Nate almost a hurricane; Maria remains disorganized
An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is in Tropical Storm Nate, and has found winds much stronger than the storm's satellite appearance would suggest. At 2:17 pm EDT, the aircraft measured winds at their flight level of 1500 feet of 93 mph, which would ordinarily support upgrading Nate to a Category 1 hurricane. Surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument were about 70 mph, suggesting that Nate is indeed very close to hurricane strength. However, latest visible satellite loops show that if Nate is a hurricane, it's only half of a hurricane. Nate's low-level center is exposed to view, due to northeasterly upper-level winds that are creating a moderate 10 knots of wind shear. This shear is keeping all of Nate's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south side of the center, and the northern half of the storm almost cloud-free. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 140 miles to the northwest of the center of Nate, were just 28 mph at 3:50 pm EDT this afternoon. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of Nate, and this dry air is keeping the northern half of the storm dry.
Nate will meander in the Bay of Campeche for several days, and the computer models are sharply divided on what happens early next week to the storm. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in to the north of the storm, potentially forcing it westwards to a landfall in Mexico. However, our two best-performing models last year, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that a weak trough of low pressure expected to move across the U.S. early next week will be strong enough to turn Nate northwards towards an eventual landfall along the northern Gulf Coast. We will have to wait until the NOAA jet makes its first mission to sample the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico to get a better idea on how probable this northern path might be; their first flight will be tonight, and the data will make it into the 8 pm models runs that will be available first thing Friday morning. As far as intensity goes, the very dry air to Nate's north should begin being less of a problem for it by Friday, when the upper level winds shift more to blow from the southeast, and the shear drops to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. Since the storm is moving very slowly, it will upwell cooler waters from the depths that will slow intensification, though.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Nate.
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria barely survived as a tropical storm today, but is now making a bit of a comeback. Satellite loops show that Maria has been badly ripped up by the 10 - 20 knots of wind shear affecting it. The low-level center has been exposed to view most of the day, and surface arc-shaped clouds have been racing away from the storm to the west this afternoon, indicating that dry air has been getting into Maria's thunderstorms and disrupting the storm. However, the areal coverage and intensity of Maria's thunderstorms have increased a little in the past two hours. Maria is passing close to buoy 41040, which measured sustained winds of 36 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 2:50 pm EDT.
Wind shear is predicted to fall to the low range on Friday as Maria approaches the Lesser Antilles. In addition, as I noted in this morning's post, Maria will be encountering an atmospheric disturbance known as a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that is currently passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands. There is a great deal of upward-moving air in the vicinity of a CCKW, and will help strengthen the updrafts in Maria's thunderstorms, potentially intensifying the storm. None of our models are detailed enough to "see" CCKWs", so we may see more intensification of the storm than the models are calling for. I believe Maria will continue to organize and arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds. The latest run of the GFDL model predicts that Maria will be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon when it moves through the Virgin Islands, and a Category 2 hurricane Sunday night when it moves through the Turks and Caicos Islands. This is on the high end of what is possible, and I think it more likely that Maria will be a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds in the northern Lesser Antilles, 60 - 70 mph winds in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and a Category 1 hurricane in the Turks and Caicos Islands--assuming passage over Puerto Rico and the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic does not significantly disrupt the storm. A lower intensity, as forecast by NHC, is certainly quite possible, as Maria may continue to struggle with the dry air and wind shear besetting it.
The latest computer model runs have been trending more southwards, and the Northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahama Islands are all at high risk of a direct hit by Maria. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have once Maria approaches the U.S. East Coast. Most of the models foresee that Maria will turn north before arriving at Florida, and potentially threaten North Carolina, Bermuda, or Canada. The latest run of the GFDL model, though, brings Maria through the Bahamas to a point just 100 miles southeast of Miami as a hurricane on Tuesday afternoon. While this forecast is an outlier, and it is more likely that Maria will turn north before reaching Florida, it will be another two days before we will have a fair degree of confidence on when Maria will curve to the north.
Lee's rains trigger historic flooding in New York and Pennsylvania
An extreme rainfall event unprecedented in recorded history has hit the Binghamton, New York area, where 7.49" of rain fell yesterday. This is the second year in a row Binghamton has recorded a greater than 1-in-100 year rain event; their previous all-time record was set last September, when 4.68" fell on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010. Binghamton has also already broken its record for rainiest year in its history. Records go back to 1890 in the city. The rain has ended in Binghamton, with this morning's rain bringing the city's total rainfall for the 40-hour event to 9.02". The Susquehanna River at Binghamton has risen to 25.69', its highest level since records began in 1847, and is now spilling over the flood walls protecting the city, according to media reports. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 19' over flood stage, and more than 9' above its record flood crest. Widespread flash flooding is occurring across the entire area, and over 120,000 people have been evacuated from their homes.
Figure 2. Seven-day precipitation amounts from Tropical Storm Lee and its remnants. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.
Figure 3. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton has crested this afternoon at its highest flood height on record, 25.69'. Records at this gauge go back to 1847. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.
Figure 4. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 19' over flood stage, and more than 9' above its previous record flood crest. The river is forecast to crest at 27.2' (green lines are the predictions.) Records at this gage go back to 1930. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.
The extreme rains are due the the remains of Tropical Storm Lee interacting with a stationary front draped along the Eastern U.S. Adding to the potent moisture mix last night was a stream of tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Katia that collided with the stationary front. You don't often see a major city break its all-time 24-hour precipitation record by a 60% margin, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and he can't recall ever seeing it happen before. It's worth noting that the Susquehanna River Binghamton stream gage, which has been in operation since 1847, is due to be shut off in 3 weeks due to budget cuts. Here's the note at the USGS web site:
NOTICE (03/23/2011)--Data collection at this streamgage may be discontinued after October 1, 2011 due to funding reductions from partner agencies. Although historic data will remain accessible, no new data will be collected unless one or more new funding partners are found. Users who are willing to contribute funding to continue operation of this streamgage should contact Rob Breault or Ward Freeman of the USGS New York Water Science Center at 518-285-5658 or dc_ny@usgs.gov.
I'll have an update in the morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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13.6n55.5w, 14.0n57.0w are now the most recent positions
Starting 8Sept_12pmGMT and ending 9Sept_12pmGMT
The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the island blob at 13.92n60.89w-UVF is the endpoint of the straightline projection
on the most recent*previous*mapping connected to its nearest airport.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12mGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 17.3mph(27.9k/h) on a heading of 285.4degrees(WNW)
TS.Maria was headed toward passing 7.8miles(12.5kilometres) south of Dominca ~15hours from now
Copy&paste bqn, pmv, 13.92n60.89w-uvf, 13.0n50.2w-13.1n51.8w, 13.1n51.8w-13.2n53.7w, 13.2n53.7w-13.6n55.5w, 13.6n55.5w-14.0n57.0w, dom, 13.6n55.5w-15.095n61.354w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping (for 9Sept_6amGMT)
* Correcting for the alteration of the endpoint of TropicalCyclone's previous path would also change the endpoint of its travel-speed, heading, and straightline projection...
...in this case, to Martinique rather than to St.Lucia as shown. But I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
USGS Nationwide List of Threatened Streamgages
"The following streamgages have been discontinued or are being considered for discontinuation or for conversion from continuous record discharge to stage-only stations. The primary reason for these actions is the lack of funding to support the continued operation of the streamgages. Funds for these streamgages are from the U.S. Geological Survey and other Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies. For those streamgages that have already been discontinued, extensive efforts were made to find another funding source; however, when no funding was made available the streamgages had to be discontinued. For those streamgages at risk for discontinuation, the current funding source has indicated that it can no longer fund the streamgage. Efforts are currently underway to identify another funding source for the operation of these streamgages; however, if no funding is identified, then these streamgages will have to be discontinued also."
See the whole entry here.
Looks very confident of that turn!
Aussie, that may be the system the nogaps was showing, is that next Tuesday? I was thinking it was something in the nearer timeframe though (today or tomorrow). That's why the blob in the Eastern Gulf got my attention. It could just be another cluster of thunderstorms though.
And the Leeward Islands as well
Does anyone know how much a stream gage costs, how much one could cost, and how much an automated weather station (such as the Wunderground stations - are they mostly Davis weather stations?) cost. Perhaps there can be a more focused effort to bring more wunderground censors on line and perhaps even stream gages... I realize exact amounts of water can not be calculated without measuring hte stream bank but for warning of a flash flood, simply being able to see a dramatic rise in water level would be enough.
Ideas? I'll be posting about this soon on slowwatermovement.blogspot.com
Here is an article you can read.
Operating a basic stream gauge costs around $15,700 per year. Those with advanced measurement tools can cost nearly twice as much. The Geological Survey splits the bill at many gauges with dozens of partners, including state agencies and local governments.
I don't see the article, can you please repost it? Thanks.
As far as tropics are concerned, Nate looking more symmetrical this morning, albeit tiny. Maria is... eh, she is there (not much happening with her), although convection is present today moreso than yesterday. I am really interested to see what pans out path-wise with Maria, as it seems that a more southerly track would be probable, given her current state, but not so sure the NOGAPS is the right solution at this point, unless other models begin to line themselves up with that.
Sorry about that.
here
Prod runs are not more in line withe the Parallel run that would replace it in 10 to 11 days.
Think i saw that on NOGAPS model a couple of days ago had it as a 1010mb going ENE/NE Across florida and up the east coast weakening to 1014mb
i thunk so to looking at that,why the models swap back west then?
nate is still a noteworthy tropical storm, just because it isnt huge and doesnt have deep convection like maria does not mean it is about to die. Comparing the two storms is like comparing a elephant and a dog, the BOC is a favorable environment for small tropical disturbances to form and they can become strong.
I agree it has alot of dry air to deal with, and its nearly stationary movement doesnt help. But given its so small and the heat content in the gulf is so high, it would be foolish to just blow off the storm.
13.6n55.5w, 14.0n57.0w are now the most recent positions
Starting 8Sept_12pmGMT and ending 9Sept_12pmGMT
The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the island blob at 13.92n60.89w-UVF is the endpoint of the straightline projection on the most recent*previous*mapping connected to its nearest airport.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12mGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 17.3mph(27.9k/h) on a heading of 285.4degrees(WNW)
TS.Maria was headed toward passing 7.8miles(12.5kilometres) south of Dominca ~15hours from now
Copy&paste bqn, pmv, 13.92n60.89w-uvf, 13.0n50.2w-13.1n51.8w, 13.1n51.8w-13.2n53.7w, 13.2n53.7w-13.6n55.5w, 13.6n55.5w-14.0n57.0w, dom, 13.6n55.5w-15.095n61.354w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping (for 9Sept_6amGMT)
* Correcting for the alteration of the endpoint of TropicalCyclone's previous path would also change the endpoint of its travel-speed, heading, and straightline projection... in this case, to Martinique rather than to St.Lucia as shown.
But I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Well, you have to realize what the govt pays for these is outrageously over priced. Likely, they gave a contract to some company in DC connected with an insider to design and build custom ones for them. This happens all the time unfortunately. I can think of numerous ways these could be built cheap using the latest off-the-shelf technology (am an embedded system engineer with 20+ yrs experience.) PM if you want to collaborate and I will send my direct email.
Ok, I visited your blog and see what they pay to maintain these. OMG. Outrageous. I've seen them on rivers in N FL and it's old tech with too many large expensive mechanical components. So I can see it being high, but this is ridiculously high. ~$17K per year to maintain a gauge? WTF? Dummies are getting ripped off. Private sector could do this for probably less than $2k. Better yet, make it volunteer and give a tax break or something.
Viewing: 1951 - 1977
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