Lee drenching the Gulf Coast; Katia a Cat 2
Tropical Storm Lee made landfall on the southern coast of Louisiana near 4 am CDT this morning, and continues to inch slowly northward and dump very heavy rains. The storm is not a threat to intensify, since its center lies over land, but enough of the storm's circulation is over water that Lee will be slow to weaken. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, 8.85" inches of rain had fallen from Lee as of 9 am CDT this morning. Top winds this morning hit 46 mph, gusting to 57 mph, at 6:28 am CDT, when a heavy squall blew in. Latest satellite loops show Lee has lost quite a bit of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, but the storm remains a formidable rain-maker. Lee brought a storm surge of 4 feet to New Canal Station in Lake Pontchartrain and at Shell Beach east of New Orleans yesterday afternoon. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center reported eight probable tornadoes from Lee yesterday. These tornadoes damaged approximately ten buildings, but caused no deaths or injuries.
Figure 1. Observed rainfall for the seven-day period ending at 8 am EDT Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Tropical Storm Lee had dumped 5 -10 inches of rain over a large swath of the coast, with a few areas in excess of ten inches (pink colors). Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.
Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period 8am EDT Sunday - 8 am EDT Friday, Sep 9, 2011. Lee is expected to bring a large swath of 4+ inches of rain all the way to the mid-Atlantic. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Forecast for Lee
Lee's large size and slow movement will make heavy rains the main concern today. Later in the week, the remnants of Lee's may be a problem for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where recovery efforts from the devastating flooding due to Hurricane Irene may be hampered by an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain. Tornadoes from Lee are a potential hazard today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the Northern Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. A tornado watch is posted for the region, but no tornadoes have been reported as of 9 am CDT.
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia finally overcame the wind shear and dry air interfering with it, and intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this morning. Latest satellite loops show a well-defined eye for the first time, but the hurricane still has a lopsided appearance, due to he impacts of dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots on its southwest side.
Katia will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days, but may be a threat to the U.S. late this week. The computer models disagree considerably on the position and strength of a trough of low pressure that will develop over the Eastern U.S. late this week, and thus how Katia will be steered. The evolution of this trough will be strongly affected by Tropical Storm Lee, and the models are not very skillful at predicting transitions from tropical storm to extratropical storm, which will happen to Lee by Wednesday this week. We have two of our reliable models--the ECMWF and UKMET--predicting that the trough will form farther west, steering Katia very close to North Carolina late this week. The rest of the models predict a more easterly position of the trough, which would force Katia to turn northwards towards Canada well before reaching North Carolina. Either scenario is possible, and it will probably be at least another day before the models converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. It's likely that locations on the U.S. coast south of North Carolina will not receive a direct hit from Katia, but the entire coast from North Carolina northwards to New England and Canada's Maritime Provinces is definitely at risk. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas tonight, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.
Elsewhere in the tropics
This week and next week typically mark the two most active weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season, and there are two potential threat areas we need to watch. The GFS model predicts that a tropical depression could form in the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Friday or Saturday this week. Several other models give support to this idea, and predict such a storm would track northwards or north-northeastwards towards the northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The other region to watch is between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting that a tropical wave currently near the coast of Africa could develop into a tropical depression late this week, and arrive in the northern Lesser Antilles by Saturday or Sunday.
Jeff Masters
This is what happens when you do not tie up your boat....
This was taken in Pass Christian MS
Reader Comments
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Those are lies! XD LOL!
Also...
95L off to a good start.
05/1200 UTC 9.5N 29.6W T1.5/1.5 95L
Lee... has not surrendered.... and some models have the return trip showing.
Katia... Wow
95L... Tracking towards the Islands.
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Considering Katia wold play a major roll on 95L's path I have no comments. XD
I remember Earl being pretty difficult to predict due to Danielle's influence last year.
As long as she is not in your gene pool.. which appears to be fairly shallow... she still needs to be watched.
And Eve formed off of Adam.
LOL
95L looks better...more realistic than Katia, anyway...
Katia is going under some even warmer water, and at that slow speed, it can go under rapid intensification.
Does anyone think that it could graze Bermuda??? If so, let me know please.
But I was a lurker in 2004 during the 4 cane parade through Florida. I go way back!
I'm bound to get a few storms confused.
JMA
Annular??
Katia won't have an impact on 95L's track, they are well away from each other.
Waves for the east coast and deadly rip currents at least.
idk about you guys but Katia looks like a major hurricane to mw
No.
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/05/11 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
LoL
How can the ocean be "bone dry" I don't get it..water everywhere. I've never been in the caribbean when it hasn't been humid.
I agree maybe a Cat 4, no way this is a Cat 2.
That's a pretty amazing turnaround. Amarillo has had a record number of days at or above 90 this year--107 so far--and, more dramatically, a full 50 days at or above 100, which is astounding considering that the previous record was 26, and the average is (was?) just six.
FWIW, Amarillo is expected to be back in the 90s again by next weekend; enjoy the brief cool spell if you're there...
Ok TY
Not quite. She still has spiral bands.
Got a blast of heavy rain at my place, the shower definitely had the gusty, chaotic feel of a tropical cyclone squall.
She's MoltenIce's girl.
This is breaking my heart :-( I'm from Texas, moved away just 4 months ago to the NE, to see my home burning is too much for me to take.
There is no way this is a Category 4. A weak Category 3, possibly.
So sorry. The situation is beyond terrifying.
well, the water vapor satellite is based on mid and upper dry air, you can have very moist and warm air near the surface but very dry air above, makes sense?
Read what I posted about hurricanes.
Cat 3. Looks like one.
yeah, I'll go with that
http://travis.uslakes.info/Level.asp
Pretty close to the 2009 low :-(
Thanks for the update...hope your daughter and her house continue to be safe from the fire. Wish I could have sent a few inches of our rain her way :( We got nearly 10" here in St. Tammany Parish, LA.
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 SEP 2011 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 24:21:18 N Lon : 62:52:15 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.0mb/102.0kt
yeah, I agree, not 4 yet, 110 to 125 seems the likely range right now.
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