Tropical Storms Nate, Maria have formed; 2011 season on the heels of 2005's numbers
Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon after Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation in Invest 96L. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equalling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.
This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission into Invest 96L/Nate found maximum sustained winds of at least 45 mph, and minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Wind shear in the region is low and is expected to remain low for the next 48 hours. Sea surface temperature is toasty in the Gulf at around 30°C (86°F) and more than ample to support intensification. Nate will bring heavy rains and potential flooding and mudslides to Mexico, and according to some weather models, also has the potential to be a U.S. landfall threat. Nate's surface circulation is apparent on satellite loops, although the thunderstorm activity in the storm is displaced from the center. It appears the strongest storms are to the southwest and northeast of the center. East of the storm, thunderstorms are churning associated with the stationary front that's draped across Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Yucatan Peninsula. This stationary front is left over from the cold front that pushed south through the central and eastern U.S. earlier this week, and created a focal point in the Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Storm Nate to form. It's notoriously difficult for weather models and forecasters to predict tropical cyclones that spin up in the Gulf of Mexico, but lead-time for both Nate and our previous Gulf cyclone, Lee, was generous.
Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Nate at 6:15pm EDT.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Nate
Given the favorable environment, in addition to a very warm pocket of sea surface waters in the central Gulf of Mexico, we expect that Nate will intensify modestly over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Nate will become the third hurricane of the season by Friday. The HWRF and ECMWF agree with this forecast—both of these models bring Nate to a category 2 hurricane by Saturday. The IVCN/ICON consensus models that the Hurricane Center relies on are more conservative, peaking at category 1 intensity. Nate's maximum potential intensity is heavily dependent on its track, which, according to the weather models, has been up in the air for the past few of days. Until this afternoon's run, the ECMWF has held true to its forecast that Nate will track north and make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. This afternoon, it backed off of that solution and is now forecasting a northern Mexico landfall. The GFS has consistently forecasted a track that lingers in the Bay of Campeche for a few days before ultimately making dive to the west into Mexico. Over the past few days the Canadian CMC model has been reluctant to develop Nate at all, but today is forecasting the system to track north into the Southeast U.S. states. Now that there is Hurricane Hunter data to ingest (as well as confirmed 45 mph surface wind speeds), we expect the models will come into better agreement on both track and intensity for Tropical Storm Nate.
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Depression 14 was named Tropical Storm Maria late this morning, as well. The storm is still pretty far east in the Atlantic, 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Islands, but is moving quickly to the west at 23 mph. According to the National Hurricane Center, Maria looks well-organized on satellite, "but not really." If you look closely at satellite loops (especially the loops that you can catch before the sun sets in that area), you'll see the surface circulation is located to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity. Well-organized tropical cyclones will be vertically stacked in the atmosphere, with the strongest thunderstorms directly on top of the surface circulation. Maria's disjointed-ness is likely due to a pretty strong clip of wind shear (30 knots worth) in the area. This would usually be deadly for a tropical cyclone of Maria's strength, but since the storm is moving so quickly to the west, the Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to remain somewhat intact for the next 5 days, although the forecast is for no intensification. Models are coming into better agreement on the track of this system. Prior to today, the ECMWF was forecasting a track south of Puerto Rico, but has since changed its mind and is now in agreement with many of the other models on a track skirting the northern Leeward Islands and missing the Greater Antilles to the north. Beyond this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty depending on steering winds in the Atlantic. It's still too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting Maria has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.
Angela
Reader Comments
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That spinning blob in the Gulf of Honduras looks interesting, too.
my favorite movie of all-time! I was with you the whole way!
Make sure you schedule that for a Mon. or Tues. landing so we at least get a day out of work this time and not just have our weekend rained out LOL!
When I first looked at it, I thought that was the potential track for Nate...
I think that Maria makes a more southerly track and then once beyond say the Bahamas, the track will either come extremely close to FL / SC/ NC coast before turning sharply back N to NE towards Bermuda OR scenario #2 would be a N course into the east side of NC.
I think the 3 day track is fairly accurate for Nate, and for Maria I think the 3 day track may adjust for her shifting somewhat south. Long range track for Maria looks more complicated than Nate which begs the question - ....how do you solve a problem like Maria? How do you catch a cloud and pin it down? How do you find a word that means Maria? A flibbertijibbet! A will-o'-the wisp! A clown!
Sorry- couldnt resist
dude, it's all good. At lest you back it up with reasons why...if more people did that it would be better wunderworld. I would personally never put 98% on anything...lol that is really putting yourself out there is all. Thanks for you conviction i guess.
All I see is lots of dry air and nothing getting really organized?
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 51.2W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WTNT44 KNHC 081443
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011
MARIA IS MOVING VERY FAST...AT ABOUT 19-22 KNOTS...AND PROBABLY NO
LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL CHECK IF THAT IS THE CASE LATER TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND
CONSISTS OF A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE RAINBANDS ARE STILL 40 KNOTS AND THIS
IS THE INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...EVEN IF MARIA DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL
WAVE...CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
REGENERATE AS IT SLOWS DOWN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT AS
HOSTILE AS THEY WERE INDICATING IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW AN AGGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN.
MARIA IS SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS
FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
AFTER THAT...A WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE CLUSTERED HAVING MARIA OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS IN FIVE DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 13.0N 51.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 13.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 13.8N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 14.5N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 16.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 19.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 22.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 25.0N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Yeah, i have only been through the eyewall of David, Hugo, Fran, Georges, Ivan, (twice), Katrina, Rita and Gustav... With a near misses on Andrew and Emily. (Emily stayed just offshore, Andrew was just too violent, i (wisely) backed off about 40 miles North of Homestead.
Plus quite a few tropical storms.
I probably know very little about hurricanes compared to someone like you, however.
I know with a 98% certainty that i could never make a landfall prediction with 98% certainty this early, and in such a weak environment...
That's probably due to my inexperience, however...
+1000... regardless if your right or wrong, you made a forecast and back it up with your reasoning behind it. Most mets say model consenus and are afraid to make a prediction for fear of being wrong. Mother nature will do whatever she wants regardless of models or predictions.
I never said he was going anywhere, I simply wishcast him to arrive on Mon. or Tues. IF he decides to come this way like Lee did and NOT ruin my weekend with 9 inches of rain again. I think it's a toss up right now, 50/50 that he goes North and then West in Mexico or he goes NE towards the Eastern Gulf Coast. If the reason I give it a 50% chance of heading NE is that if you look at the water vapor loop of the Eastern U.S. you can see the cutoff low left over from Lee is moving West, maybe slightly SW and that COULD open a weakness for Lee to move off to the NE. Too many variables right now to say more than 50% one way or the other.
And if anyone dies because of rip currents, well, shame on you for listening to this guy.
No matter WHO he was or whatever "experience" he has, it's just plain dumb to make comments like this.
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