Lee drenching the Gulf Coast; Katia a Cat 2
Tropical Storm Lee made landfall on the southern coast of Louisiana near 4 am CDT this morning, and continues to inch slowly northward and dump very heavy rains. The storm is not a threat to intensify, since its center lies over land, but enough of the storm's circulation is over water that Lee will be slow to weaken. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, 8.85" inches of rain had fallen from Lee as of 9 am CDT this morning. Top winds this morning hit 46 mph, gusting to 57 mph, at 6:28 am CDT, when a heavy squall blew in. Latest satellite loops show Lee has lost quite a bit of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, but the storm remains a formidable rain-maker. Lee brought a storm surge of 4 feet to New Canal Station in Lake Pontchartrain and at Shell Beach east of New Orleans yesterday afternoon. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center reported eight probable tornadoes from Lee yesterday. These tornadoes damaged approximately ten buildings, but caused no deaths or injuries.
Figure 1. Observed rainfall for the seven-day period ending at 8 am EDT Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Tropical Storm Lee had dumped 5 -10 inches of rain over a large swath of the coast, with a few areas in excess of ten inches (pink colors). Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.
Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period 8am EDT Sunday - 8 am EDT Friday, Sep 9, 2011. Lee is expected to bring a large swath of 4+ inches of rain all the way to the mid-Atlantic. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Forecast for Lee
Lee's large size and slow movement will make heavy rains the main concern today. Later in the week, the remnants of Lee's may be a problem for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where recovery efforts from the devastating flooding due to Hurricane Irene may be hampered by an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain. Tornadoes from Lee are a potential hazard today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the Northern Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. A tornado watch is posted for the region, but no tornadoes have been reported as of 9 am CDT.
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia finally overcame the wind shear and dry air interfering with it, and intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this morning. Latest satellite loops show a well-defined eye for the first time, but the hurricane still has a lopsided appearance, due to he impacts of dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots on its southwest side.
Katia will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days, but may be a threat to the U.S. late this week. The computer models disagree considerably on the position and strength of a trough of low pressure that will develop over the Eastern U.S. late this week, and thus how Katia will be steered. The evolution of this trough will be strongly affected by Tropical Storm Lee, and the models are not very skillful at predicting transitions from tropical storm to extratropical storm, which will happen to Lee by Wednesday this week. We have two of our reliable models--the ECMWF and UKMET--predicting that the trough will form farther west, steering Katia very close to North Carolina late this week. The rest of the models predict a more easterly position of the trough, which would force Katia to turn northwards towards Canada well before reaching North Carolina. Either scenario is possible, and it will probably be at least another day before the models converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. It's likely that locations on the U.S. coast south of North Carolina will not receive a direct hit from Katia, but the entire coast from North Carolina northwards to New England and Canada's Maritime Provinces is definitely at risk. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas tonight, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.
Elsewhere in the tropics
This week and next week typically mark the two most active weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season, and there are two potential threat areas we need to watch. The GFS model predicts that a tropical depression could form in the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Friday or Saturday this week. Several other models give support to this idea, and predict such a storm would track northwards or north-northeastwards towards the northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The other region to watch is between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting that a tropical wave currently near the coast of Africa could develop into a tropical depression late this week, and arrive in the northern Lesser Antilles by Saturday or Sunday.
Jeff Masters
This is what happens when you do not tie up your boat....
This was taken in Pass Christian MS
Reader Comments
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A little more to the south please. TS is good for us, plus it's fun!
I believe part of the eye you are seeing is some dry air that got in......IMO
You rock Tampa.
Thanx for the Chat room and all the help the help for Oz!
LOOK at the freight train of waves coming in the Atlantic........GEESH!
You did a great job too Doug.....OZ was blind and dumb without ya..........LOL
Link
Don't look for that to happen. Some models are showing very large ridging now all the way to the SE US.......change is coming it appears.
Sounds like we both got woken up with the same weather radio alert! Yeah, 1 to 2 inches of rain expected today and tonight. Flood watch through Weds morning. Lovely.
IF THIS IS CORRECT.........NO openings for storms to move out to sea.........We Got a Problem!
woah , did these move back <---
This just might be the Texas rain maker........fingers crossed!
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 605 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Just realized i posted the older one.......an opening does come up.......but, it ain't a good one.......DAM!
oh yes, isnt it wonderful...get 1 holiday to sleep in, and wouldnt you think that i get up earliest on a holiday!!!
AXNT20 KNHC 051137
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE KATIA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.9N 62.0W AT 05/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 350 NM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 525
NM S-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
22N-24N BETWEEN 62W-64W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 21N-27N
BETWEEN 60W-65W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 15N29W TO
5N27W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W
OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 10N-13N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 27W-34W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
19N45W TO 14N42W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH DRIER AIR UNDERCUTTING THE WAVE
AXIS. WAVE REMAINS LOCATED AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
IS GENERATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE ITSELF.
...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR DAKAR SENEGAL TO 13N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS
ANALYZED FROM 8N48W 9N52W TO GUYANA SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 12W-18W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF LEE CONTINUES TO GENERATE BANDS OF SCATTERED/
HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF N OF 24N
E OF 91W AND INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST E OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TO NE FLORIDA. AT 05/0900 UTC A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF
WATERS NEAR VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST S
OF CORPUS CHRISTI WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS S
TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF WATERS JUST
E OF ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 27N92W TO 24N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W GULF WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE E GULF. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ALONG THE S COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO BETWEEN EL
SALVADOR TO NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N BETWEEN
91W-95W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DIG SE THROUGH THE W GULF TODAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY FROM NE GULF TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WED THROUGH
FRI.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TIP
OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE GIVING THE NW
CARIBBEAN NE FLOW ALOFT GENERATING ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO THE COAST
OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W-85W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ACROSS NICARAGUA NEAR
12N84W GENERATING ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM 17N80W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY E OF 73W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. WHILE HURRICANE KATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NW AWAY
FROM TROPICAL ATLC. THE CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATE WED AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY
FRI.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE KATIA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...THE
GREATER ANTILLES...AND EAST FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR
MORE INFORMATION. THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY NORTHERLY FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N W OF
79W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE KATIA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC INTO THE TROPICS
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N25W SW TO
16N41W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 37W-44W. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY N OF 20N WITH A
WEAKNESS SURROUNDING HURRICANE KATIA AND ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH NEAR 33N51W. HURRICANE KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE W ATLC THROUGH WED MOVING N OF THE AREA THU MORNING.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
PAW
As someone else said, it appears that a pocket of dry air worked its way into the center of circulation, but convection quickly wrapped around it, and the storm definitely appears to be re-strengthening. Katia is beautiful at the moment...
Beauty is almost always dangerous.
Click for larger image:
Tell me about it; I've been married more than once... ;-)
Henry Margusity, just posted: "Katia will be a close call the end of the week. Still think no hit but perhaps a brushing along the outerbanks."
Your thoughts?
Texas are frightening, Watched a coupla videos from last night, news videos
The firefighter's spokeslady said that their primary concern
last night was evacuations
ensuring the safety of humans
she said please, if you are downwind, to be prepared to leave immediately
It was taking a lotta the firefighter's/emergency personel's time, to get folks moving for the evacs
We now have the first two deaths
95L is a curiosity right now, but please keep info on the Texas fires coming
I know it's a cliche at this point, but Texas just can't get a break; every piece of good news is offset by equal--or worse--bad news.
Good news: TS Lee forms in the Gulf.
Bad news: Lee misses the state entirely.
Good news: a cold front yesterday broke the months-long heat wave (for example, yesterday was the first since May 27 that Wichita Falls failed to reach 90 degrees).
Bad news: the front, combined with the winds on Lee's left side, brought strong and drying winds that fanned deadly and destructive fires.
Good news: temps across the state are downright chilly; many Panhandle towns are in the mid 40s this morning.
Bad news: 100-degree temps are expected to return by next week to many areas.
Good news: fall and then winter are coming, so the hot and dry weather will eventually be gone for many months.
Bad news: Texas' State climatologist says 2012 may be just as dry--if not drier.
AL, 95, 2011090512, , BEST, 0, 91N, 297W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Link
theirs a hint of the tail end of lee to try and spin something up their and a couple models are showing this as well (just my observation thanks)
Link
This link is the incidents page for Austin and Travis counties. Link
And this is Austin's Homeland Security Page which includes road closures and power outages, ya gotta scroll down a little, it's on the right side of the page.
Link
Yeah, I tend to have that effect. Got any ballyhoo for me to rig? :)
One report- well about three reports- from last night documented the killing and cutting of power lines so the fire helo's could safely drop water without fear of hitting them.
they're serious out there.
The fires have claimed many homes and two lives so far. These aren't just brush fires.
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