Lee drenching the Gulf Coast; Katia a Cat 2
Tropical Storm Lee made landfall on the southern coast of Louisiana near 4 am CDT this morning, and continues to inch slowly northward and dump very heavy rains. The storm is not a threat to intensify, since its center lies over land, but enough of the storm's circulation is over water that Lee will be slow to weaken. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, 8.85" inches of rain had fallen from Lee as of 9 am CDT this morning. Top winds this morning hit 46 mph, gusting to 57 mph, at 6:28 am CDT, when a heavy squall blew in. Latest satellite loops show Lee has lost quite a bit of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, but the storm remains a formidable rain-maker. Lee brought a storm surge of 4 feet to New Canal Station in Lake Pontchartrain and at Shell Beach east of New Orleans yesterday afternoon. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center reported eight probable tornadoes from Lee yesterday. These tornadoes damaged approximately ten buildings, but caused no deaths or injuries.
Figure 1. Observed rainfall for the seven-day period ending at 8 am EDT Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Tropical Storm Lee had dumped 5 -10 inches of rain over a large swath of the coast, with a few areas in excess of ten inches (pink colors). Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.
Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period 8am EDT Sunday - 8 am EDT Friday, Sep 9, 2011. Lee is expected to bring a large swath of 4+ inches of rain all the way to the mid-Atlantic. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Forecast for Lee
Lee's large size and slow movement will make heavy rains the main concern today. Later in the week, the remnants of Lee's may be a problem for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where recovery efforts from the devastating flooding due to Hurricane Irene may be hampered by an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain. Tornadoes from Lee are a potential hazard today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the Northern Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. A tornado watch is posted for the region, but no tornadoes have been reported as of 9 am CDT.
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia finally overcame the wind shear and dry air interfering with it, and intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this morning. Latest satellite loops show a well-defined eye for the first time, but the hurricane still has a lopsided appearance, due to he impacts of dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots on its southwest side.
Katia will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days, but may be a threat to the U.S. late this week. The computer models disagree considerably on the position and strength of a trough of low pressure that will develop over the Eastern U.S. late this week, and thus how Katia will be steered. The evolution of this trough will be strongly affected by Tropical Storm Lee, and the models are not very skillful at predicting transitions from tropical storm to extratropical storm, which will happen to Lee by Wednesday this week. We have two of our reliable models--the ECMWF and UKMET--predicting that the trough will form farther west, steering Katia very close to North Carolina late this week. The rest of the models predict a more easterly position of the trough, which would force Katia to turn northwards towards Canada well before reaching North Carolina. Either scenario is possible, and it will probably be at least another day before the models converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. It's likely that locations on the U.S. coast south of North Carolina will not receive a direct hit from Katia, but the entire coast from North Carolina northwards to New England and Canada's Maritime Provinces is definitely at risk. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas tonight, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.
Elsewhere in the tropics
This week and next week typically mark the two most active weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season, and there are two potential threat areas we need to watch. The GFS model predicts that a tropical depression could form in the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Friday or Saturday this week. Several other models give support to this idea, and predict such a storm would track northwards or north-northeastwards towards the northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The other region to watch is between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting that a tropical wave currently near the coast of Africa could develop into a tropical depression late this week, and arrive in the northern Lesser Antilles by Saturday or Sunday.
Jeff Masters
This is what happens when you do not tie up your boat....
This was taken in Pass Christian MS
Reader Comments
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Is that typical? Just curious.
With the crazy storms this season... nothing is typical..lol
That looks good. But Maria will come long before that develops.
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You can see just west of Austin by the squiggly lakes (Highland Lakes) jets/plumes just like the Bastrop one
before the clutter obscures the field. That's the Steiner ranch fires.
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Is the Fire moving towards, or away from you?
It moving just to the west of us, But way to close for comfort, and i'm gonna have to try to commute to Austin tomorrow with it possibly upon me. Just worried the Trough that dug down into us doesnt shift the winds to more westerly, Bringing it right toward me is NOT GOOD AT ALL!!!
Eye Wall ReConstruction, or something to that effect.
Welcome to the Blog.
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Thanks!! :o)
Eye
Wall
Replacement
Cycle
(seriously? you camped there with Lee in the GoM? doofus's)
Article and more pictures here.
Well, my rain dances are not panning out so we are gonna have to look to other forces... Merlin maybe, human sacrifice?? LOL
I guess some people don't think things can happen to them. My guess is most are younger than thirty, when you think you will live forever no matter how dangerous something is. I just hope none had children with them.
Frigate Birds are a rare sight in Mandeville, LA. They only come during tropical weather.
Link
Your welcome, but for the technical stuff you might want to listen to the more educated like DFW.
Thanks for the correction. I new I was wrong, but couldn't think of it.
Oh Rats, Rats, Rats!! Better check on the kids in Austin! Hadnt heard a word about this! They are in the Arboretum area, right on the edge of the woods. We have friends at Bastrop TX, The town, which I think is in Bastrope county. We have friends there too. I am calling people as I type. Double Rats!
An EWRC is a:
Eyewall Replacement Cycle,
Its when a Hurricane replaces it's eyewall(The Eyewall is the and most intense part of the storm and typically helps develop an eye, When a storm gets an Eyewall its a sign that a storm is intensifying from a Tropical storm to a Hurricane). and wraps in new convection from it's largest spiral band, and forms a new eyewall and typically after this cycle is complete the storm resumes intensification(During the cycle it remains at it's strength or weakens some)
Have a good night
1. I saw a couple of dots on the screen that I can only assume were the birds.
2. He never seemed to notice that... THE MAILBOX BEHIND YOU IS ALMOST UNDER WATER THE FRIGGIN FRIGATE BIRD WARNING IS A LITTLE LATE?!?!?!?!?!
:)
on that note (C#) good nite all
welcome
DALLAS (AP) — Wildfires continued to spread Sunday across East and Central Texas due partly to high winds caused by Tropical Storm Lee and the passage of a cool front, authorities said.
Local and state firefighting crews scrambled to contain the blazes, which have destroyed homes and forced evacuations in the parched sections of Texas. Winds were from the north to northeast at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph and relative humidity at 20 to 30 percent.
The National Weather Service said South, Central and East Texas were all under "red flag" warnings for critical fire conditions until late Sunday night. No injuries were reported.
The wildfire threat became so dire in the Austin area of Central Texas that the Austin Fire Department issued a public appeal for any and all available firefighters in the area to report for duty.
Wildfires scorched more than 6,000 acres in Bastrop County, just southeast of Austin. Bastrop police spokesman Michal Hubbard told the Austin American-Statesman that hundreds of homes were evacuated in the vicinity of the county seat and several structures were lost.
A wildfire in the Austin suburb of Cedar Park destroyed two homes and damaged two others Sunday. Wildfires also prompted evacuations of other neighborhoods in Cedar Park and some in the nearby Austin suburbs of Pflugerville, Bastrop and near Briarcliff.
In Corsicana, about 50 miles south of Dallas, a wildfire spread to and destroyed eight metal industrial shop buildings inside the city. Mayor Chuck McClanahan said fire crews were fighting to keep the flames from reaching wooden structures.
Navarro County Judge H.M. Davenport said three wildfires had spread to a total of 2,000 acres and prompted an evacuation of Navarro, a town of about 200 residents about eight miles southeast of Corsicana, and a sparsely settled rural area close to the nearby town of Mildred.
Ronnie Willis owns a pasture just east of the Corsicana fire. Embers from the industrial park fire burned his field, and Willis could only watch as the fires leaped across his pastures toward his two massive indoor arenas.
"My prayer is it doesn't burn up the buildings," he told the Corsicana Daily Sun. "The grass will grow back. If it doesn't hurt an animal or burn up the buildings, we can live through it. I just feel sorry for the people whose businesses are being destroyed."
Rural neighborhoods in the East Texas counties of Smith, Van Zandt, Gregg and Houston also were evacuated because of scattered, fast-moving wildfires in those areas. There were no immediate reports of home losses.
Tropics;
Lee weakens, will dump good rains in the SE, MIDATL, and NE.
Katia going through EWRC, will resume strengthening in 12 to 18 Hours. Major Hurricane likely from her before being hammered by a amplified trough.
Developments in Coming weeks;
A tropical wave could develop in the NW caribbean and come into the GOM.
There's another tropical wave approaching western Africa that GFS develops east of the islands.
and another Wave emerging off of Africa could form in the Central caribbean as the wave behind it does.
TX wildfires:
These fires are dangerous, and all evacuated people need to get out Immediately, or Leave before evacuations... Keep updated, and KEEP SAFE! Pack a bag and be ready!!!
STARTING TO WORRY?
There's Already fires here, and do you think im worried! YES, the thing has traveled 11000 Acres in just 4 hours. This thing means business and its already got me on the alert today... Gnite everyone, Keepin one eye closed, one on the news.
And yet - we haven't had a single drop of rain. It's virga, all of it. Impressive radar signature but still virga. Just goes to show how dry our lower atmospheric levels can get. It did give us a nice show at sunset: the sun from below the horizon shining up into the rain streaks turned the whole sky golden.
Good night and stay safe!
Feeling pretty good that the worst of Katia will pass well offshore of the East Coast...though it will generate dangerous surf at the coast. HOWEVER, the normally reliable European computer model turns the storm toward the WNW tomorrow and brings it reasonably close to NC, the other reliable models keep it farther offshore... so let's be sure it doesn't make that shift toward the coast tomorrow before we quit paying attention. Otherwise Lee's rain spreads north.
if this turns tomorrow, Katia is still in the game..
yup
It aint just you thats fur darn sure.
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