Typhoon Roke batters Japan; Ophelia forms in the Central Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on September 21, 2011

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Typhoon Roke hit Japan near Hamamatsu at 14:00 JST Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. Roke brought sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 83 mph to the Tokyo airport at 5:25 pm local time, and a wind gust of 89 mph was reported at Shizuhama Airbase. Roke has dumped heavy rains of 155 mm (6.20") at Hamamatsu and 125 mm (4.86") at Tokyo. Damage due to flooding from Roke's heavy rains will likely be the main problem from Roke, as the soils over much of Japan are saturated from the passage of Tropical Storm Talas during the first week of September. Talas was a very slow moving storm, and brought extreme rainfall amounts of over six feet to some portions of Japan. Roke brought winds less than 25 mph to the damaged Fukishima-Dai-Iche nuclear plant northeast of Tokyo, and heavy rains of 189 mm (7.50") to Hirono, located 8 miles south of the plant.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Roke as it made landfall at 14:00 JST on September 21, 2011. The typhoon brought a large area of rainfall of 50 mm/hr (2"/hr) to Japan. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Roke taken at 3:55 UTC on Wednesday, September 21, 2011. At the time, Roke was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Ophelia forms in the Atlantic
Tropical Storm Ophelia formed last night in the Central Atlantic from the tropical wave (Invest 98L) we've been tracking this week. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia is suffering the classic symptoms of high wind shear, with the low level center of circulation exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation. An analysis of wind shear from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due to strong upper level west-southwesterly winds affecting Ophelia. We don't have any ship, buoy, or hurricane hunter observations of Ophelia's winds, but an ASCAT pass from 7:27 pm EDT last night found top winds of 45 mph in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Ophelia will be passing south of buoy 41041 late tonight. Water vapor satellite images show dry air to the the west of Ophelia, and the strong upper level west-southwesterly winds bringing high wind shear to the storm are also injecting dry air into the storm's core, interfering with development.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience moderate to high wind shear of 10 - 25 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. The combination of shear and dry air should keep Ophelia from strengthening, and could dissipate the storm, as predicted by the ECMWF and HWRF models. The Northern Lesser Antilles could see some wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph and heavy rain squalls from Ophelia on Saturday and Sunday, but right now it looks unlikely that the islands would see sustained tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph, since they are likely to be on Ophelia's weaker (dry) side. At longer ranges, Bermuda will have to keep an eye on Ophelia, since a large cut-off low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. should turn Ophelia to the northwest and then north early next week. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.

Ophelia is the 15th named storm this year, putting 2011 in 10th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Ophelia's formation date of September 21 puts 2011 in 4th place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 15th storm. Only 2005, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 15th storm. With only three of this year's fifteen storms reaching hurricane strength, though, this year has been near average for destructive potential. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting NoLa86:
he reports everybody. admin doesent give a crap who he reports
God no, he IS Tight!
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Circulation center of tropical perturbation moving over Puerto Rico now - heavy rain and lightening being reported in many areas - fast moving but very interesting.

Link
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Quoting Wariac:
Weather blog, people, weather blog. I want info on TS Ophelia not a troll contest. Back to lurking before I get flamed.

PS - Windy, rainy and lighting here in Fajardo thanks to 99L.


Can I stay at your house for a night to experience this fun weather? :)
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Weather blog, people, weather blog. I want info on TS Ophelia not a troll contest. Back to lurking before I get flamed.

PS - Windy, rainy and lighting here in Fajardo thanks to 99L.
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692. DFWjc
Quoting Tazmanian:
good night


Night Taz..
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Yea! When Fldewey was banned I couldn't get out of bed for 3 days. Dewey reincarnate yourself!
iam sure he has along with all the others but now they come just to destroy maybe bring it down so that no one gets to enjoy it if they can kinda like MAD you know

Mutual
Assured
Destruction
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good night
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
689. DFWjc
Quoting mossyhead:
You are correct on what happened.


I know I am, you should of seen the gang up on Basti today...it's almost the pot calling the kettle.. why people gotta hate...
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Quoting DJMedik91:


Taz, why report me? I dont think I have said anything wrong at all. I have lurked this blog for several years and have seen some members attacked for their views.

I dont think anything I have ever said is worth being reported. But if you feel that way then report me. I've tried to explain some type of continuity in the blog, and if I am wrong then ban me.
he reports everybody. admin doesent give a crap who he reports
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687. JLPR2
Jeez, the lightning is getting so frequent it looks like a bunch of paparazzi. XD
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Quoting Tazmanian:





your going too end up ban from here by the end of the night i been reporting your commets no need too keep going on about this and your last commet got reported has well so i would stop if i where you


Taz, why report me? I dont think I have said anything wrong at all. I have lurked this blog for several years and have seen some members attacked for their views.

I dont think anything I have ever said is worth being reported. But if you feel that way then report me. I've tried to explain some type of continuity in the blog, and if I am wrong then ban me.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it is too late with all the bannings as of late we have now reached the point where there is more trolls and people trying to get around bans that it really is just a big circus now be glad when season ends and we can await the start of next season


That's right...there are seasons to come, all will be ok :))
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Quoting JLPR2:


I think it's too late. WU, well to be more exact, this blog fell apart already.

I stay on topic in almost every single one of my posts and it isn't hard to do. Why can't everyone else do it too?
it is too late with all the bannings as of late we have now reached the point where there is more trolls and people trying to get around bans that it really is just a big circus now be glad when season ends and we can await the start of next season
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Quoting scooster67:
Hey Taz!

Can I borrow your Poof machine? Had to send mine in for repairs. :)




sure you may rent it for $500 a day
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Anyhow, looks like a nice experience to have.... Just have to plan my next vacation in Conus....




ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
Hey Taz!

Can I borrow your Poof machine? Had to send mine in for repairs. :)
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Quoting luigi18:
Thunder begin to roll at SAN JUAN thanks to 99L

True i live in San juan
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Quoting Tazmanian:




LOL thats not my family hop am not being rude by saying that this some good friends i have


Anyhow, looks like a nice experience to have.... Just have to plan my next vacation in Conus....
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Another rainy night thanks to 99L.
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Quoting WeatherWx:


just put them on ignore, use what the site gives you.
Here is a piece of your own advice. Try it. :)
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Tazz i have been here longer than even you so i know what i can say or not say
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673. JLPR2
Here it comes.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Looks like that was an enjoying moment with the family....
Here I go bodyboarding, snorkling or SCUBA.... But would be nice to do rafting...




LOL thats not my family hop am not being rude by saying that this some good friends i have
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
Quoting Tazmanian:



that was about class 1 or low end class 2 rapids there where point on the river that where you can get out of the raft and go swimming if you wanted too


Looks like that was an enjoying moment with the family....
Here I go bodyboarding, snorkling or SCUBA.... But would be nice to do rafting...
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Quoting Tazmanian:





can you take this out of the mine blog your going too end up geting ban from here if you dont stop with this
Taz, you always seem to rise above the controversy. A true diplomat you are!
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Hey Taz, that rivere rafting.... What difficulty was that?... many rapids? Never done so....



that was about class 1 or low end class 2 rapids there where point on the river that where you can get out of the raft and go swimming if you wanted too
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
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Quoting JLPR2:


I think it's too late. WU, well to be more exact, this blog fell apart already.

I stay on topic in almost every single one of my posts and it isn't hard to do. Why can't everyone else do it too?


Because instead of actually using logic by abiding by the rules, we need to get all pissy and utilize emotion instead. We ARE after all, the most logical species on the planet.

Oh wait. LOL
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Quoting WeatherWx:


You can thank a particular blogger for pulling up a buried post from long ago today. I was speaking tropics most of this eve(go check my posts)


I am not about to wade through countless posts, so I will just take your word for it.

That being said, just because he brought up something from the past, does not mean you had to advance it. We have private messaging for this sort of crap.

Also, I am not singling you out to blame.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i wounder if WU will evere fix this


Hey Taz, that rivere rafting.... What difficulty was that?... many rapids? Never done so....

only kayaks on the area....
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Quoting JLPR2:


I think it's too late. WU, well to be more exact, this blog fell apart already.

I stay on topic in almost every single one of my posts and it isn't hard to do. Why can't everyone else do it too?




not sure but if they want too find out the hard way then so be it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
656. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:
i wounder if WU will evere fix this


I think it's too late. WU, well to be more exact, this blog fell apart already.

I stay on topic in almost every single one of my posts and it isn't hard to do. Why can't everyone else do it too?
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Quoting DJMedik91:


And just another unclassy comment to classify you as a troll. Do you feel better about yourself now?
Come On Man!
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i wounder if WU will evere fix this
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
Quoting WeatherWx:



I like to call people trolls?lol When was the last time I did that? btw, Basti11 was attacking many bloggers today and I was defending them. Why not work on not confusing me with other bloggers who are obsessed with the T word, thanks.


Nobody is saying that. But when you post comments to instigate a conflict, you give the impression of a troll.
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testing
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
Quoting KoritheMan:
Here we ******* go. Jesus Christ.




noted am waiting for the 00z too lode some lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
500

??
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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