No change to Nate; Maria fizzles; Katia headed to Britain
Tropical Storm Nate in Mexico's Bay of Campeche continues to have trouble intensifying. Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate has a large, cloud-filled center, and the storm is probably pulling in dry air to its north into its center. Nate is also likely having trouble with all the cool waters it has stirred to the surface. Assuming Nate is able to close off its center from the dry air, it would take the storm at least a day to tighten up its rather large center, form a solid eyewall, and reach hurricane intensity. Nate doesn't have enough time before landfall for that to happen, and it is unlikely Nate will ever become a hurricane. The latest wind probability forecast form NHC gives Nate a 13% chance of reaching hurricane strength on Sunday. Latest radar imagery from Alvarado, Mexico shows heavy rains from Nate are affecting the coast near Veracruz, and heavy rains of 4 - 6 inches will be the main threat from Nate.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nate taken at 12:45 pm EDT Friday, September 9, 2011. At the time, Nate was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Nate is a small storm, and is not likely to bring significant rains to Texas; only extreme South Texas near Brownsville could see an inch or so of rain on Sunday from an outer spiral band of Nate. Our latest wundermap wind forecast map from the European Center model, with the fire layer turned on, shows that Nate's wind field on Saturday and Sunday will not be large enough to fan the fires burning in Texas.
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria doesn't look much like a tropical storm--on the latest satellite imagery it looks like a squashed question mark instead of a spiral. The surface circulation center is very poorly defined, and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots has really done the Lesser Antilles Islands a big favor by ripping up Maria. It is doubtful this storm will generate any sustained winds of tropical storm force in the islands, and it is a 50/50 proposition that Maria will degenerate into a tropical disturbance and become ex-Tropical Storm Maria later today. Martinique radar shows heavy rains from Maria are mostly east of the islands, and the thunderstorms are not well-organized into spiral bands. The wind shear affecting Maria will probably last through Sunday. By Monday, wind shear is predicted to fall enough so that Maria could potentially organize again. However, the storm is expected to be far from land when that occurs. Bermuda could see a few rain showers from Maria on Wednesday, and Maria may be a threat to southeast Newfoundland late next week.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria shows the the storm looks like a squashed question mark?
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada this morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 52 mph into the open Atlantic. With water temperatures 19°C (66°F) underneath it, Katia has lost its tropical characteristics, and has transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia will continue east-northeastward towards Europe, and on Monday, the storm will pass very close to northern British Isles. The offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland can expect storm-force winds of 50 - 60 mph on Monday as Katia roars past to the north. The storm will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.
Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and UKMET models predict the possible development of a tropical wave 6 - 7 days from now off the coast of Africa.
I'll have an update by early Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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lol, I was playing. Keep posting away Levi.
Even with La Nina now entrenched in the Pacific?
This is Africa:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/ IR039/BW/FULLDISC/index.htm
Supports much more troughiness in the Atlantic which sucks up everything, though can give us some brief trough splits systems.
OK, if I was wrong, please tell me what I AM looking at.
I am an amateur at this and your "Aha, see what's going on here?" comment warranted a response.
So be a good un and tell me what I'm missing. Cheers!
Exactly...And what happens to the storms that form in the Caribbean Sea, and are picked up by a trough?
Well, thank Heavens there isn't a tropical wave at 82W in the carib.. oh, wait there is.
Either way, I disagree highly with the sentences I bolded.
It's not that, the models show just two storms in the next 15 days, and with La Nina, the troughs will be stronger, and storms won't survive as long with trough picking them up easy.
Sorry, trying to post a link. Seems to work this way.
Good point, I GET IT! ;)
About two weeks before it switches to positive?
Yes, we are in La Niña. No, the atmosphere has not transferred to La Niña yet. Going by the atmosphere, we are still in a Neutral pattern, and it will take us a few months to transition.
Its not like a switch -- The light doesn't change once you flip it.
Calm down, we see you.
Except 2005 ;)
I can't believe there aren't any other Texans on the blog today.... here we have a real good shot at another
Carla but the blog is too hung up in Maria semantics to notice.
Yes, without that high situated over Texas/Mexico, Don and Lee would have likely went into Texas.
Yep.
Your quote button not working or something? lol.
LOL I see you.
Yep
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 10 2011
...CENTER OF MARIA PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
...STRONG WINDS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 62.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM ESE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Don hit TX, lol...
Lee would've hit though
We could see something like this even though Charley was in Aug. There was a trough setup across the GOM at the time.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 10 2011
MARIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. THE
CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLEW THROUGH
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT JUST AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FOUND WINDS TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY OF
40 KT. GLOBAL MODEL AND SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST OF MARIA WEAKENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN FOR
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT WEAKEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS MUCH AND KEEPS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS
NO CHANGE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME
THE NHC FORECAST INDICATES SOME STRENGTHENING...BUT IT REMAINS NEAR
THE LOW END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM
MODEL.
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS MARIA
IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE SOME SPEED
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ECMWF MOVING A WEAKER MARIA
MORE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 17.9N 62.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 19.0N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 20.6N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 21.9N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 22.9N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 25.5N 70.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 30.0N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 37.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Well, I meant Don would have traveled farther north and not dissipated as fast as it did, lol.
Oh, my bad. It was in relation to my previous posts talking about development in the Caribbean, and now the 12z Euro shows low pressure in the western Caribbean at Day 10. That was the "aha".
Hate using it, Quote button doesn't work well with Enternet explorer
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
2100 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM TUXPAN
TO VERACRUZ.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM SOUTH OF
VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM TUXPAN TO VERACRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO NORTH OF TUXPAN
* MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO NORTH OF TUXPAN
* MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 94.6W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
Could you say the same thing about any of the TCs in the Atlantic? If the high had not been present, would they have moved further West, and possible not recurved to the North?
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FROM TUXPAN TO VERACRUZ MEXICO...
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 94.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
No, I doubt anything would have been changed then, since the storms re-curved due to a trough, which has little to do with the high pressure over Texas.
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