Lee drenching the Gulf Coast; Katia a Cat 2
Tropical Storm Lee made landfall on the southern coast of Louisiana near 4 am CDT this morning, and continues to inch slowly northward and dump very heavy rains. The storm is not a threat to intensify, since its center lies over land, but enough of the storm's circulation is over water that Lee will be slow to weaken. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, 8.85" inches of rain had fallen from Lee as of 9 am CDT this morning. Top winds this morning hit 46 mph, gusting to 57 mph, at 6:28 am CDT, when a heavy squall blew in. Latest satellite loops show Lee has lost quite a bit of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, but the storm remains a formidable rain-maker. Lee brought a storm surge of 4 feet to New Canal Station in Lake Pontchartrain and at Shell Beach east of New Orleans yesterday afternoon. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center reported eight probable tornadoes from Lee yesterday. These tornadoes damaged approximately ten buildings, but caused no deaths or injuries.
Figure 1. Observed rainfall for the seven-day period ending at 8 am EDT Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Tropical Storm Lee had dumped 5 -10 inches of rain over a large swath of the coast, with a few areas in excess of ten inches (pink colors). Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.
Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period 8am EDT Sunday - 8 am EDT Friday, Sep 9, 2011. Lee is expected to bring a large swath of 4+ inches of rain all the way to the mid-Atlantic. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Forecast for Lee
Lee's large size and slow movement will make heavy rains the main concern today. Later in the week, the remnants of Lee's may be a problem for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where recovery efforts from the devastating flooding due to Hurricane Irene may be hampered by an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain. Tornadoes from Lee are a potential hazard today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the Northern Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. A tornado watch is posted for the region, but no tornadoes have been reported as of 9 am CDT.
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia finally overcame the wind shear and dry air interfering with it, and intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this morning. Latest satellite loops show a well-defined eye for the first time, but the hurricane still has a lopsided appearance, due to he impacts of dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots on its southwest side.
Katia will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days, but may be a threat to the U.S. late this week. The computer models disagree considerably on the position and strength of a trough of low pressure that will develop over the Eastern U.S. late this week, and thus how Katia will be steered. The evolution of this trough will be strongly affected by Tropical Storm Lee, and the models are not very skillful at predicting transitions from tropical storm to extratropical storm, which will happen to Lee by Wednesday this week. We have two of our reliable models--the ECMWF and UKMET--predicting that the trough will form farther west, steering Katia very close to North Carolina late this week. The rest of the models predict a more easterly position of the trough, which would force Katia to turn northwards towards Canada well before reaching North Carolina. Either scenario is possible, and it will probably be at least another day before the models converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. It's likely that locations on the U.S. coast south of North Carolina will not receive a direct hit from Katia, but the entire coast from North Carolina northwards to New England and Canada's Maritime Provinces is definitely at risk. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas tonight, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.
Elsewhere in the tropics
This week and next week typically mark the two most active weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season, and there are two potential threat areas we need to watch. The GFS model predicts that a tropical depression could form in the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Friday or Saturday this week. Several other models give support to this idea, and predict such a storm would track northwards or north-northeastwards towards the northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The other region to watch is between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting that a tropical wave currently near the coast of Africa could develop into a tropical depression late this week, and arrive in the northern Lesser Antilles by Saturday or Sunday.
Jeff Masters
This is what happens when you do not tie up your boat....
This was taken in Pass Christian MS
Reader Comments
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I hope so too, we've known him for years. I think it would be prudent to leave him a message on his blog :)
Thanks, I have family in Steiner Ranch, the subdivision that had to be evacuated in Austin. I know they were able to make it out okay but I will relay this information on to them. Thanks
Its a combination of both. Lee's circulation has pulled the frontal boundry deep into the GOM. There are north winds in the western GOM and southerly winds on the eastern GOM.
This area will need to be watched for development.
NO. The names are just alternated female/male/female to be politically correct. At storm is a storm is a storm..annular or not.
He is probably the most beloved blogger on this blog. Stay around a while and you will see.
Thanks!
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 SEP 2011 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 24:28:51 N Lon : 63:10:42 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 956.8mb/104.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.1 6.1
And while we still have to watch the tropics, certainly, one big advantage of a stout cold front such as this, is all of the dry air and shear dumped in the gulf.
Doubtful that the GoM moistens enough to host a Katrina, Rita, etc. type intensity this fall. (Caveat: Depending on how far into the GoM this dry air goes.)
Not quite a 1-2, because the target area will be further east of where Lee hit. Looking more like a FL Panhandle/Big Bend hit.
And more than likely, as a moderate- to weak TS or even hybrid storm due to all that dry air to its west.
Anthony
That was my attempt at a little humor this morning :)
If anything develops, it will head farther east than Lee did. Would be of no help to Texas, unfortunately.
it will all so help the blog out if you dont : Quote him
How's it going down there in Houston? It's a nice 75F up here in DFW...
yup 2nd cat 3 of the year but the nhc may even go a little higher
Yeah, and the GFSwunderground has a low starting to develop as early as tomorrow in the BOC.
012L/MH/K/C3
MARK
24.23N/63.33W
thatis cuting it a little too close
Morning, y'all.
Lee is finally done here in S Cen LA....and in his place we are getting...early October weather. Low 80's for highs? UPPER 40's for Wednesday morning lows???
As bad as I feel for Texas still suffering from that Death Ridge, it's sure making our weather picture perfect. Not to mention, putting the block on any tropical systems making it up here for the next two to three weeks.
Still, there's late September and October left to go, and anything can happen. (See Lili, Juan, etc.)
And I almost want a system to come close to here just to knock that darn drought out of Texas. Almost, that is.
Anthony
Anthony dear, The Texas "Death Ridge" has new meaning today... Whie the drought is horrendous, people are dying in wild fires here in TX. While I am glad you have wonderful fall like temps and have had a nice rain, those of us in the Lone Star state are in a dire race against wildfires.
So keep your fingers crossed for us and if ya happen to see a little tropical storm anywhere, send it our way...thanks :o)
(Click to enlarge)
Agree..but the models have it toward FL panhandle.. No relief for us yet. The GFS is showing something much later and lower in the Caribbean that could be threatening. I want rain but then again I also don't want a cat3+. Trade-offs, right..
WOW!! Katia has her eye wide open now. She needs to hurry and turn that eye away from the east coast..lol
i 95L could be a vary strong storm
How much farther east in your opinion?
KOG - could you tell me what this means? i've been meaning to ask..TIA
nop i looked it up
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS
Ugly but probably accurate..
12Z GFS
Florida.
that is way way too close
2011SEP05 154500 6.1 945.3/ -0.1 /117.4 6.1 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF
UW-CIMMS ADT still has it slightly weaker, but still a major. IMO, Katia is a 105-110 kt Major hurricane.
We were talking about just that late last night...While I would hate to see damage to anyone beach home, business or the like, something has to give here. These fires are out of control and people are dying and losing everything.. over 300 homes destroyed just in the Bastrop fire, 2 known killed so far ( 20 yr old mother and her 18 month old daughter)
I have been through some Major "Canes" and I hate to say this, but right now, I would take anything I can get right how and deal with the ramifications if it will help extinguish all those fires....But that is just me.
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