Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Nate makes landfall; Maria organizing, but pulling away from the islands

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:15 PM GMT on September 11, 2011

+20

Tropical Storm Nate made landfall at 11 am EDT this morning just north of Barra de Nautla in the Mexican state of Veracruz, as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Nate, and the storm should not cause significant flooding or damage as it pushes inland and dissipates later today.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Nate as it made landfall in the Veracruz state of Mexico near 11 am EDT Sunday, September 11, 2011.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria has managed to organize in the face of the persistent moderate wind shear that has affected it, and now looks a little more like a tropical storm should. Though the center of circulation lies partially exposed to view, satellite imagery shows a large area of heavy thunderstorms lies to the northeast of Maria's center. These rains and the storm's strongest winds lie well away from the Lesser Antilles Islands, though one spiral band is bringing heavy rains to the islands, as seen on Martinique radar. A wind gust of 40 mph was reported on St. Martin at 11 am EDT, and one of 36 mph affected St. Kitts and Nevis at 9 am EDT during a rain squall. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which should allow the storm to grow to hurricane strength by Tuesday. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda, and the island could see sustained winds in the 20 - 40 mph range. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday or Saturday, and residents there should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions late this week.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada yesterday morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 50 - 60 mph across the open Atlantic. On Monday, the storm will pass very close to the northern British Isles, bringing winds of 50 - 60 mph to the offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. Ex-Katia will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and its strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.

Figure 3. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is predicted to pass just north of the British Isles on Monday, bringing a large area 45 - 50 knots (52 - 58 mph, red colors) to the coast. This wind forecast is from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model made last night. To convert from knots to mph, multiply by 1.15.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 5 - 6 days from now off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update Monday morning. Peace to all this September 11!

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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51. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:19 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting Levi32: I wanted to but slept too much again. I'll have an update tomorrow. Cough Alarm Clock Cough Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

52. Chicklit 5:19 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
from 11 a.m.: NHC DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM...TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. FORECASTER BROWN Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

53. Relix 5:19 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting Levi32: Because there are two vortices rotating around a common center, which overall is not moving WSW but WNW. Thanks! :P! Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

54. Levi32 5:20 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Cough Alarm Clock Cough I don't set it on weekends lol. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

55. Chicklit 5:20 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Newfoundland is expected to get more tropical action this week. Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

56. washingtonian115 5:21 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
It's also starting to get darker way early.I don't rmember it getting as dark that fast last year.The last time that happened was back in 02-03.And that was a cold snowey winter for us. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10655

57. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:22 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115: It's also starting to get darker way early.I don't rmember it getting as dark that fast last year.The last time that happened was back in 02-03.And that was a cold snowey winter for us. Where do you live? Washington? Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

58. MiamiHurricanes09 5:22 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Cough Alarm Clock Cough It's the weekend. Alarm clocks should be destroyed on Saturday and Sunday mornings. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

59. Relix 5:22 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Also.... Maria must be moving darn slowly. Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

60. KingofNewOrleans 5:22 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115: It's also starting to get darker way early.I don't rmember it getting as dark that fast last year.The last time that happened was back in 02-03.And that was a cold snowey winter for us. Uh, your sunrise and sunset vary year-to-year? What planet are you on? Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 103

61. MississippiWx 5:23 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Congrats, Texas. You made another tropical storm vanish into thin air. Amazing! Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8587

62. washingtonian115 5:23 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Where do you live? Washington? Oh hell no.I live in the nation's capitol.Washington state is a total fail.D.C.Not W.A. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10655

63. charlottefl 5:25 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx: Congrats, Texas. You made another tropical storm vanish into thin air. Amazing! It appears we know what a Hurricane's kryptonite is... Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

64. BahaHurican 5:25 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Frankly, I think the central issue with our storms has been impacts from that high. Strong high, set up over the Azores, with well developed extension towards / over FL for most of the season has driven AOIs / Twaves / TDs / TSs westward at ridiculous paces. Come on.... 25mph, the commonly seen speed of movement of many of our AEW systems, sounds more like that of a storm getting ready to head off into the horse latitudes. This produced higher than expected shear. Additionally, the high by definition comprises drier, more stable air, making it easier for tropical systems to be further disrupted. The other "that high", the one over TX, has had the multiple effects of keeping the GoM extra dry, adding dust, and steering the resultant enfeeble storms south over MX. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17661

65. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:25 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115: Oh hell no.I live in the nation's capitol.Washington state is a total fail.D.C.Not W.A. I'd expect average to above average snowfall. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

66. washingtonian115 5:25 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting KingofNewOrleans: Uh, your sunrise and sunset vary year-to-year? What planet are you on? Dude so not necessary on so many levels.I'm on EARTH.And NORMALLY at this time of year the sun is suppose to set at 7:30.But it's starting to get darker at 6:00 insted of 7:00. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10655

67. Sfloridacat5 5:26 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115: It's also starting to get darker way early.I don't rmember it getting as dark that fast last year.The last time that happened was back in 02-03.And that was a cold snowey winter for us. Starting June 22 the days start getting shorter in the Northern Hemisphere. It should be getting dark the same times as last year. Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026

68. weatherh98 5:26 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
already vorticity coming off of africa Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091

69. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:26 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: It's the weekend. Alarm clocks should be destroyed on Saturday and Sunday mornings. Lol. Didn't even wake up until 10AM this morning, not that it matters. :P Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

70. Chicklit 5:26 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
The Caribbean looks like it's waking up. I heard someone mention MJO might be returning. Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

71. gulfbreeze 5:27 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting basti11: im confident in saying this a really strong cold front coming down this thursday or friday should drop our morning low temps in the the upper 30s n of the lake and in the upper 40s to low 50s south...this should end the hurricane season for the the gom from houston texas to cedar keys fla for this year...the gulf temps will be much to cool to support tropical activity...we do have someone watching over us...se fla the bahamas and of course the caribbean are all up for grabs but we can say its over with this front coming down this week....this is very unusual we get temps this cool in september... we have already broken records over 100 years old in louisiana and miss....how sweet it is let the cold air flow in.... It's not going to get that COLD! Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 601

72. weatherh98 5:27 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I'd expect average to above average snowfall. we never see consistant 70s and 60s in sela till november and we hada week straight of it brrr cold Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091

74. washingtonian115 5:28 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting Sfloridacat5: Starting June 22 the days start getting shorting in the Northern Hemisphere. It should be getting dark the same times as last year. It's starting to get darkn at 6:00 instead of 7:30 like did last year. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10655

75. Chicklit 5:29 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
This is from 11 a.m. Tropical Discussion: A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N82W 16N81W 12N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N O THE WEST OF 80W. A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE ENVELOPS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LinkShortWaveCarib Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

76. muddertracker 5:29 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx: Congrats, Texas. You made another tropical storm vanish into thin air. Amazing! Sadly, I think Texas is turning into a desert. At least it will be a free desert filled with liberty, truth, and justice for all! Never Forget our Heroes Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2126

77. yoboi 5:29 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
hurricane season over in 2 weeks just fish storms after that Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2421

78. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:29 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting Chicklit: The Caribbean looks like it's waking up. I heard someone mention MJO might be returning. Its forecast to, yes. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

79. charlottefl 5:30 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Our low temps have come down quite a bit after peaking sometime last week. And you can feel the change in the air just a bit... EDIT: The real cool down though won't be for a while down here. It's starts gradually getting cooler starting the first week of Sept tho... Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

80. Sfloridacat5 5:30 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Always warm and muggy through Holloween in my area. I remember always being hot walking around on holloween night. Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026

81. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:33 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting basti11: sorry you need to look whats coming out of canada then you will think differently.... we are about to fire up the fans for a test run on wed high 50's to low 60's for highs low to mid thirties for lows commencing by mid week till rebound at end of next weekend fall cometh snow and ice cover on the rebound as well Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40565

82. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:35 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting charlottefl: Our low temps have come down quite a bit after peaking sometime last week. And you can feel the change in the air just a bit... This is ours: Should see the high temperatures fall quite a bit come the weekend, when highs below 80F are expected. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

83. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:35 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40565

84. Sfloridacat5 5:36 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting yoboi: hurricane season over in 2 weeks just fish storms after that Here's what late October can look like. Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026

85. emcf30 5:36 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Nice moist flow setting up in the Caribbean. Is this a sign of things to come. I think so. Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

86. charlottefl 5:36 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This is ours: Should see the high temperatures fall quite a bit come the weekend, when highs below 80F are expected. Is that your station? Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

87. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:37 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
12Z GFS precipitation forecast for the USA through 9/19/2011: Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

88. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:38 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting charlottefl: Is that your station? No, but it is close. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

90. MZT 5:41 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
I'm just glad to see Maria stuggling and likely to move away from the US. I have gutter work planned at one of my rentals this Thursday. Now to cross my fingers until mid-October when I can plan update another one. Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 775

91. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:42 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM MARIA...LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND ON TROPICAL STORM NATE...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN =================================== BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 100 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011 ...NATE MOVING INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 97.2W ABOUT 15 MI...30 KM E OF POZA RICA MEXICO ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

92. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:44 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting yoboi: hurricane season over in 2 weeks just fish storms after that cv season will draw to a close in two weeks and a bit yes but then we could get the real killers in the fall from nw sw carb boc in the gom and sw atlantic north of antilles east of fla all the bahaman waters most of those are trackers from the sw to the ne and history shows some can be quite powerful even strongest of entire season yet to come Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40565

93. charlottefl 5:44 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: No, but it is close. I'm having an issue finding a spot to mount my anemometer. The yard is well, not very open, so I've moved it about 20 times to no avail. Move #21 probably sometime this week, maybe I'll eventually find a good spot for it ...lol Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

94. Wunderwood 5:44 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Check out Joe Bastardi's tweet about the Caribbean during the week of the 18th. Member Since: July 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 54

96. interstatelover7165 5:45 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Happy Birthday Dr. M. Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 871

98. TropicalWeatherGrl88 5:46 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting Sfloridacat5: Here's what late October can look like. I just don't see that happening this year with the way these storms are having a hard time getting going. I think tropical storm out to the north east. Very similar to what the latest GFS is showing Member Since: September 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 216

99. SubtropicalHi 5:47 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Happy Birthday Dr. Masters Remembering 911.....Peace to all Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 354

100. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:47 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Quoting charlottefl: I'm having an issue finding a spot to mount my anemometer. The yard is well, not very open, so I've moved it about 20 times to no avail. Move #21 probably sometime this week, maybe I'll eventually find a good spot for it ...lol lol. Put it on your roof :P Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

101. Dakster 5:47 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
We can thank Texas for sucking the life out of at least two storms this year si far. Wish I could send rain there way! Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4938

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