Typhoon Roke batters Japan; Ophelia forms in the Central Atlantic
Typhoon Roke hit Japan near Hamamatsu at 14:00 JST Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. Roke brought sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 83 mph to the Tokyo airport at 5:25 pm local time, and a wind gust of 89 mph was reported at Shizuhama Airbase. Roke has dumped heavy rains of 155 mm (6.20") at Hamamatsu and 125 mm (4.86") at Tokyo. Damage due to flooding from Roke's heavy rains will likely be the main problem from Roke, as the soils over much of Japan are saturated from the passage of Tropical Storm Talas during the first week of September. Talas was a very slow moving storm, and brought extreme rainfall amounts of over six feet to some portions of Japan. Roke brought winds less than 25 mph to the damaged Fukishima-Dai-Iche nuclear plant northeast of Tokyo, and heavy rains of 189 mm (7.50") to Hirono, located 8 miles south of the plant.
Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Roke as it made landfall at 14:00 JST on September 21, 2011. The typhoon brought a large area of rainfall of 50 mm/hr (2"/hr) to Japan. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.
Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Roke taken at 3:55 UTC on Wednesday, September 21, 2011. At the time, Roke was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Storm Ophelia forms in the Atlantic
Tropical Storm Ophelia formed last night in the Central Atlantic from the tropical wave (Invest 98L) we've been tracking this week. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia is suffering the classic symptoms of high wind shear, with the low level center of circulation exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation. An analysis of wind shear from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due to strong upper level west-southwesterly winds affecting Ophelia. We don't have any ship, buoy, or hurricane hunter observations of Ophelia's winds, but an ASCAT pass from 7:27 pm EDT last night found top winds of 45 mph in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Ophelia will be passing south of buoy 41041 late tonight. Water vapor satellite images show dry air to the the west of Ophelia, and the strong upper level west-southwesterly winds bringing high wind shear to the storm are also injecting dry air into the storm's core, interfering with development.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side.
Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience moderate to high wind shear of 10 - 25 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. The combination of shear and dry air should keep Ophelia from strengthening, and could dissipate the storm, as predicted by the ECMWF and HWRF models. The Northern Lesser Antilles could see some wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph and heavy rain squalls from Ophelia on Saturday and Sunday, but right now it looks unlikely that the islands would see sustained tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph, since they are likely to be on Ophelia's weaker (dry) side. At longer ranges, Bermuda will have to keep an eye on Ophelia, since a large cut-off low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. should turn Ophelia to the northwest and then north early next week. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.
Ophelia is the 15th named storm this year, putting 2011 in 10th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Ophelia's formation date of September 21 puts 2011 in 4th place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 15th storm. Only 2005, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 15th storm. With only three of this year's fifteen storms reaching hurricane strength, though, this year has been near average for destructive potential. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index
Guess I need to cancel my vacation I had planned for Palm Beach.
you most un stall 6.0 too in stall it has it will not upgrade when you hit updates
Link
well, aren't you just the little ray of sunshine for us in S. FL? We shall see. I figure something might hit, but not the doom and gloom and disaster you are predicting.
which island?
Considering he has no proof of his "20 years of experience", I'd wager that you're probably safe.
That being said, no areas of the US should let down their guard. Season's not over yet...
LOL FUNNY
sxm
Guess it depends where in Florida:
Although overall tropical activity typically begins to quiet down in the Atlantic Basin during the month of October, south Florida is still prone to a tropical cyclone strike. In fact, since 1851 more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season.
So far: 0.7825 10^4 kt^2
YES to wind shear!
NO to more tropical waves.
"Jubilation, she loves me again
I fall on the floor and I'm laughing.
Jubilation, she loves me again.
I fall on the floor and I'm laughing....
Simon and Garfunkle and the song of the day
Would be interesting if FL. resorted back to the 1800's, a time where activity was very low for the state.
Agreed, I said two blogs ago that activity in the Western portion of the Caribbean would produce a storm that would curve over Cuba and head towards Southern Florida or the Bahamas...(the time now would be 8-10 days counting down from what i predicted a week ago).
WRN/SWRN PR. TS OPHELIA FCST TO PASS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
AND ATTM IT DOES NOT PRESENT A THREAT FOR OUR AREA. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA ON SUN AS AREA BECOMES UNDER A COL AREA WITH SEA
BREEZE XPCD TO BECOME ACTIVE. HAVE REDUCED POPS IN THE EXTENDED
GIVEN THAT OPHELIA WILL LIKELY BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH
ONLY TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
Sux. Really sux. I need something to entertain me!!! I think I'm staying too much on my computer..
Think it will be Ophelia, or a storm to be named later?
the low-level center partially exposed to the southwest of the deep
convection...a 1200 UTC ascat pass and an observation from ship
pbsy indicates that the intensity has increased to near 50 kt.
Since the satellite presentation is currently not suggestive of
strengthening...it is certainly possible that the cyclone was
stronger than previously estimated. Latest analyses from UW-CIMSS
show that the storm is experiencing about 20 kt of
south-southwesterly shear. Global model guidance indicates that the
shear will not relent over the next several days...and the official
intensity forecast calls for slow weakening over the forecast
period. This is in close agreement with the lgem and SHIPS
predictions. It should be noted that the COAMPS-tc model...which
is part of the hfip suite and has been a good performer so far this
year...shows a faster demise of the tropical cyclone than most of
the other guidance
Originally I had it a Low, but as everyone knows, things change, and it "O" is at that place at the time I predicted...it would be nice, LOL... no really if i'm wrong, i'm wrong...
Better yet, why don't you tell us what a TUTT is?
We're waiting. :)
Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. It is an upper low in the tropics. These things are accompanied by shear and will inhibit tropical cyclone formation or intensification if the TC is too close.
Not so nicely organized, mid-grade tropical storm:
Poking trolls with sticks... sounds like fun! I may have to go un-ignore him and join!
Listen borther nobody gives two spits what you say. I can't count how many times you have been banned from WU. Unfortunatly you mange to find a way to wiggle your sorry arse back in here to stand on your soap box and profess your vast knowledge of tropical systems. I don't know if we could set up some type of vote to permenantly get rid of you, probably not. I just call them like I see them!
It is an ULL that is expected to get over Bahamas and close to E FL where it could potentially gain a low level reflection which could become a subtropical or extra-tropical low E of FL and heading NE.
Dude you and me both, sunny and dry weather sucks. I wish we had a 80 to 90% chance of storms 360 days year round! I live in Central Florida, we can get a lot of rain here for an extended period but then we get very dry periods too. Ive had 63.37 inches so far this year. Thankfully we are not below normal like last year, in fact we are actually above normal by 11 inches for the entire year lol. Last year we had a very lame 39 the entire year.
Maybe I should move the the equator, where they have a 12 month wet season! Every month is wet and active, some are wetter than others of course.
+100
Why in the world is it an issue for someone to have an opinion???
No wonder everyone decent is bailing.
Arctic ice melt won't ever cause sea level rise, Antarctic ice will...
Thank you for responding. I thought it was an upper low, just wanted to make sure.
Actually, if you google TUTT, you do get some hits:
TUTT The Universe Think Tank (TUTT Group)
TUTT Technologies United Trade Trust (Des Moines, Iowa USA)
TUTT The United Trade Trust (TUTT Group)
TUTT The Universe Trade Trust (TUTT Group)
He just has to pick one...
Viewing: 151 - 201
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index