Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Texas fires will diminish today; Lee's rains set all-time records

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:27 PM GMT on September 06, 2011

+32

East Texas' dangerous fires continued to rage out of control yesterday, thanks to gusty north winds associated with the passage of a cold front and the remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Lee. Since Saturday, wildfires have torched over 500 homes in East Texas and killed two people. At Austin Bergstrom Airport, sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph, gusting to 30 - 35 mph blew much of the day yesterday. Tropical Storm Lee's remnants didn't bring any clouds or moisture to Austin yesterday, and the temperature climbed to 91°, with a humidity of just 11%. With the region enduring it's driest 1-year drought on record, yesterday's heat, dryness, and winds resulted in critical fire conditions. The forecast today for Austin is much better--winds will be only 5 - 10 mph, which should give firefighters the upper hand in many of the blazes, despite low humidities that will be in the 15 - 25% range. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is not predicting that critical fire weather conditions will return during the remainder of the week. You can monitor today's fire activity by using our wundermap for Austin with the fire layer turned on.

Figure 1. True-color image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite of the the fires burning near Austin, Texas on September 5, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Video 1. Video shot by a motorist on Highway 21 near Austin, Texas of the smoke from the fires that raced through Bastrop County on September 4, 2011.The highway closes and the motorist is forced to turn around.

Texas' unprecedented heat
As I reported in yesterday's post, there has never been a Texas summer hotter than the summer of 2011. The summer of 2011 now holds every major heat record for the city of Austin, including most 100° days (67 so far), hottest month in recorded history (August, breaking the previous record by a remarkable 2.1°), hottest summer (by 1.1°), and hottest day in history (112°F, tied with Sep, 5, 2000.) As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt documents in his latest blog post, the situation is similar across the rest of the state. Seventeen major cities in Texas recorded their hottest summer on record in 2011. Most of these stations had records extending back more than 100 years, and several of the records were smashed by an amazing 3.4°F--at Lubbock and at Wichita Falls. Neighboring states also experienced unprecedented heat, with Oklahoma recording America's hottest month by any state in recorded history during July, and Shreveport, Louisiana breaking its record for hottest month by 3°F in August. Mr. Burt commented to me: " I do not believe I have ever seen a site with a long period of record, like Shreveport, where records go back to 1874, break its warmest single month on record by an astonishing 3°. This is unheard of. Usually when a site breaks its single month temperature record, we are talking about tenths of a degree, rarely a whole degree, let alone 3 degrees! Hard to believe, frankly." Texas has also had its worst fire season on record, with over 3.5 million acres burned this year, and it's driest 1-year period in recorded history.

Figure 2. Observed soil moisture for Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Soil moisture is expressed in percent, with 50% being a historically average soil moisture level. Very dry soils, with moistures in the driest 1% - 30% in history (red and orange colors), were present over much of the south, where Lee dropped its heaviest rains. These dry soils have limited flooding damage. Image credit: N OAA Climate Prediction Center.

Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Jackson, Mississippi received 11.68" in a 24 hour period yesterday, which is that city's heaviest 24-hour rainfall on record, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Their previous record was 8.54", set April 11 -12, 1979. Fortunately, Jackson was in severe drought, and the dry soils were able to absorb a significant amount of rain before the local rivers began flooding. The Pearl River at Jackson rose above flood stage this morning, and is expected to crest at moderate flood stage late this week. Chattanooga, Tennessee also set its record for the wettest 24-hour period in its history, with 9.85" falling yesterday. The previous record was 7.61", set on March 30, 1886. Again, the dry soils that were present before the event started will help keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range on area rivers. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop over seven inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate and possibly major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 25 tornado reports over the past three days from Lee, including three near Atlanta, Georgia yesterday. More tornadoes are likely today over North Carolina, Southern Virginia, and Northern South Carolina, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Florence, MS: 13.45"
Tillman's Corner, AL: 11.74"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Chattanooga, TN: 9.85"
Rome, GA: 5.70"
Roanoake, VA: 4.30"
Bluefield, WV: 3.14"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Flatwoods, KY: 3.67"

Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the 2-day period 8am EDT Tuesday - 8 am EDT Thursday, Sep 8, 2011. Lee's remnants are expected to bring a large swath of 7+ inches of rain into Central Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia strengthened this morning into the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane of the year, but has slipped slightly in intensity due to an eyewall replacement cycle, and is now a strong Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that the eye has now disappeared, and the hurricane is having trouble maintaining its eyewall in the face of moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots on its northwest side. Continued weakening to a Category 2 storm is a possibility, though Katia will probably re-strengthen later today or on Wednesday once it manages to build a new eyewall.

The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north well before the storm reaches the U.S. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Long period swells from Katia have arrived at the coast, and the entire U.S. East Coast will receive an extended multi-day period of high surf. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.

Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.

95L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of intense thunderstorm activity and spin is located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave, Invest 95L, is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 mph. Recent satellite loops show that 95L has an elongated circulation center; this will need to tighten up into a more circular shape before the storm can become a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28°C, which is 1.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next four days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, I don't see anything that would keep 95L from becoming a tropical depression in 1 - 2 days. NHC is giving 95L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. There is a large amount of model support for development of 95L into a tropical depression, with most of the models predicting it could be a weak tropical storm by the time it reaches the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday. Residents of the islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions arriving as early as Friday. Most of the models predict 95L will follow a path near or slightly north of the Northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, then curve northwestwards, on a trajectory that would likely miss the Bahamas.

New Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee yesterday morning, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, but are still not very concentrated or organized. Most of the computer models develop a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche late this week, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, a new Gulf of Mexico tropical depression by late this week appears likely. The path such a storm might take would depend strongly on where the center forms. A more northerly formation location near the top of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would likely result in a northward motion towards the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution of the European Center Model (ECMWF), which takes a weak tropical storm with a central pressure of 1000 mb into the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. A more southerly formation location might lead to the storm getting trapped in a region of weak steering currents, resulting in a slow, erratic motion in the southern Gulf. This is the solution of the latest runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models. NHC is giving this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Figure 5. Volunteers with Portlight.org disaster relief charity take a break from their Hurricane Irene relief efforts in Pink Hill, NC. From their latest blog post:Please help as you can. And please remember in your thoughts and prayers those in the path of Irene.

Jeff Masters

Crockett Texas Wildfire 2 (Moussifer)

A tree becomes a torch. We could hear the fire's roar.

Bastrop's Burnin (CenTexWeatherGal)

This HUGE fire has already burned over 500 homes and over 30,000 acres. It is 0, yes 0 percent contained and stretches 16 miles long and 6 miles wide. The smoke plume can be seen on dopler radar. This fire is actually to the north east of Bastrop which is east of Austin.

Magnolia Fire (shanzi)

Mighty close!

flood (lazzyhazy1)

Categories: Fire Flood Hurricane

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1301. lottotexas 12:10 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
HAARP anyone? Member Since: December 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 7

1302. wunderweatherman123 12:11 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting Levi32: I don't like giving percentages. It could go either way as we're talking about 8-10 days out. This will be another case where a 50 mile shift in the track could matter a lot down the road. ok so its too hard to call out a recurve right away and this wont be a katia situation due to the fact it will be affecting land (northern islands) do you like the nhc track and if it were up to you where would you adjust it? Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 843

1303. caneswatch 12:11 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting palmpt: A big time POOF!!!!!!! Word. Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4479

1304. HurricaneNewb 12:11 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting Krycek1984: Not everyone hates chilly weather :). I am in Cleveland and do not mind winter too much...although by February it gets to be a bit much. Just like by teh end of August the heat gets to be too much...I like the variation in the seasons, and snow is SO beautiful, it's one of my very favorite things on Earth. I want a Conservatory on our house soooo bad to look at the snow in winter. But do you get 32 degree/s in Sept lol? Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 197

1305. WxLogic 12:11 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
21Z VORT 850MB: Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4720

1306. AussieStorm 12:11 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting opsman27N82W: It's not that bad here, some folks just need to get out more. You kinda climatize! Pat 96L not "supposed" to go to Tampa right! It's not bad in the Philippines also. But in Summer it can be very very very hot. there is 3 seasons in the Philippines. Hot and Dry, Hot and Wet and Hot/warm days coolish nights. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13764

1307. Levi32 12:11 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Third time is a charm...so I'll ask ONE more time. Does ANYBODY have the link to TAFB and SAB?! Pretty sure it's in here Otherwise the easy version is here, which I assume is TAFB/SAB values. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25600

1309. Dakster 12:11 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting Levi32: It was 32 degrees Fahrenheit yesterday morning when I woke up. Having a heat wave? Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 5260

1310. hurricanehunter27 12:11 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting Drakoen: GFDL 18z TD14: Exact copy of Irene? Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3658

1312. spathy 12:12 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm: Just like the Cockroaches here. They can survive my size 12 foot. Btw, was that a grasshopper or a locust? Its a Grasshopper from heck! Once it molts and gets its yellow and orange colors its almost completely immune to any insecticide. Its called a Lubber Grasshopper. Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10529

1314. HurricaneNewb 12:13 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
NOt knocking Alaska at all we went the end of July and had some really beautiful weather 60s to low 80/s couldnt imagine 32 in Sept to cold for me, wouldnt mind 4-5 months since i spent alot of time in Germany in the Military. Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 197

1316. robj144 12:13 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Florisiana? (Louisiana+Florida) No...that's how Florida is abbreviated. Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 820

1317. AussieStorm 12:13 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Third time is a charm...so I'll ask ONE more time. Does ANYBODY have the link to TAFB and SAB?! Link This what your looking for? Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13764

1318. tropicfreak 12:14 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting basti11: Does anyone know where Storm W is? Banned. Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6612

1319. wunderweatherman123 12:14 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Exact copy of Irene? wont be an irene due to the fact that the jetstream will be further south. it could be an irene up to north carolina but if it makes landfall in north carolina it would go northeast after and out to sea. or it could just take a normal recurve track into the coast of southcarolina or florida. still way too far out to call all of that Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 843

1320. Levi32 12:15 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting HurricaneNewb: NOt knocking Alaska at all we went the end of July and had some really beautiful weather 60s to low 80/s couldnt imagine 32 in Sept to cold for me, wouldnt mind 4-5 months since i spent alot of time in Germany in the Military. See, after 75 degrees all summer I was nearly dead, so I am exceedingly happy to see the 40s and 50s come back for the daytime temps. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25600

1321. Skyepony (Mod) 12:15 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting Patrap: AF306 my Fav Keesler Bird. Wonder where they going skye? Odd with that ID number..doesn't seem like a plane shuffle to St Croix. Nothing since. It either didn't take off or they turned off the HDOB. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29944

1322. HurricaneNewb 12:15 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak: Banned. Think theres a foot header somewhere on the site with info. Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 197

1323. spathy 12:15 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
BTW Aussie. Speaking of bugs. Can you send me some of your aquatic "BUGS" crustations. I absolutely fell in love with that gastronomic delight! Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10529

1325. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:15 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Troll Alert: C3 Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25929

1326. Dakster 12:16 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting basti11: Does anyone know where Storm W is? Yes... Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 5260

1327. BobinTampa 12:16 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting basti11: Does anyone know where Storm W is? Hi Senior Chief!! Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 508

1328. docrod 12:16 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
1313 Member Since: September 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0 Trolling?? Member Since: April 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 631

1329. Landfall2004 12:16 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting HurricaneNewb: Just spit out my Southern Comfort what a waste ROFLMBO WHAT A WASTE is right! Ever had it in EggNog? My Fave. Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 147

1331. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:17 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting Levi32: Pretty sure it's in here Otherwise the easy version is here, which I assume is TAFB/SAB values. Thank you Levi. Quoting AussieStorm: Link This what your looking for? Thanks. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25929

1332. Tazmanian 12:17 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting basti11: Does anyone know where Storm W is? banned Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111610

1333. HurricaneNewb 12:18 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting Levi32: See, after 75 degrees all summer I was nearly dead, so I am exceedingly happy to see the 40s and 50s come back for the daytime temps. We flew into Anchorage and stayed in Wasilla ranged from 60-80 the two weeks we were there traveled all around beatiful State Levi saw every animal possible. Glad to hear your happy with the cold hehe) Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 197

1335. defdogz 12:18 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting HurricaneNewb: But do you get 32 degree/s in Sept lol? Not likely, but possible. 42 overnight here last night, patchy frost and temps as low as 38 just a few miles north of me. Too cool for this time of year, but a welcome relief. Just need a few more nice warm, sunny days to finish ripening the last of my tomatoes....... Member Since: August 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 35

1338. BobinTampa 12:19 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting beell: Of course I believe you Gilbert. But I have not mentioned it to anybody. You've said to much! Remember your oath!! Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 508

1340. will40 12:20 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
you nut heads are doing exactly what he wants by quoting him. Geesh Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

1341. AussieStorm 12:20 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting spathy: BTW Aussie. Speaking of bugs. Can you send me some of your aquatic "BUGS" crustations. I absolutely fell in love with that gastronomic delight! Do you mean these Balmain Bugs? Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13764

1342. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:20 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting GilbertAllen: I really don't think the United States has ever gone over 20 years between Category 4 storms in recent history clearly the government is doing something to weaken storms, and very recently has gotten the ability to deflect them. The NHC is still needed for the Caribbean nations, but it seems the troughs are now strong enough to break through to the far eastern Atlantic. Katia was just a Category 4 hurricane last night...Before that, there were several last season... Bye troll. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25929

1346. Neapolitan 12:22 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Katia still at 90 knots: AL, 12, 2011090700, , BEST, 0, 278N, 669W, 90, 963, HU, 64, NEQ, 70, 60, 40, 50, 1012, 275, 55, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KATIA, D, Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11284

1347. HCW 12:22 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

1349. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:22 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
No change in strength for Hurricane Katia...Still a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane. AL, 12, 2011090700, , BEST, 0, 278N, 669W, 90, 963, HU, 64, NEQ, 70, 60, 40, 50, 1012, 275, 55, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KATIA, D, Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25929

1351. spathy 12:22 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm: Do you mean these Balmain Bugs? Oh YES! Just the BEST! I would pay almost anything to indulge in a few of those critters again! Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10529

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