Nate makes landfall; Maria organizing, but pulling away from the islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on September 11, 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate made landfall at 11 am EDT this morning just north of Barra de Nautla in the Mexican state of Veracruz, as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Nate, and the storm should not cause significant flooding or damage as it pushes inland and dissipates later today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Nate as it made landfall in the Veracruz state of Mexico near 11 am EDT Sunday, September 11, 2011.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria has managed to organize in the face of the persistent moderate wind shear that has affected it, and now looks a little more like a tropical storm should. Though the center of circulation lies partially exposed to view, satellite imagery shows a large area of heavy thunderstorms lies to the northeast of Maria's center. These rains and the storm's strongest winds lie well away from the Lesser Antilles Islands, though one spiral band is bringing heavy rains to the islands, as seen on Martinique radar. A wind gust of 40 mph was reported on St. Martin at 11 am EDT, and one of 36 mph affected St. Kitts and Nevis at 9 am EDT during a rain squall. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which should allow the storm to grow to hurricane strength by Tuesday. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda, and the island could see sustained winds in the 20 - 40 mph range. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday or Saturday, and residents there should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions late this week.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada yesterday morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 50 - 60 mph across the open Atlantic. On Monday, the storm will pass very close to the northern British Isles, bringing winds of 50 - 60 mph to the offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. Ex-Katia will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and its strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.


Figure 3. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is predicted to pass just north of the British Isles on Monday, bringing a large area 45 - 50 knots (52 - 58 mph, red colors) to the coast. This wind forecast is from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model made last night. To convert from knots to mph, multiply by 1.15.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 5 - 6 days from now off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update Monday morning. Peace to all this September 11!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Wstorm:


What a strange storm shape
Looks like A familiar face???
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Quoting aspectre:
aspectre "What the US military is s'poseta be doing is making it unnecessary to go to war. The soldiers are s'poseta be mostly doing maintenance and guard duty during peacetime."
208 seafarer459 "Says Who? Right, Wrong, or Indifferent. The job of a soldier, is to follow orders. No more, No less. Nuremberg still applies."

Says the US military -- which you obviously haven't experienced -- and the Laws of the Land.
The job of a soldier is to obey lawful orders to the extent that the nearby tactical situation allows.
And to disobey all unlawful orders, as well as to modify tactical orders from above to the situation at hand.
US troops are expected to be the opposite of robots: to use their minds to choose and to do what's Right.

Firstly... The Nuremberg thingy, shoulda gave ya a clue.
And any time you want to accompany me, to the VA, twice a month for treatment. Your welcome to.
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Quoting ncstorm:
has anyone noticed that Maria is south and west of her forecast points depicted by the models?



Yeah, and I know this will change, but wondering when our next trough is going to change this setup and allow her to move NW?

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has anyone noticed that Maria is south and west of her forecast points depicted by the models?

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This still from an animation looks like the question mark puffed itself back up after squishing though the Northern Antilles. 
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aspectre "What the US military is s'poseta be doing is making it unnecessary to go to war. The soldiers are s'poseta be mostly doing maintenance and guard duty during peacetime."
208 seafarer459 "Says Who? Right, Wrong, or Indifferent. The job of a soldier, is to follow orders. No more, No less. Nuremberg still applies."

Says the US military -- which you obviously haven't experienced -- and the Laws of the Land.
The job of a US soldier is to obey lawful orders to the extent that the nearby tactical situation allows. And to disobey all unlawful orders, as well as to modify tactical orders from above to the situation at hand.
US troops are expected to be the opposite of robots: to use their minds to choose&do what's Right.
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Quoting Bayside:


I mounted mine on my pilings near my boat because I wanted to know the wind speeds in that location, if I want unobstructed winds on the chesapeake, there are plenty of buoys I can check. This way during storms I know what winds are hitting my boats in their protected slips. I registered the strongest gust at 68mph during Irene.


That's kinda what I was getting at. Winds at 33ft are honestly useless to me cause I don't live at 33ft AGL, and those aren't the winds affecting my dwelling..
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Maria looks like a blowfish....blowing at W-Nerd :O

Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting weatherh98:
blog is to slow so it is xbox time

IPAD TIME! LOL
L8R
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i know going to play a round of defcon guess


cod zombies acension anyway gotta go but, maria looks to be weekening
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Quoting weatherh98:
blog is to slow so it is xbox time
i know going to play a round of defcon guess
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213. 7544
hi all well cant relly tell if shes moving w-wnw-or nw but if she still reamains this weak for another 24hours could she head more west and closer to the bahamas as predicted and does these strong trofs pick up weak storms like maria . onlyasking cause the forcast was having a hurricane at this time shes no way near there yet tia
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Quoting banjowes:
Although your predictions called for Irene to slam us as it did your accurate forcasting is appreciated more than you will ever know on Hatteras Island. Thank you

Wes


How's Hatteras now? I was supposed to be coming down next weekend, but have cancelled since Irene. It's my favorite place on the outer banks!
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Quoting islander101010:
hugo developed on the 8th of sept http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hugo going to have to get another cat if you live by the water in merritt island florida its invested with guess what i hate those things


? did I miss something? invested? infested? Boy, what a crazy blog today!
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Although your predictions called for Irene to slam us as it did your accurate forcasting is appreciated more than you will ever know on Hatteras Island. Thank you

Wes
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Quoting charlottefl:



Yeah well I'm working on a roof mount solution. All in good time. There is a big difference between the wind at the ground blocked by trees and being in the open. But that raises a question for me. Even though the wind reading are less, are they necessarily inaccurate? Or are they accurate for the location they are based in? Just something to think about. After all most structures aren't 33ft AGL..


I mounted mine on my pilings near my boat because I wanted to know the wind speeds in that location, if I want unobstructed winds on the chesapeake, there are plenty of buoys I can check. This way during storms I know what winds are hitting my boats in their protected slips. I registered the strongest gust at 68mph during Irene.
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Maria's kinda sheared...
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Quoting aspectre:
Hard to believe we've been at War for 10years. Really not fair to the troops to be engaged for so long.
What the US military is s'poseta be doing is making it unnecessary to go to war. The soldiers are s'poseta be mostly doing maintenance and guard duty during peacetime.
These guys (all volunteers) are doin' hard time for far too long.


fighting for you and me with there life so thankful for it though
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19.2n64.1w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Maria's_6pmGMT_ATCF
19.0n64.0w, 19.5n64.9w are now the most recent positions
Starting 10Sept_6pmGMT and ending 11Sept_6pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the island blob at 30.136n81.349w-fd48 is the endpoint of straightline projection on the most
recent*previous*mapping
connected to its nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 11.3mph(18.2k/h) on a heading of 300.5degrees(WNW)
TS.Maria was headed toward passage over SavannahSound,Eleuthera,Bahamas ~2days22hours from now

Copy&paste 30.136n81.349w-fd48, 17.5n62.0w-18.0n62.6w, 18.0n62.6w-18.6n63.3w, 18.6n63.3w-19.0n64.0w, 19.0n64.0w-19.5n64.9w, rsd, 19.0n64.0w-25.09n76.12w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 11Sept_12pmGMT)

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading -- sometimes quite noticeably as in this case from NW to WNW -- and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
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Hard to believe we've been at War for 10years. Really not fair to the troops to be engaged for so long.
What the US military is s'poseta be doing is making it unnecessary to go to war. The soldiers are s'poseta be mostly doing maintenance, training, and guard duty during peacetime.
These guys and gals, all volunteers, are doin' hard time far too often for far too long.
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Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:
CV storms don't just automatically shut show in the middle of September. They have occurred as late as November before, in my life time.


And as early as July.
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200. JLPR2
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Many arc clouds, dry air is beating the C out of Maria.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
CV storms don't just automatically shut show in the middle of September. They have occurred as late as November before, in my life time.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, probably.


yea it is at a stindstill lets post as much as you can
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Quoting aspectre:
TropicalAnalystwx13 "Wow...slow day...not even reached 200 posts.

And many may be listening to or attending 9/11 and war casualties memorial services of one sort or another


Yeah, probably.
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TropicalAnalystwx13 "Wow...slow day...not even reached 200 posts.

And many folks may be listening to or attending 9/11 and/or War casualties memorial services.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


wow looks to be expelling a lot of dry air
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Should see final advisory on Nate today
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Quoting LillyMyrrh:


At 8am AST, Tropical Depression #7 became Tropical Storm Felix. At 2pm EDT, Tropical Depression #8 formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Erin was the only hurricane on this date, 2001, though.



oh ok thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
A Cat2 in Newfoundland?? The 12Z GFDL is whack...
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A lot of people are probably watching some of the wall-to-wall coverage of 9/11 and its aftermath.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow...slow day...not even reached 200 posts.


HeHe only those of us in PR & the UK have anything to worry about right now!
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Nate? Where are you??
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Wow...slow day...not even reached 200 posts.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Maria's Center is somewhere in this image.


Very noticeable.
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Maria, the Mami of West Side Story, strip again of her dignity, by her former enemy the ULL, the one that has been following her most of her life time, while she tries her best to remain dress and wobble a little south of west...poor thing...
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Maria's Center is somewhere in this image.


good luck trying to find that one
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Maria's Center is somewhere in this image.
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24 hrs ago



now

the vorticity appears to be less displaced from the center
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hugo developed on the 8th of sept http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hugo going to have to get another cat if you live by the water in merritt island florida its invested with guess what i hate those things
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes.



And a Cat 5 at that only dropping to Cat 4 at landfall.
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Quoting Levi32:
And check out the nice 250mb anticyclone over the NW Caribbean by Day 12 on the 12z ensemble mean:



Very nice :)
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 927


you can really see where the hurricanes have tracked with irene nate lee and katia
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Quoting Tazmanian:




back on this day we had Hurricane Erin


Formed September 1, 2001
Dissipated September 15, 2001



thats the olny storm i can find un less we had more


At 8am AST, Tropical Depression #7 became Tropical Storm Felix. At 2pm EDT, Tropical Depression #8 formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Erin was the only hurricane on this date, 2001, though.
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Quoting AvidWeatherHound:
Wasn't Hugo a mid-September CV storm?


Yes.

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Quoting Levi32:


46 degrees and cloudy. We had pouring rain all day yesterday, rare for our interior area during the summer. We don't get much baroclinically-forced rain in Fairbanks until the winter months.
I will trade you Levi, 102 here with no humidity, yesterday it was 100, next 7 days 100 or greater and it is suppose to be like 90 here, clear, i have not seen clouds since June here.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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