Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

No change to Nate; Maria fizzles; Katia headed to Britain

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:47 PM GMT on September 10, 2011

+19

Tropical Storm Nate in Mexico's Bay of Campeche continues to have trouble intensifying. Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate has a large, cloud-filled center, and the storm is probably pulling in dry air to its north into its center. Nate is also likely having trouble with all the cool waters it has stirred to the surface. Assuming Nate is able to close off its center from the dry air, it would take the storm at least a day to tighten up its rather large center, form a solid eyewall, and reach hurricane intensity. Nate doesn't have enough time before landfall for that to happen, and it is unlikely Nate will ever become a hurricane. The latest wind probability forecast form NHC gives Nate a 13% chance of reaching hurricane strength on Sunday. Latest radar imagery from Alvarado, Mexico shows heavy rains from Nate are affecting the coast near Veracruz, and heavy rains of 4 - 6 inches will be the main threat from Nate.

Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nate taken at 12:45 pm EDT Friday, September 9, 2011. At the time, Nate was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Nate is a small storm, and is not likely to bring significant rains to Texas; only extreme South Texas near Brownsville could see an inch or so of rain on Sunday from an outer spiral band of Nate. Our latest wundermap wind forecast map from the European Center model, with the fire layer turned on, shows that Nate's wind field on Saturday and Sunday will not be large enough to fan the fires burning in Texas.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria doesn't look much like a tropical storm--on the latest satellite imagery it looks like a squashed question mark instead of a spiral. The surface circulation center is very poorly defined, and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots has really done the Lesser Antilles Islands a big favor by ripping up Maria. It is doubtful this storm will generate any sustained winds of tropical storm force in the islands, and it is a 50/50 proposition that Maria will degenerate into a tropical disturbance and become ex-Tropical Storm Maria later today. Martinique radar shows heavy rains from Maria are mostly east of the islands, and the thunderstorms are not well-organized into spiral bands. The wind shear affecting Maria will probably last through Sunday. By Monday, wind shear is predicted to fall enough so that Maria could potentially organize again. However, the storm is expected to be far from land when that occurs. Bermuda could see a few rain showers from Maria on Wednesday, and Maria may be a threat to southeast Newfoundland late next week.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria shows the the storm looks like a squashed question mark?

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada this morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 52 mph into the open Atlantic. With water temperatures 19°C (66°F) underneath it, Katia has lost its tropical characteristics, and has transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia will continue east-northeastward towards Europe, and on Monday, the storm will pass very close to northern British Isles. The offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland can expect storm-force winds of 50 - 60 mph on Monday as Katia roars past to the north. The storm will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.

Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and UKMET models predict the possible development of a tropical wave 6 - 7 days from now off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update by early Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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1001. JLPR2 4:39 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting NCHurricane2009: Whoopsy daisy...looks like then they'll need a last minute TS warning? I've seen the NHC cancel warings for systems that open into a wave before reaching the islands...but to drop warnings before the storm dissipates is unheard of to me....what a year of weirdness...almost as weird as declaring TS Jose... LOL! Yeah, if current trend holds and TS winds expand more then warnings should go up again. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1002. JLPR2 4:40 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
HHs are taking a dive south, probably going to check the LLC again. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1004. NCHurricane2009 4:42 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting JLPR2: LOL! Yeah, if current trend holds and TS winds expand more then warnings should go up again. Well...if they were ready to raise warnings for Jose in Bermuda...then they ought to get those warnings back for the NE Antilles for Maria... I keep bringing up Jose...but I found that storm super annoying for some reason.....LOL Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

1006. BahaHurican 4:42 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: Monomania (mah'-nuh--may'-nee-uh) - *noun* (New Latin) 1. Pathological obsession with one idea or subject. 2. Intent concentration on or exaggerated enthusiasm for a single subject or idea. eXAMPLE, dR. Masters' bloggers.... lol... Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588

1010. pcola57 4:44 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican: eXAMPLE, dR. Masters' bloggers.... lol... LOL..LOL!! Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 3814

1012. TampaSpin 4:44 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican: eXAMPLE, dR. Masters' bloggers.... lol... BAD, BAD, BAD...........LOL Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1013. Skyepony (Mod) 4:46 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
I'd like to commemorate the Delta II last flight today with it's most spectacular failure, one of the two of 147 launches that failed. I remember being urged to stay indoors as Tom Terry tracked the explosion cloud on radar. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29244

1014. HuracanTaino 4:46 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting JLPR2: LOL! Yeah, if current trend holds and TS winds expand more then warnings should go up again. Well, what amazed me is the fact that is the first time that I've seen a COC of name storm pass over or less than 10 miles from an Island and still that island is not having at least a tropical storm watch Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

1016. NCHurricane2009 4:46 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican: eXAMPLE, dR. Masters' bloggers.... lol... Hey...that includes me!...LOL Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

1017. JLPR2 4:48 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
And there she is. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1019. NCHurricane2009 4:48 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting Skyepony: I'd like to commemorate the Delta II last flight today with it's most spectacular failure, one of the two of 147 launches that failed. I remember being urged to stay indoors as Tom Terry tracked the explosion cloud on radar. Well...I was rooting earlier comments ago wishing I could live close enough to see launches like that...but now that you mention this story I changed my mind.... Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

1020. JLPR2 4:49 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting HuracanTaino: Well, what amazed me is the fact that is the first time that I've seen a COC of name storm pass over or less than 10 miles from an Island and still that island is not having at least a tropical storm watch I remembered Olga passed over us as a STS and we never got a warning, just high winds advisories. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1021. HuracanTaino 4:50 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting NCHurricane2009: Well...if they were ready to raise warnings for Jose in Bermuda...then they ought to get those warnings back for the NE Antilles for Maria... I keep bringing up Jose...but I found that storm super annoying for some reason.....LOL I don't blame you I still have to laugh when they made me swallow Jose as an storm,So funny,,.according to them it has the characteristic of an storm, but some thunders storms also have TS winds and they are'nt name. Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

1022. LostTomorrows 4:50 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
I think Maria has finally found her niche... never mind trying to solve that problem, she's got so many issues that she can barely solve herself. And Nate looks like he will be a hurricane in the morning advisory. Both of these storms can't make up their minds. However, Nate looks as though he's going to pull a Stan where Karl hit... which could be rather catastrophic. Maria is looking as if she'll indeed be a hurricane. This is a testament to how hostile the Atlantic Basin's been in the upper levels this year... and just how strong Maria and Katia really could've been/could be. Irene was a category one with a pressure of a srong category 3, too. Those are some persistent females. Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 520

1023. pcola57 4:51 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting Skyepony: I'd like to commemorate the Delta II last flight today with it's most spectacular failure, one of the two of 147 launches that failed. I remember being urged to stay indoors as Tom Terry tracked the explosion cloud on radar. All I can say is WOW!! Thats quite an expensive fireworks display!! Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 3814

1024. NCHurricane2009 4:52 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting JLPR2: I remembered Olga passed over us as a STS and we never got a warning, just high winds advisories. Are there at least ANY high wind warnings for Maria right now? PS...Olga was a subtropical cyclone and expected to stay one in your area I belive...and they issue gale (high wind) warnings for subtropical cyclones I believe.... Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

1026. 3211976 4:53 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Is it raining where you are? The PR radar doesn't show rain at your location. Quoting CaribBoy: I'm in St Martin Island! (sorry my quote button doesn't work!) Looks like gusts aren't far from reaching ts force. Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 7

1027. JLPR2 4:53 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
And the plot thickens, instead of weakening like they were last pass, winds are getting stronger as they close in on the circulation. Lets see just were the winds weaken. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1028. ecflweatherfan 4:54 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting Skyepony: I'd like to commemorate the Delta II last flight today with it's most spectacular failure, one of the two of 147 launches that failed. I remember being urged to stay indoors as Tom Terry tracked the explosion cloud on radar. I was in high school when that happened... they put classes on lockdown until the toxic plume passed to the south (winds were NNE that day). I remember that one all to well. It was a bad time for them as it was just before or just after, they had another one explode right after launch as well. Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 947

1029. TampaSpin 4:55 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Goodnite......SOME BLOG TONITE! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1030. NCHurricane2009 4:55 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting JLPR2: And the plot thickens, instead of weakening like they were last pass, winds are getting stronger as they close in on the circulation. Lets see just were the winds weaken. Strange...wouldn't expect a center reformation to the south or strengthening with convection sheared off to the northeast...yet another surprise for the year.... This is why you don't remove warnings when a tropical cyclone passes so close...wait till it passes to remove the warnings.... Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

1031. HuracanTaino 4:56 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting JLPR2: And there she is. So close to my house, feels strange after so many years to see a tropical storm upon us and not having watches or warning and not intermediate advisories, weird to say the least. Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

1032. Skyepony (Mod) 4:58 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Models are doing terrible with Maria..not seeing much skill or a model with a clue. Quoting NCHurricane2009: Well...I was rooting earlier comments ago wishing I could live close enough to see launches like that...but now that you mention this story I changed my mind.... I do prefer WNC to here 7 months out of the year. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29244

1033. HuracanTaino 5:01 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting JLPR2: I remembered Olga passed over us as a STS and we never got a warning, just high winds advisories. Yes i do too, but that was December 3, not very uncommon climatologycally speaking, this in Sept. 10 peak of the season, moving only at 10mph, anything could happen, is Saturday night, most kids are celebrating there is not storm, parting in Pubs all around the islands, specially in eastern Puerto Rico... Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

1034. NCHurricane2009 5:01 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting HuracanTaino: I don't blame you I still have to laugh when they made me swallow Jose as an storm,So funny,,.according to them it has the characteristic of an storm, but some thunders storms also have TS winds and they are'nt name. Jose...the biggest "what the..." moment of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.... Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

1035. JLPR2 5:02 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Just went outside for a moment and noticed a "creepy atmosphere", the only sound I heard were leaves moving in a slight breeze. Crickets seem too quiet, noticed the same thing the day before Irene. Probably feeling the closeness of Maria. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1036. BahaHurican 5:02 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting FLdewey: Absolutely. In addition to 341 brothers I didn't personally know, I lost 2 firefighters I was friends with and went to school with. Those were 2 of the most difficult funerals I've ever been to in my life. Politics aside I am thankful for the sacrifice the first responders made on that day in an effort to save lives. Kind of reminds you how insignificant bickering with people you don't really know on the internet is. ;-) Dewey, I plussed this comment... and now I think I have a better grasp on ur humour.... Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588

1037. AussieStorm 5:03 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting P451: LOL Nate. No convection...still. Yet they're pushing 65mph winds with the threat to upgrade to Hurricane for this system? Please.... This says it all. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13272

1038. Skyepony (Mod) 5:03 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Models are doing much better with Nate compared to Maria. MRFO has overtaken Ukmet & GFDL for the lead. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29244

1040. HuracanTaino 5:11 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting JLPR2: Just went outside for a moment and noticed a "creepy atmosphere", the only sound I heard were leaves moving in a slight breeze. Crickets seem too quiet, noticed the same thing the day before Irene. Probably feeling the closeness of Maria. Yes very typical,even the Coquis are quiet tonight ,and those clouds are speeding from to the SE...in my area... Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

1041. MississippiWx 5:13 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Haven't been on much today, but the NHC has the wrong area hatched in the Eastern Atlantic... Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8507

1043. HuracandelCaribe 5:18 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Probably if it keeps firing Storms for another 12 HR they will start to officially monitoring it. Quoting MississippiWx: Haven't been on much today, but the NHC has the wrong area hatched in the Eastern Atlantic... Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 169

1045. HuracanTaino 5:21 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Maria is a hurricane ,,can't believe it Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

1046. pcola57 5:23 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting Skyepony: Models are doing much better with Nate compared to Maria. MRFO has overtaken Ukmet & GFDL for the lead. Great Link...Thanks Skyepony.. Quoting tomas5tex: You must remember who the president is.....You really think he would do that....You have to have a back bone to have the guts to do that....He doesn't. Please take this discussion to another room..We here would appreciate it.. Quoting HuracanTaino: Yes very typical,even the Coquis are quiet tonight ,and those clouds are speeding from to the SE...in my area... Ok...I gotta ask..what are Coquis HurrcanTaino? Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 3814

1047. swflurker 5:24 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
This a weather chat based website. Take your personal issues elsewhere!!! Thanks Member Since: August 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 88

1049. HuracanTaino 5:25 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
must be an error, check the fcst point, it says cat1 Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

1050. HuracandelCaribe 5:25 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Where did you find that info? Quoting HuracanTaino: Maria is a hurricane ,,can't believe it Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 169

1051. PrivateIdaho 5:27 AM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting pcola57: Great Link...Thanks Skyepony.. Please take this discussion to another room..We here would appreciate it.. Ok...I gotta ask..what are Coquis HurrcanTaino? P.R. frogs. Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

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