Lee drenching the Gulf Coast; Katia a Cat 2
Tropical Storm Lee made landfall on the southern coast of Louisiana near 4 am CDT this morning, and continues to inch slowly northward and dump very heavy rains. The storm is not a threat to intensify, since its center lies over land, but enough of the storm's circulation is over water that Lee will be slow to weaken. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, 8.85" inches of rain had fallen from Lee as of 9 am CDT this morning. Top winds this morning hit 46 mph, gusting to 57 mph, at 6:28 am CDT, when a heavy squall blew in. Latest satellite loops show Lee has lost quite a bit of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, but the storm remains a formidable rain-maker. Lee brought a storm surge of 4 feet to New Canal Station in Lake Pontchartrain and at Shell Beach east of New Orleans yesterday afternoon. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center reported eight probable tornadoes from Lee yesterday. These tornadoes damaged approximately ten buildings, but caused no deaths or injuries.
Figure 1. Observed rainfall for the seven-day period ending at 8 am EDT Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Tropical Storm Lee had dumped 5 -10 inches of rain over a large swath of the coast, with a few areas in excess of ten inches (pink colors). Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.
Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period 8am EDT Sunday - 8 am EDT Friday, Sep 9, 2011. Lee is expected to bring a large swath of 4+ inches of rain all the way to the mid-Atlantic. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Forecast for Lee
Lee's large size and slow movement will make heavy rains the main concern today. Later in the week, the remnants of Lee's may be a problem for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where recovery efforts from the devastating flooding due to Hurricane Irene may be hampered by an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain. Tornadoes from Lee are a potential hazard today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the Northern Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. A tornado watch is posted for the region, but no tornadoes have been reported as of 9 am CDT.
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia finally overcame the wind shear and dry air interfering with it, and intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this morning. Latest satellite loops show a well-defined eye for the first time, but the hurricane still has a lopsided appearance, due to he impacts of dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots on its southwest side.
Katia will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days, but may be a threat to the U.S. late this week. The computer models disagree considerably on the position and strength of a trough of low pressure that will develop over the Eastern U.S. late this week, and thus how Katia will be steered. The evolution of this trough will be strongly affected by Tropical Storm Lee, and the models are not very skillful at predicting transitions from tropical storm to extratropical storm, which will happen to Lee by Wednesday this week. We have two of our reliable models--the ECMWF and UKMET--predicting that the trough will form farther west, steering Katia very close to North Carolina late this week. The rest of the models predict a more easterly position of the trough, which would force Katia to turn northwards towards Canada well before reaching North Carolina. Either scenario is possible, and it will probably be at least another day before the models converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. It's likely that locations on the U.S. coast south of North Carolina will not receive a direct hit from Katia, but the entire coast from North Carolina northwards to New England and Canada's Maritime Provinces is definitely at risk. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas tonight, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.
Elsewhere in the tropics
This week and next week typically mark the two most active weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season, and there are two potential threat areas we need to watch. The GFS model predicts that a tropical depression could form in the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Friday or Saturday this week. Several other models give support to this idea, and predict such a storm would track northwards or north-northeastwards towards the northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The other region to watch is between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting that a tropical wave currently near the coast of Africa could develop into a tropical depression late this week, and arrive in the northern Lesser Antilles by Saturday or Sunday.
Jeff Masters
This is what happens when you do not tie up your boat....
This was taken in Pass Christian MS
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No, can't see anything, I am several miles away but with the winds, I am gonna keep an eye out, that is for sure!
yup
Latest 1, 3, and 6 hr Flash Flash Flood Guidance for the Southeast.
Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides a general indication of the amount of rainfall evenly distributed over various durations (in hours), necessary to cause small streams to overflow their natural banks. During heavy rainfall, accurate interpretation of the guidance consists of the combination of rainfall that has already occurred plus any additional rainfall that can be confidently expected to fall over the same location in the immediate future.
It should be noted that FFG values represent an estimate of average soil moisture and stream flow conditions in a given county. Flooding may occur with less rainfall than indicated in areas where recent rain has been locally heavier. In addition, during prolonged dry spells, soils may temporarily have impervious characteristics at the onset of heavy rain, resulting in extra runoff and possible flooding from lower rainfall amounts than those indicated by the FFG.
Southeast River Forecast Center/Flash Flood Guidance
Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center/Flash Flood Guidance
I live near Richmond Raceway!
What a senseless tragedy...prayers for the family and the first reponders.
More likely a rain or wind event at the down link site, especially since they are / were able to re-link / replace it.
Oh my goodness, that is so sad. With the conditions so bad, why on earth were they out there..My heart goes out to the family.
Yes, I expect that the wave just exiting the African coast will likely be an invest tomorrow some time. The NHC does not like to tag an invest too early but when you are in the heart of the season and a strong system comes off like this they may tag it sooner than later.
ow sad is that
gaaurantee it will try
is it possible that maria will hit florida? lol
That's exactly what I was thinking about, the winds. You can see it's direction on the radar. (the stuff around Austin is virga I believe, not a fire)
:,( This just horrible....
Must be nice, they banned ALL fireworks this year for the 4th of July, first time in 40+ years I have not watched them on the 4th.
I have been recording that and watching it.. VERY GOOD!!
It'll look like this when completed.
yup its amazing
STEINER RANCH: Crews are on scene of a brush fire in Steiner Ranch near 620 and Mansfield Dam. All
residents are being evacuated.
Pflugerville: The Reserve at West Creek subdivision was evacuated. Officials say 192 homes that were vacated on Hoddie Lane are now being allowed back in their homes.
SPICEWOOD: Crews are fighting a 2-alarm fire in Spicewood. Mandatory evacuations are also taking place. Large fire near the southwest side of Lake Travis. Austin, Lake Travis, Westlake C-bar, STARFlight 1 and 2 along with Pedernales and Spicewood Fire departments are fighting the 300-400 acre fire. Homes have been destroyed, fire is heading east, hopped Highway 71. Residents in Fall Creek Estates and Pale Face Ranch Road must evacuate
LIBERTY HILL: Fire is threatening homes in Liberty Hill. No word on evacuations.
BASTROP: A mandatory evacuation notice has been issued for people in the following locations due to
the threat of a wildfire...Circle D County Acres area...Pine view west...Lake Bastrop...Pine...Portions of Tahitian
Village...Colovista...Alum creek...Bastrop State Park...and residents along Harmon Road and Pine Hill Loop.
LA GRANGE: La Grange has major brush fires. Parts of town north off hwy 71 evacuated. Several structure
fires reported.
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE BASTROP
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
BASTROP: Wildfires in Bastrop County forced Bluebonnet Electric Cooperative to relocate its control center to its backup location Sunday. Bluebonnet crews are cutting power to electric lines in advance of the fire so fire crews can work safely. “The safety of the firefighters and the public are our foremost concern,” said Mark Rose, Bluebonnet’s chief executive officer. “We are intentionally cutting power to areas in the path of the fire so emergency crews and residents evacuating won’t have another hazard to deal with.
HAYS COUNTY: Hays County officials are evacuating Stagecoach Ranch subdivision in northeastern Hays County. Residents are asked to to go to Dripping Springs Elementary at 29400 RR 12.
but all of the deep personal meanings
1,776 feet tall.
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I agree
The green is not virga, there isn't a cloud in the sky, just smoke.
like 400 feet higher too
The Canadian, NOGAPS and GFS spin up a low in the BOC just off the Western tip of the Yucatan but the GFS takes it into Mexico
Unneeded.
just watched thatactually
Cape Verde in action.
*continues to trim and lower trees tomorrow*
The height I posted is the highest tip. The roof is 1,368 feet up, and the top floor is 1,314 feet up. It'll be a sight to behold.
Viewing: 1751 - 1801
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