Nate makes landfall; Maria organizing, but pulling away from the islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on September 11, 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate made landfall at 11 am EDT this morning just north of Barra de Nautla in the Mexican state of Veracruz, as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Nate, and the storm should not cause significant flooding or damage as it pushes inland and dissipates later today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Nate as it made landfall in the Veracruz state of Mexico near 11 am EDT Sunday, September 11, 2011.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria has managed to organize in the face of the persistent moderate wind shear that has affected it, and now looks a little more like a tropical storm should. Though the center of circulation lies partially exposed to view, satellite imagery shows a large area of heavy thunderstorms lies to the northeast of Maria's center. These rains and the storm's strongest winds lie well away from the Lesser Antilles Islands, though one spiral band is bringing heavy rains to the islands, as seen on Martinique radar. A wind gust of 40 mph was reported on St. Martin at 11 am EDT, and one of 36 mph affected St. Kitts and Nevis at 9 am EDT during a rain squall. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which should allow the storm to grow to hurricane strength by Tuesday. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda, and the island could see sustained winds in the 20 - 40 mph range. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday or Saturday, and residents there should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions late this week.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada yesterday morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 50 - 60 mph across the open Atlantic. On Monday, the storm will pass very close to the northern British Isles, bringing winds of 50 - 60 mph to the offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. Ex-Katia will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and its strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.


Figure 3. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is predicted to pass just north of the British Isles on Monday, bringing a large area 45 - 50 knots (52 - 58 mph, red colors) to the coast. This wind forecast is from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model made last night. To convert from knots to mph, multiply by 1.15.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 5 - 6 days from now off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update Monday morning. Peace to all this September 11!

Jeff Masters

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Eeww, Nate is nekkid!
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Thanks, Doc and happy birthday!

R.I.P. to all the people who lost their lives in the tragic day, ten years ago.


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Happy Birthday, Dr.Masters

From the last blog, comment1364 Dakster "The mountains in Florida are so deforested, they took the mountains with them...

Get your Floridian Islands beachfront properties while they're still affordable ;-)
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


My prediction: Does not weaken, but strengthens slowly over the next 24-36 hours. Reaches a peak of 80-90 mph before weakening between Bermuda and North Carolina.

Your prediction: its wrong anyways, so...

No, I'm j/k, lol.
Nah man, it's true LOL. My intensity forecasts all of September have been pure ****.
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65.0W, 19.9N.

IMO.
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Well, at least we can tell she has a center this time.
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Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Exposed circulation and plenty of outflow boundaries noted on RGB.

Maria's gonna have a tough afternoon and evening.



A window for intensification opens up in between 48 and 72 hours when the SHIPS forecasts that upper-level winds dip below 20 knots. This may allow for a faster rate of intensification, but until then, I think it'll maintain it's intensity and just strengthen very slowly. It's very possible that it weakens in between now and then too however since it does have to face 20+ knots of wind shear for much of the next 36 hours.

SHEAR (KT) 23 15 22 22 16 18 11 12 15 25 20 23 36


My prediction: Does not weaken, but strengthens slowly over the next 24-36 hours. Reaches a peak of 80-90 mph before weakening between Bermuda and North Carolina.

Your prediction: its wrong anyways, so...

No, I'm j/k, lol.
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Maria looks like shear is undergoing some heavy duty shear. The LLC completely exposed and seems like it wants to race out ahead of the deep convection.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
Exposed circulation and plenty of outflow boundaries noted on RGB.

Maria's gonna have a tough afternoon and evening.



A window for intensification opens up in between 48 and 72 hours when the SHIPS forecasts that upper-level winds dip below 20 knots. This may allow for a faster rate of intensification, but until then, I think it'll maintain it's intensity or just strengthen very slowly. It's very possible that it weakens in between now and then too however since it does have to face 20 knots of wind shear for much of the next 36 hours.

SHEAR (KT) 23 15 22 22 16 18 11 12 15 25 20 23 36
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yeaaaaaaaaaaaaa the good Dr did mention this day indeed.
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Moving to Newfoundland for Tropical Weather. lol
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Thank you for the update on your HAPPY BIRTHDAY!
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Thanks, Dr. M. And Happy B-day.

From previous:
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Any surge data? Talk about a tempest in a teapot.
None that I know of.

Not likely higher than ~7 feet above normal, at a singular peak, with this one, though. *Could* be significant for some coastal folks, there, but certainly not spectacular.

With this profile, probably a wider area of ~4 feet above normal. IIRC, tidal range there is rather small, as well.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I posted it on the old blog -- GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and NGP.
Looks like the C.V season isn't over.
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LOL They fixed it.
...CENTER OF MARIA PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...STRONG WINDS REMAIN WELL NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...
It used to say:
...CENTER OF MARINA PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...STRONG WINDS REMAIN WELL NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
What model is the Doc looking at that develops a new african wave?


I posted it on the old blog -- GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and NGP.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 16:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 14L in 2011
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 15:33:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°22'N 64°26'W (19.3667N 64.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 125 miles (202 km) to the ENE (58°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,481m (4,859ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 72 nautical miles (83 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 121° at 42kts (From the ESE at ~ 48.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 74 nautical miles (85 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the east quadrant at 14:53:00Z


60 mph/1007 mb. just like the 11AM advisory.
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 16:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 14L in 2011
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 15:33:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°22'N 64°26'W (19.3667N 64.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 125 miles (202 km) to the ENE (58°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,481m (4,859ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 72 nautical miles (83 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 121° at 42kts (From the ESE at ~ 48.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 74 nautical miles (85 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the east quadrant at 14:53:00Z
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Thanks Doc. Happy Birthday :)
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Thank You Dr. Masters!
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What model is the Doc looking at that develops a new african wave?
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A moment of Silence for all on Sept 11th....
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Thank you Dr. Wonder what will turn out of the new african wave..
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.