW FL. I honestly don't think the oil is going to be a problem, I'm more worried about coastal flooding and the risk to Sea Turtle nests that still haven't hatched.


It's not just the tarballs we're looking for, it's the hydrocarbon components:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id= masive-oil-plume-confirmed-in-gulf-of-mexico

And what exactly happens to Corexit after its sprayed?

The corporate media aren't interested in telling you the stuff that makes your SUV go is killing people down here, but there's an Agent Orange scale health crisis brewing among response workers, and we don't need a whole lot of other goodies getting blown inland.

Member Since: September 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
3110. kmanislander
3:33 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
Is that due to shear and dry air Kman?


Yes, plus the fast forward speed to the West
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3109. CloudGatherer
3:32 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting TerraNova:
Morning everyone!

Just a reminder, you can check out photos of Irene's flooding in NJ that I posted yesterday on my blog.

Also, the word of the day is squashed spider.

Geepers.

It's a good reminder that until there's a well-defined center of circulation, the models are of decidedly little use. Models rely on data, and at the moment, they're using projections of where the storm will form instead of an actual storm.

It'll be very interesting to see if anything actually coalesces out of this mess, and if so, where it moves. For now, it's best to ignore these models altogether, at least until they start to come into line. They plainly have no handle on the situation.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
3108. RitaEvac
3:31 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting linkays:


I couldn't agree more. People with livestock (also wildlife) are desperate for rain that it doesn't matter how we get it. Recently had someone dump a newborn donkey (we raise them) on me and sadly it died. The last round hay bales I bought were $100 each and even higher now. So tired of seeing dead deer (adults & fawns) hit by cars and killed because they're seeking water. There is a huge pond in the pasture next to ours that is completely dry! Maybe I'm wish casting but at this point I don't care....I'll take whatever will come here to South Texas!


The other day, UK or some European country shipped dogs by plane to Houston, they were to be transferred to San Antonio by truck for training. 2 died in the back when the AC went out and most of them were almost dead by the time they found out when pulled over on I-10 just outside of Houston, never even made it past Columbus I think.
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3107. HCW
3:29 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
93L 12Z model runs from the NHC... What a mess !


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3106. HurricaneNewb
3:28 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:
Katia's center is on the verge of becoming exposed and is now outrunning what remains of the storm's CDO. If this continues the system may wind up being downgraded to a TS at 5 today. There is no question that the deep convection is all but gone and a decoupling of the low and mid level centers later today is also a possibility if current trends continue IMO.
Is that due to shear and dry air Kman?
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3105. duranta
3:28 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Wetbankguy, you speak the truth. Massive amounts of oil and corexit sit on the Gulf floor. The well is still leaking, so you know they are still applying the corexit. They never stopped. This is going to wash up into the marsh with these flood warning. The disaster is not over.

I live on the West Bank in Gretna. Where are you?
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3104. Levi32
3:27 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, September 1st, with Video
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3103. TerraNova
3:27 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
The 26 degree isotherm extends more than 100 meters below the surface of the sea in the Yucatan Channel.

If we ever have a system shooting the Channel from the south this year, things could get ugly.

Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
3102. WetBankGuy
3:27 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting TerraNova:
Morning everyone!

Just a reminder, you can check out photos of Irene's flooding in NJ that I posted yesterday on my blog.

Also, the term of the day is squashed spider.

Dunno, looks like slug tracks to me. Maybe we should all sprinkle some salt in front of the storm.
Member Since: September 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
3101. linkays
3:27 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting TXMegaWatt:


At this point, we will take anything we can get. Talking to farmers in the area is so depressing. Hay crops have turned out to be a true disaster this year. They have no crop to sell or feed their own animals with. It's a sad sight to see.

If we can get some heavy rains now, a late fall hay cut may prove to be fair instead of non-existant.


I couldn't agree more. People with livestock (also wildlife) are desperate for rain that it doesn't matter how we get it. Recently had someone dump a newborn donkey (we raise them) on me and sadly it died. The last round hay bales I bought were $100 each and even higher now. So tired of seeing dead deer (adults & fawns) hit by cars and killed because they're seeking water. There is a huge pond in the pasture next to ours that is completely dry! Maybe I'm wish casting but at this point I don't care....I'll take whatever will come here to South Texas!
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
3100. Drakoen
3:27 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
It is interesting to see how some of the models have shifted to the south and west with Katia. The UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, and HFIP-hWRF on the south and west side of the track and the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF on the north and right side of the track. Katia's low level center is struggling to maintain convection as she is encountering the region of upper level confluence between her upper level high and the upper level low to her northwest. This may keep Katia on a more westerly based track since a weaker system would be less prone to the Beta effect. It should be noted that there is a high standard deviation with the ECMWF ensemble members as the operational lies on the northern side of the individual ECMWFEPS members.
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3099. Progster
3:27 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting TerraNova:
Pressures are not noticeably dropping in the Eastern Gulf.



CMC 06Z analysis shows a broad low with a 1008 mb centre over the central gulf...no obs in the vicinity, though, to support it. Link
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
3098. Beachfoxx
3:26 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Viking,

How many nest have you seen on the area you patrol?
Quoting 69Viking:


You hit 100' 10 miles or less offshore and then 200' when you approach 20 miles offshore. Shortly after that the GOM drops to several hundred feet off our shores in NW FL. I honestly don't think the oil is going to be a problem, I'm more worried about coastal flooding and the risk to Sea Turtle nests that still haven't hatched.

Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384
3097. WetBankGuy
3:25 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
BP's Macondo Well is 5000 ft below the surface,,no entity is saying the well is Leaking,,we have seepage all the Time, so take any reports of the BP well with a grain o tabasco.

Billy Nunguesser would be on them Like white on Rice if they thought that.


Nunguesser has aspirations for higher office, and by now must realized you can't be elected constable on an anti-oil platform in Louisiana. Now that Corporations Are People, Too, they will bury anyone who stands up to them in money.

And I have zero confidence in the CG command structure since they made themselves BP's security mercenaries last year, so anything the CG says is as discounted as if it came from the mouth of BP.

But put aside the current large slick and sheen that will be washing ashore in the next few days. Think about all the oil the Corexit cleverly deposited on the bottom or in subsurface plumes so we wouldn't see it. And the Corexit.

Thinking of picking up a Tyvex suit this afternoon.

Member Since: September 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
3096. AussieStorm
3:25 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Opinion wanted: Is it just me or does it appear Katia has been going more West the past few days than expected? It does appear that it will not affect the Leewards, but not so sure on a sharp Northerly turn. Anyone have any thoughts or facts about its motion in the next few days (preferably North)?

well, the CMC ensemble has another east coaster in 216hrs.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
3095. usa777
3:25 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
I think god has finally begin to watch over me..lol. I left to go on vacation last Tuesday the 23rd and we had a 5.8 magnitude quake here and follow that up with Irene and I was on vaction the whole time. Here is the kicker. My power was out for 4 days and just as I pull up in my driveway the power comes back on. Tell me that man is looking out for me. lol. I got tested in Katrina so he must be thinking "that dude has been dealt quite enough"..lol
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
3094. TerraNova
3:24 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Man, look at the Yucatan Channel...

Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
3093. kmanislander
3:24 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Katia's center is on the verge of becoming exposed and is now outrunning what remains of the storm's CDO. If this continues the system may wind up being downgraded to a TS at 5 today. There is no question that the deep convection is all but gone and a decoupling of the low and mid level centers later today is also a possibility if current trends continue IMO.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15826
3092. 69Viking
3:23 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting E46Pilot:


How deep is the water out there? I wouldn't expect a hurricane to affect it if it's deeper then 200 feet.


You hit 100' 10 miles or less offshore and then 200' when you approach 20 miles offshore. Shortly after that the GOM drops to several hundred feet off our shores in NW FL. I honestly don't think the oil is going to be a problem, I'm more worried about coastal flooding and the risk to Sea Turtle nests that still haven't hatched.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3028
3091. 996tt
3:23 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting JupiterFL:


Post of the day!


I know. So true. Their fires will get spread by winds and rain will skirt them.

Burning a horse carcus. What the . . .? Sounds like some back woods hillbilly stuff not to mention nasty smell I bet. I thought people got back hoes and hurried dead horses or something in the 21st century.
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
3090. atmoaggie
3:22 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx:
12z NAM brings 10-20 inches of rain to Southern parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Yeah, not liking this NAM run...go west, please.

I need rain, but not that much and preferably not this weekend.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
3089. redwagon
3:22 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Quoting EYEStoSEA:

Yep, that Panamanian system already has spin.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3255
3088. TerraNova
3:22 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Pressures are not noticeably dropping in the Eastern Gulf.

Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
3087. Beachfoxx
3:22 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
I agree!  Go west!  Yes, our beaches are sugar white... tourist are back & we really were hoping for a good weekend. 
Quoting 69Viking:


There may be areas of the ocean floor that still have Oil but I don't see a tropical system bring the oil up from 100' - 1000' below the surface. I've also seen studies done where a tropical system now could actually benefit by breaking up the oil and further helping to disolve and evaporate it. I patrol the beaches for Sea Turtle nests and trust me when I say there isn't any oil washing up on the beaches as of late. There may be an isolated incident ocassionally but our beaches are as white and beautiful as ever! Despite the scare tactics by some it appears the tourists have returned to our area. Go West 93L, Go West!

Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.