Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway
Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.
Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.
Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.
Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.
The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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No, its an eye. As noted from the 11AM discussion from the National Hurricane Center:
"AN EYE...OPEN TO THE SOUTH...IS
APPARENT IN THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
SOME TILT BETWEEN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS."
I am aware, that's why I said unanimous model support for it.
That the best you got HJ. You all bet on the wrong horse.
Its his opinion, stop bashing him.
PATHETIC!
Can we say cash for clunkers? What a joke!! Auto Industry? Are you kidding? Another goverment run industry... Get real!!
A moment of awakening on all this global warming is needed, as it is of not one iota of importance to what we might do about global warming, based on what has happened in the recent past. What is the goal now is what are we going to do to prevent more of what has happened until the point is reached where we cant do anything!
In a few years all this CO2 is going to get out of hand with its effects, whatever they are.
Nice wording. Yes, it was "filed" during the previous administration who denied it. It was picked back up by the current administration and fast-tracked through. Emails and details are showing it was for political reason.
Back at ya.
Not in cool waters yet, still at 28-29 °C, which is plenty to sustain Maria for the next 12-24 hours.
Check your mail.
Whatever Doug. No one in the history of the country has ever made an investment in something that failed, right? What about the auto industry loans? That's a great success story. Don't hear you talking about that. Also don't hear any mention of the Green energy success stories of which there are many.
Why don't you try watching something other than Fox Noise? Maybe you'd learn something. Your man crush JB is on there now so you should be a happy camper
Also. In my opinion, our government shouldn't be investing in private industry. Let the natural ebb and flo of free enterprise sort out the winners and losers so that our government isn't gambling with taxpayer money. Is that such an extreme position?
Very well said!
Aw Geeze...This stings
Link
FALL!
Good arguments (on both sides of an issue) need extrinsic evidence (i.e. factual information) not intrinsic. (i.e. opinions and 'feelings').
My parting shot is this: if you can't take the reality of being disagreed with, don't post your opinion.
From yesterday's sworn testimony of Jonathan Silver, Executive Director of the Loan Programs Office at the DOE:
"Solyndra submitted its initial application in 2006, and much of the extensive due diligence on the transaction was conducted between 2006 and the end of 2008. By late 2008, Solyndra was considered by those involved in the DOE loan programs to be the project most advanced in the due diligence process, and the likely recipient of the program’s first loan guarantee. In fact, by the time the Obama Administration took office in late January 2009, the loan programs’ staff had already established a goal of, and timeline for, issuing the company a conditional loan guarantee commitment in March 2009.
"After the Obama Administration took office, the loan programs’ staff, and their advisors, continued their comprehensive review of the transaction and, in March 2009, on the exact timeline that had been developed during the Bush Administration, the program issued Solyndra a conditional commitment for a $535 million loan guarantee. Subsequently, in September 2009, following several more months of rigorous and comprehensive due diligence and documentation by the loan programs’ staff and external advisors, and the raising of almost $200 million of additional private investment by the company, the transaction reached financial close and DOE formally issued its loan guarantee.
"Although I was not at the Department when the Solyndra loan guarantee was considered or issued, it is my understanding that the transaction went through nearly three years of rigorous and exhaustive internal and external due diligence before any taxpayer funds were put at risk."
Also, This timeline of the whole mess.
I'm not saying the current administration did no wrong; if evidence of any is found, there should and will be repercussions. But facts are facts, and they alone should dictate the course of action.
The global models still aren't too enthusiastic with the Caribbean development we have been anticipating, however, they do continue to indicate that favorable conditions will be in place for some sort of cyclogenesis in the coming days and weeks.
Interesting path depicted on the 12z GFS for Ophelia. As it enters the Caribbean it is confined south of 15˚N and still manages to recurve towards the northeast before 70˚W...in September! That would definitely be interesting to say the least.
I 100% agree.
I don't know about you, but I think we've already had one to make this season memorable. Did we already forget about Irene? 55 people dead 20 Billion + in Damage across the Caribbean and the U.S. Let the rest go out to sea. We already have had a devastating season.
makes since to me!!
565 MILLION DOLLARS,NOT BILLION,NOT TRILLION
Stay and post weather with me :D
I'm the only one..
I think it's worth mentioning that 8 days after Solyndra announced they were filing Chapter 11, the FBI raided their offices to investigate possible fraud. So... yeah, us taxpayers got screwed on this deal and guess what... our taxpayer-funded FBI is on the case, as they should be.
Now, what I haven't seen is any outrage over a report released just two weeks ago which states:
"As much as $60 billion in U.S. funds has been lost to waste and fraud in Iraq and Afghanistan over the past decade through lax oversight of contractors, poor planning and payoffs to warlords and insurgents, an independent panel investigating U.S. wartime spending estimates."
Source 1
Source 2
I haven't heard anything about FBI raids on military contractors' offices yet, but let's hope they're in the works, right?
Let's review:
- $0.5 billion wasted by a fraudulent "green" company
- company is under investigation by FBI
- citizens are (rightly) outraged
- $31 to $60 billion wasted by military contractors
- no announced investigation
- no outrage by anyone (that I've heard)
I'm a little confused...
Sorry, check it out
No, probably from a tropical wave entering from the east or just the buildup of moisture in the area that will be taking place in a few days from now.
Why, are you a fan of abrupt climate change?
(One of my posts above states clearly that I thought abrupt climate change was unlikely. But I hadn't seen that article. So thanks.)
On a more pressing note, euro ensemble means are tending toward an A-B high conducive to westward movement in the atlantic. Should continue to see waves making it across for the foreseeable future.
Couldn't agree more with you Doug.
Key word, (plural)
I would agree with the "out of control" ratings system. It does nothing but promote the same social Darwinism on this blog as is present in high school - the formation of "cliques" and the vilification of individuals that do not "belong" to them. IMHO the whole ratings system does nothing but stifle open and honest debate among the members here.
I do agree with both hurricanejunky and Neopolitan. I have come on here asking questions pertaining to climate change models and potential effects on tropical weather activity, and been pounced upon. Oftentimes people's opinion and/or interpretation of data are vilified - and people from both sides of the spectrum are guilty of this.
Last but not least, is that I agree with Grothar. We all need to develop a sense of humor, and stop fighting with one another. It is extremely unproductive, and serves no purpose but to further reinforce the extreme positions that people have.
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