Nate makes landfall; Maria organizing, but pulling away from the islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on September 11, 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate made landfall at 11 am EDT this morning just north of Barra de Nautla in the Mexican state of Veracruz, as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Nate, and the storm should not cause significant flooding or damage as it pushes inland and dissipates later today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Nate as it made landfall in the Veracruz state of Mexico near 11 am EDT Sunday, September 11, 2011.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria has managed to organize in the face of the persistent moderate wind shear that has affected it, and now looks a little more like a tropical storm should. Though the center of circulation lies partially exposed to view, satellite imagery shows a large area of heavy thunderstorms lies to the northeast of Maria's center. These rains and the storm's strongest winds lie well away from the Lesser Antilles Islands, though one spiral band is bringing heavy rains to the islands, as seen on Martinique radar. A wind gust of 40 mph was reported on St. Martin at 11 am EDT, and one of 36 mph affected St. Kitts and Nevis at 9 am EDT during a rain squall. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which should allow the storm to grow to hurricane strength by Tuesday. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda, and the island could see sustained winds in the 20 - 40 mph range. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday or Saturday, and residents there should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions late this week.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada yesterday morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 50 - 60 mph across the open Atlantic. On Monday, the storm will pass very close to the northern British Isles, bringing winds of 50 - 60 mph to the offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. Ex-Katia will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and its strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.


Figure 3. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is predicted to pass just north of the British Isles on Monday, bringing a large area 45 - 50 knots (52 - 58 mph, red colors) to the coast. This wind forecast is from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model made last night. To convert from knots to mph, multiply by 1.15.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 5 - 6 days from now off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update Monday morning. Peace to all this September 11!

Jeff Masters

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 112313
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
713 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE ON MONDAY...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND
CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ALSO LATE IN
THE WEEK...HURRICANE MARIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST




NOTICEABLE COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT
INTO FRI. COULD SEE UPSLOPE SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THU IN THE
MTNS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS...WITH A THREAT
FOR FROST IN THE NORTH...MORE LIKELY FRI NIGHT. ALSO...AS THE
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE IT WILL SLOW AND ALLOW HURRICANE MARIA TO
RIDE UP ALONG IT...PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST. SF HIGH BUILDS IN
FOR FRI-SUN...WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Rain is down here.... see what u guys caused by showing those cats dogs frogs etc????

Wish it would work that easy for TX.....


lol..



Now, Maria:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Rain is down here.... see what u guys caused by showing those cats dogs frogs etc????

Wish it would work that easy for TX.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
572. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

GEROGES? lol
I'm turning into my English teacher XD


Well whoops, LOL!

I had never mispronounced Georges before.

Let that be a lesson that posts should always be checked for orthography before being posted. xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Quoting JLPR2:
Well got bored and decided to check out Geroges's NHC discussion archive.

No wonder back then the NHC track wasn't as accurate as today...
THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER AND LBAR...AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

Those two aren't exactly stars these days. xD

Also, something interesting.
The SHIPS full name: STATISTICAL
HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME

I had never actually seen the SHIPS name.

GEROGES? lol
I'm turning into my English teacher XD
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
Quoting JLPR2:
Well got bored and decided to check out Geroges's NHC discussion archive.

No wonder back then the NHC track wasn't as accurate as today...
THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER AND LBAR...AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

Those two aren't exactly stars these days. xD

Also, something interesting.
The SHIPS full name: STATISTICAL
HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME

I had never actually seen the SHIPS name.


LOL.

I did the exact same thing this morning, except I did it for Floyd. I saw the CLIPER and LBAR, and I was like...lol, what?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Tanzania: At least 240 killed in ferry sinking
This year is just sad.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
568. JLPR2
Well got bored and decided to check out Georges's NHC discussion archive.

No wonder back then the NHC track wasn't as accurate as today...
THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER AND LBAR...AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

Those two aren't exactly stars these days. xD

Also, something interesting.
The SHIPS full name: STATISTICAL
HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME

I had never actually seen the SHIPS name.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Either everyone is posting red X's or my PC is in low gear......cant have that....tune up time..
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1496
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No, they've been permanently banned...Unless you mean...?
I find that hard to believe, unless somebody can hand me some kind of proof. Usually permabanned means their blogs and all their previous posts, ever, are gone. I find it hard to imagine what either of these bloggers might have done to merit such drastic action.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The caboose on the African Wave Train is comin into view.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I see what you did there...


:)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah...well..I think that book/movie series is *WeatherNerdPR looks at me*...ummm, pretty cool...

I see what you did there...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
i dont know if this works but 16 days out a hurricane making landfall in florida


That is awesome, as that is usually the last place it will be... I hope it shows it going right through South Florida and into NOLA. This way I know I will be safe.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10545
Maria is keeping my attention,,

2011 has a few aces to play easily yet.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i dont know if this works but 16 days out a hurricane making landfall in florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kap333:
Which Panhandle and when?

florida and about 10 to 16 days
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Patrap - Maria is at least looking a little better tonight. She is getting rid of the squished question mark look.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10545
556. Skyepony (Mod)
Eight persons have so far died and more than one million adversely affected in nearly 2,600 villages, due to devastating floods in India’s eastern state of Orissa, reported the Press Trust of India (PTI) on Sunday.

The villages in the state’s districts of Puri, Kendrapara, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Sambalpur, Boudh and Sonepur have been submerged in flooding waters. Floods have been caused mainly by overflowing rivers like Mahanadi due to incessant rains over the past one week.

As many as 61,000 people from these low-lying villages have been evacuated and put in temporary shelters. Rescue and relief work is being carried out to help those stuck in floods. Food-packets are also being air-dropped in the totally cut-off areas.

As many as 1,400 boats, including 200 mechanised vessels, have been were pressed into service to ferry those stuck in gushing waters to safer places. The state government has also issued directions to close schools in view of the grim situation.

According to the latest reports, though the volume of water-flow in Mahanadi and other rivers has started receding, the situation is likely to remain critical for the next two days as it would be difficult for excess water to be released into the sea due to high tide on account of full Moon on Monday, the report quoted state officials as saying.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No change to TS Maria:

AL, 14, 2011091200, , BEST, 0, 200N, 656W, 50, 1005, TS, 50, NEQ, 100, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, M,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Lordy, LOL

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kap333:
Which Panhandle and when?



Not to sound sarcastic, but I was assuming the Florida Panhandle...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10545
Quoting twincomanche:
It's all been deleted. It's as if they never existed.



wu black ops?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
imma go watch a 911 documentary
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Tazmanian:
i dont no did Nate even made land fall or did it poof out like Don did



...NATE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Which Panhandle and when?

Quoting wunderweatherman123:
18z GFS shows a 978mb storm making landfall in the panhandle
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i dont no did Nate even made land fall or did it poof out like Don did
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Da Boys...yall have a good night. The carribean sure does look moist...possible development? I'll check tomorrow...it's wierd in here right now.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
Quoting Dakster:


LOL. My son loves that book series.


Yeah...well..I think that book/movie series is *WeatherNerdPR looks at me*...ummm, pretty cool...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The Diary Of A Wimpy Storm.


LOL. My son loves that book series.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10545
Quoting sunlinepr:
Something I don't understand is the banning method in WU, or what is really going on....
The other day this troll began posting garbage about walmart in Caps for a long time. Suddenly all his posts were gone and he dissapeared. An hour latter the guy was back again.... with the same avatar...



well just the post being removed isnt a ban. If 10 of us report a comment the post is removed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nofailsafe:


Nate was Don's brother.


THE RESEMBLANCE
It's uncanny.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's the thing though...there wasn't any.


I'm seriously lost...oh, well, it ain't the first time, and it won't be the last...lol
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
Quoting weatherh98:


my algebra 1 teacher forgot to explain that

LOL
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
Quoting srada:


LOL, you dont need to use Plusses or Minuses if you are orchestrating Bans! Now you have the blog to reign over with your trusty subject of Koolaid drinkers until the Next Coming of Humor!

I've seen some Freaky posts.
But this one beats them all.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Every NFC South team Lost so Im way over it.

Was great game Thursday Night.

Yep, we're still tied for 1st place.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
You know, I don't know what I'm even supposed to be looking at here.

Nate, you are wimpy.


Nate was Don's brother.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 946
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

dry air + land interaction + weak storm = storm death
It's simple math.


my algebra 1 teacher forgot to explain that
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting muddertracker:
When did all the drama happen? I want to go back and take a look...musta been pretty brutal...


That's the thing though...there wasn't any.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The Diary Of A Wimpy Storm.

Instant classic! ;)
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
When did all the drama happen? I want to go back and take a look...musta been pretty brutal...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
Quoting weatherh98:


thats crazy it went poof very quickly

dry air + land interaction + weak storm = storm death
It's simple math.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1496
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The Diary Of A Wimpy Storm.


i wanna read that one;)
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.