Nate almost a hurricane; Maria remains disorganized
An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is in Tropical Storm Nate, and has found winds much stronger than the storm's satellite appearance would suggest. At 2:17 pm EDT, the aircraft measured winds at their flight level of 1500 feet of 93 mph, which would ordinarily support upgrading Nate to a Category 1 hurricane. Surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument were about 70 mph, suggesting that Nate is indeed very close to hurricane strength. However, latest visible satellite loops show that if Nate is a hurricane, it's only half of a hurricane. Nate's low-level center is exposed to view, due to northeasterly upper-level winds that are creating a moderate 10 knots of wind shear. This shear is keeping all of Nate's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south side of the center, and the northern half of the storm almost cloud-free. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 140 miles to the northwest of the center of Nate, were just 28 mph at 3:50 pm EDT this afternoon. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of Nate, and this dry air is keeping the northern half of the storm dry.
Nate will meander in the Bay of Campeche for several days, and the computer models are sharply divided on what happens early next week to the storm. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in to the north of the storm, potentially forcing it westwards to a landfall in Mexico. However, our two best-performing models last year, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that a weak trough of low pressure expected to move across the U.S. early next week will be strong enough to turn Nate northwards towards an eventual landfall along the northern Gulf Coast. We will have to wait until the NOAA jet makes its first mission to sample the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico to get a better idea on how probable this northern path might be; their first flight will be tonight, and the data will make it into the 8 pm models runs that will be available first thing Friday morning. As far as intensity goes, the very dry air to Nate's north should begin being less of a problem for it by Friday, when the upper level winds shift more to blow from the southeast, and the shear drops to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. Since the storm is moving very slowly, it will upwell cooler waters from the depths that will slow intensification, though.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Nate.
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria barely survived as a tropical storm today, but is now making a bit of a comeback. Satellite loops show that Maria has been badly ripped up by the 10 - 20 knots of wind shear affecting it. The low-level center has been exposed to view most of the day, and surface arc-shaped clouds have been racing away from the storm to the west this afternoon, indicating that dry air has been getting into Maria's thunderstorms and disrupting the storm. However, the areal coverage and intensity of Maria's thunderstorms have increased a little in the past two hours. Maria is passing close to buoy 41040, which measured sustained winds of 36 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 2:50 pm EDT.
Wind shear is predicted to fall to the low range on Friday as Maria approaches the Lesser Antilles. In addition, as I noted in this morning's post, Maria will be encountering an atmospheric disturbance known as a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that is currently passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands. There is a great deal of upward-moving air in the vicinity of a CCKW, and will help strengthen the updrafts in Maria's thunderstorms, potentially intensifying the storm. None of our models are detailed enough to "see" CCKWs", so we may see more intensification of the storm than the models are calling for. I believe Maria will continue to organize and arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds. The latest run of the GFDL model predicts that Maria will be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon when it moves through the Virgin Islands, and a Category 2 hurricane Sunday night when it moves through the Turks and Caicos Islands. This is on the high end of what is possible, and I think it more likely that Maria will be a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds in the northern Lesser Antilles, 60 - 70 mph winds in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and a Category 1 hurricane in the Turks and Caicos Islands--assuming passage over Puerto Rico and the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic does not significantly disrupt the storm. A lower intensity, as forecast by NHC, is certainly quite possible, as Maria may continue to struggle with the dry air and wind shear besetting it.
The latest computer model runs have been trending more southwards, and the Northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahama Islands are all at high risk of a direct hit by Maria. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have once Maria approaches the U.S. East Coast. Most of the models foresee that Maria will turn north before arriving at Florida, and potentially threaten North Carolina, Bermuda, or Canada. The latest run of the GFDL model, though, brings Maria through the Bahamas to a point just 100 miles southeast of Miami as a hurricane on Tuesday afternoon. While this forecast is an outlier, and it is more likely that Maria will turn north before reaching Florida, it will be another two days before we will have a fair degree of confidence on when Maria will curve to the north.
Lee's rains trigger historic flooding in New York and Pennsylvania
An extreme rainfall event unprecedented in recorded history has hit the Binghamton, New York area, where 7.49" of rain fell yesterday. This is the second year in a row Binghamton has recorded a greater than 1-in-100 year rain event; their previous all-time record was set last September, when 4.68" fell on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010. Binghamton has also already broken its record for rainiest year in its history. Records go back to 1890 in the city. The rain has ended in Binghamton, with this morning's rain bringing the city's total rainfall for the 40-hour event to 9.02". The Susquehanna River at Binghamton has risen to 25.69', its highest level since records began in 1847, and is now spilling over the flood walls protecting the city, according to media reports. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 19' over flood stage, and more than 9' above its record flood crest. Widespread flash flooding is occurring across the entire area, and over 120,000 people have been evacuated from their homes.
Figure 2. Seven-day precipitation amounts from Tropical Storm Lee and its remnants. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.
Figure 3. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton has crested this afternoon at its highest flood height on record, 25.69'. Records at this gauge go back to 1847. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.
Figure 4. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 19' over flood stage, and more than 9' above its previous record flood crest. The river is forecast to crest at 27.2' (green lines are the predictions.) Records at this gage go back to 1930. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.
The extreme rains are due the the remains of Tropical Storm Lee interacting with a stationary front draped along the Eastern U.S. Adding to the potent moisture mix last night was a stream of tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Katia that collided with the stationary front. You don't often see a major city break its all-time 24-hour precipitation record by a 60% margin, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and he can't recall ever seeing it happen before. It's worth noting that the Susquehanna River Binghamton stream gage, which has been in operation since 1847, is due to be shut off in 3 weeks due to budget cuts. Here's the note at the USGS web site:
NOTICE (03/23/2011)--Data collection at this streamgage may be discontinued after October 1, 2011 due to funding reductions from partner agencies. Although historic data will remain accessible, no new data will be collected unless one or more new funding partners are found. Users who are willing to contribute funding to continue operation of this streamgage should contact Rob Breault or Ward Freeman of the USGS New York Water Science Center at 518-285-5658 or dc_ny@usgs.gov.
I'll have an update in the morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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No problem. Just had a lot of practice doing it myself.
A. YES
B. NO
Will it go into Texas and help alleviate the sever drought and if so i hope Texas gets rain but i don't wish them a hurricane just rain so it could help the wildfires
ESto luce feo, nos puede dar una sorpresa a ultima hora...
Looks like a posible last hour surprise storm...
Hay que prepararse.....!!!
It's always better to be overprepared...
In which island are you?
13.5N
mm okay...
I'm more likely to get rain from Nate than Texas.
At present .. there is not one single Model (early or late) that even hints at any track, before or after landfall into Texas.
the keyword there is "present"
there is more support for it to hit NOLA (AP16 & LBAR) then there is for texas.
BIG
Sleep well...
Nite scooster!
We need only rain.
(Sorry, my English is not good)
(Google Translate)
32.9n70.2w, 33.9n70.1w, 35.6n69.4w are now the most recent positions
Starting 8Sept_12amGMT and ending 9Sept_12amGMT
The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneKatia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the coastline dumbbell at BHB-44.356n68.026w is the endpoint of the most
recent previous straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
H.Katia's travel-speed was 20.7mph(33.2k/h) on a heading of 18.6degrees(NNE)
H.Katia was headed toward passage over ShagHarbour,NovaScotia ~23&1/2.hours from now
Copy&paste 44.356n68.026w-bhb, 30.3n69.9w-31.4n70.2w, 31.4n70.2w-32.9n70.2w, 32.9n70.2w-33.9n70.1w, 33.9n70.1w-35.6n69.4w, yqi, 33.9n70.1w-43.481n65.656w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping (for 8Sept_6pmGMT)
Hey, PI, just a bit of trivia. On Long Island and New England they often put vinegar on their french fries instead of ketchup.
I've learned that I'm totally unprepared for an emergency. Zero prep. you don't think it's going to happen to YOU so you go around living life.
Dumb move.
No way Dude!!
My so called "smart phone" is always garbling my messages too.
They do that at a place called Bar Louie down here.
Just north of you a bit...Just think how it'll be when an 8.0 rolls through here.. could happen anytime.. so get prepared tomorrow yes?
They put malt vinegar on the "chips" and fish in Britain....it's one of the few edible dishes they serve.
Malt vinegar on hot, salty fries. Yum.
It's a British thing.
I'm not supposed to eat anything right before going to bed... you guys are NOT HELPING!!
Jinx!!
This may sound silly But, Why is the high over TX stuck There? I thought it showed it moved off for awhile But then I guess It came back? IS this just nature or A particular reason for it? I've watched here a long time but dont understand the maps much. I string beads for a living... More "OOOh that map is pretty..." But you guys explain things very well. Oh neat, Why The High, good song title or poem, Duuu...
I hardly see you on here anymore. Don't lurk,post something. If you say something stupid, you will just be like the rest of us.
I'm a geology student - and I always though that "the big one" would happen and I was always nervous until I took classes. Apparently, In san Diego, we will not be expecting anything over a 6.5 or 7. It may feel huge but it won't be anything what "older rock" is going to do.
Not that that is going to keep me from figuring out my emergency kit - b/c even that big of a quake will knock out power possibly and make my food source limted.
We had no power - means you can't go to the store, you can't get ice, you can't ger money. No where in So Cal from San Clemente to Tijuana.
Kid was at work and asked if were going to stay at a hotel (it was HOT). Had to laugh at my princess. There was no power almost to La
I heard that it is an old custom to kill any fungus that was on the old potatoes. I do know if there is any validity to it, but we also dipped raw claims and cooked claims in vinegar instead of lemon.
Why were you looking at ME when you said that???
MMM I'm Native American & Love Vinegar on fries, fish, even potato chips. Dont put it on fry bread though. Yuk!
All Sillyness aside, Thank all of you for the great info this evening. Although I'm really disheartened over TX & OK drought at least I can sort of see why things are happeneing. Something has got to give. Cant hardly watch AG report In the AM. Its just dismal!
Canadians put vinegar on chips (french fries); the Dutch put mayonnaise; in Belize, I was given lime juice; and in the USA, kechup, only kechup (hate the stuff!).
yeah see that is strange, we have had countless rain events bigger than 1.3, in fact I had 1.62 on Monday, and 2.89 on Tuesday, as a more recent example. St. Petersburg had nearly 6 in on Tuesday.
Well, I'm not sure how rainfall was last year in your area, but rainfall last year around here and the situation reminds me of how it was last year here. Always high moisture and instability but the rain always fell short of forecast or what it should have been. It seemed almost unreal how little rain there could be sometimes, for example, we would have PWAT at like 2.3 with cool mid level temps, but convection still wouldn't build to more than some scattered activity.
This year, we pretty much always get more rain than forecast. We had days days where widespread 2 to 4 has fallen with isolated higher totals but they had only a 60% or 70% chance in the forecast. Forecasters never forecast above 70% here for some reason.
I makes me wonder i MET's here use there forecast numbers as based on "% chance of heavy rain of 1 inch or more" rather than chance of precip. Because % chance of precip means probability of getting 0.01 inches or greater. But many days they know almost everyone well get at least 1 to 2 inches more, lol
And this just adds to my confusion.
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