No change to Nate; Maria fizzles; Katia headed to Britain
Tropical Storm Nate in Mexico's Bay of Campeche continues to have trouble intensifying. Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate has a large, cloud-filled center, and the storm is probably pulling in dry air to its north into its center. Nate is also likely having trouble with all the cool waters it has stirred to the surface. Assuming Nate is able to close off its center from the dry air, it would take the storm at least a day to tighten up its rather large center, form a solid eyewall, and reach hurricane intensity. Nate doesn't have enough time before landfall for that to happen, and it is unlikely Nate will ever become a hurricane. The latest wind probability forecast form NHC gives Nate a 13% chance of reaching hurricane strength on Sunday. Latest radar imagery from Alvarado, Mexico shows heavy rains from Nate are affecting the coast near Veracruz, and heavy rains of 4 - 6 inches will be the main threat from Nate.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nate taken at 12:45 pm EDT Friday, September 9, 2011. At the time, Nate was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Nate is a small storm, and is not likely to bring significant rains to Texas; only extreme South Texas near Brownsville could see an inch or so of rain on Sunday from an outer spiral band of Nate. Our latest wundermap wind forecast map from the European Center model, with the fire layer turned on, shows that Nate's wind field on Saturday and Sunday will not be large enough to fan the fires burning in Texas.
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria doesn't look much like a tropical storm--on the latest satellite imagery it looks like a squashed question mark instead of a spiral. The surface circulation center is very poorly defined, and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots has really done the Lesser Antilles Islands a big favor by ripping up Maria. It is doubtful this storm will generate any sustained winds of tropical storm force in the islands, and it is a 50/50 proposition that Maria will degenerate into a tropical disturbance and become ex-Tropical Storm Maria later today. Martinique radar shows heavy rains from Maria are mostly east of the islands, and the thunderstorms are not well-organized into spiral bands. The wind shear affecting Maria will probably last through Sunday. By Monday, wind shear is predicted to fall enough so that Maria could potentially organize again. However, the storm is expected to be far from land when that occurs. Bermuda could see a few rain showers from Maria on Wednesday, and Maria may be a threat to southeast Newfoundland late next week.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria shows the the storm looks like a squashed question mark?
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada this morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 52 mph into the open Atlantic. With water temperatures 19°C (66°F) underneath it, Katia has lost its tropical characteristics, and has transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia will continue east-northeastward towards Europe, and on Monday, the storm will pass very close to northern British Isles. The offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland can expect storm-force winds of 50 - 60 mph on Monday as Katia roars past to the north. The storm will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.
Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and UKMET models predict the possible development of a tropical wave 6 - 7 days from now off the coast of Africa.
I'll have an update by early Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
self imposed ban or admin imposed ban?
You missed a whole lot of bickering and second calling the NHC, oh, wait, that happens here everyday, so I guess you missed nothing.
18.0n62.6w, 18.6n63.3w, 19.2n64.1w are now the most recent positions.
16.9n61.2w, 17.5n62.0w, 18.0n62.6w, 18.6n63.3w, 19.2n64.1w over the past 24hours
Starting 10Sept_12pmGMT and ending 11Sept_12pmGMT
The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the coastline blob at 31.447n81.230w-08ga is the endpoint of the (freshly*recalculated) most
recent previous straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 11.2mph(18k/h) on a heading of 308.4degrees(NW)
TS.Maria was headed toward passage over PonteVedraBeach,Florida ~4days19hours from now.
Copy&paste gls, 31.447n81.230w-08ga, 16.9n61.2w-17.5n62.0w, 17.5n62.0w-18.0n62.6w, 18.0n62.6w-18.6n63.3w, 18.0n62.6w-31.447n81.230w, 08ga, 18.6n63.3w-19.2n64.1w, fd48, 18.6n63.3w-30.136n81.349w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
(And to get a look at the freshly recalculated previous straightline projection... as well as to get an idea why only the most recent previous endpoint is posted).
The previous mapping (for 10Sept_12pmGMT yesterday).
Decided to take a break in the mapping until NHC/ATCF figured out where the heck Maria actually was within a tenth-or-so degrees. Re-evaluating&altering previous coordinates by a distance of 0.64degrees(0.5n&0.4w from 15.5n59.8w to 16.0n60.2w) made their associated headings, travel-speeds, and straightline projections totally irrelevant.
* The change in previous coordinates made blog1925page23comment1114 irrelevant. And since this is a new mapping after 24hours without...
self imposed ban or admin imposed ban?
whats this say i could not get on the hole blogs
Maria almost died, and has now been reborn. lol
lol
Just messin' witcha...
Just by a different group of pple.... isn't there some Aesop's fable about the two men and the donkey?
wow cool so how many RIPS did you give here toomake here come back too life
Welcome back, Taz
I didn't say RIP. But I'm pretty sure she died once. So she's a zombie.
thanks
there a storm name i like too see zombie.
Not a big fan of pointless gestures by people sitting in front of their computers, or filling up the blog with this topic. There are literally hundreds of online sites for 9/11 discussion.
Hi Taz..What model did you get?? Acer's are sweet... Do you have the broadband speed to take advantage of it?
yup today is 9-11-11 wish we sould nevere for get
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 11
Location: 19.0°N 64.6°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
That's harsh.....
Hey Moldy.. I have found this blog to be educational on so many 'levels'.... Since you've been lurking I'm sure you know what I mean ;)
hi i got the Acer 770Z5-4623
it has 4GB RAM 640GB hard drive window 7-SP 1 with IE 9 and window live 2011 and yes i have DSL vary fast my downlode speed is 317kt my core is intel core B940 processor 2.0GHz.2M L3 Cache and a 17.3" HD + LED LCD and it has a DVD- super multi DL drive
oh and my window index is 5.1
sunny day 87 temp NO Rain just another suumer day
San juan PR
LONGER TERM MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT.
You are correct.
yes and NHC hinting that the track may have to be moved even more west for the next couple of days
WTNT34 KNHC 111516
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011
CORRECTED SPELLING OF MARIA IN HEADLINE
...CENTER OF MARIA PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...STRONG WINDS REMAIN WELL NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...
How are you liking the Acre?
A Nazi zombie? if so imam have to hit the box
Built mine from scratch -
P4 Quad-core 2.4 ghz overclocked to 2.7
8800 gTX
750 watt PSU
steelseries siberia headphones (best gaming headphones out there)
24" widescreen w/ 2ms refresh, reso 1920x1080
and my fav: Comcast Ultra 50 - have to ask for it, for me, its ~62 mbps download and 12 mbps upload
**making this weather related**
Maria looks really nice on sat, and even better on my bangin' screen
understands. she is just so shallow
Don't let the door hit ya.
Besides Maria there is nothing to talk about.
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MARIA.
Shucks... thought we were done with this....
Also I note the pressure is 1007, up from 1005 earlier.
thanks
You're welcome to take a break from commenting on the blog today if you wish (a not uncommon occurrence considering how few posts you have). This is the community people here know, not some unknown online site. For many, this place is their "online friends" where they can speak of what is on their mind during certain occasions. There are a multitude of topics discussed here at various times of the year. I much prefer a "pointless gesture" to an arrogant and lame post of what one feels should be posted on this blog.
Sweet! I am stuck with my Dell 1501. Can't wait until I can afford something newer.
yes i hope the good Dr will mention this day when he updates
My avatar tells the story.
~ 9/11/01 ~ NEVER FORGET
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