Typhoon Roke batters Japan; Ophelia forms in the Central Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on September 21, 2011

Share this Blog
18
+

Typhoon Roke hit Japan near Hamamatsu at 14:00 JST Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. Roke brought sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 83 mph to the Tokyo airport at 5:25 pm local time, and a wind gust of 89 mph was reported at Shizuhama Airbase. Roke has dumped heavy rains of 155 mm (6.20") at Hamamatsu and 125 mm (4.86") at Tokyo. Damage due to flooding from Roke's heavy rains will likely be the main problem from Roke, as the soils over much of Japan are saturated from the passage of Tropical Storm Talas during the first week of September. Talas was a very slow moving storm, and brought extreme rainfall amounts of over six feet to some portions of Japan. Roke brought winds less than 25 mph to the damaged Fukishima-Dai-Iche nuclear plant northeast of Tokyo, and heavy rains of 189 mm (7.50") to Hirono, located 8 miles south of the plant.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Roke as it made landfall at 14:00 JST on September 21, 2011. The typhoon brought a large area of rainfall of 50 mm/hr (2"/hr) to Japan. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Roke taken at 3:55 UTC on Wednesday, September 21, 2011. At the time, Roke was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Ophelia forms in the Atlantic
Tropical Storm Ophelia formed last night in the Central Atlantic from the tropical wave (Invest 98L) we've been tracking this week. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia is suffering the classic symptoms of high wind shear, with the low level center of circulation exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation. An analysis of wind shear from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due to strong upper level west-southwesterly winds affecting Ophelia. We don't have any ship, buoy, or hurricane hunter observations of Ophelia's winds, but an ASCAT pass from 7:27 pm EDT last night found top winds of 45 mph in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Ophelia will be passing south of buoy 41041 late tonight. Water vapor satellite images show dry air to the the west of Ophelia, and the strong upper level west-southwesterly winds bringing high wind shear to the storm are also injecting dry air into the storm's core, interfering with development.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience moderate to high wind shear of 10 - 25 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. The combination of shear and dry air should keep Ophelia from strengthening, and could dissipate the storm, as predicted by the ECMWF and HWRF models. The Northern Lesser Antilles could see some wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph and heavy rain squalls from Ophelia on Saturday and Sunday, but right now it looks unlikely that the islands would see sustained tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph, since they are likely to be on Ophelia's weaker (dry) side. At longer ranges, Bermuda will have to keep an eye on Ophelia, since a large cut-off low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. should turn Ophelia to the northwest and then north early next week. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.

Ophelia is the 15th named storm this year, putting 2011 in 10th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Ophelia's formation date of September 21 puts 2011 in 4th place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 15th storm. Only 2005, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 15th storm. With only three of this year's fifteen storms reaching hurricane strength, though, this year has been near average for destructive potential. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 646 - 596

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Here we ******* go. Jesus Christ.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherWx:




I like to call people trolls?lol When was the last time I did that? btw, Basti11 was attacking many bloggers today and I was defending them. Why not work on not confusing me with other bloggers thanks.
You need to address your post to DJMedik91. thanks, FZ
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
500
Agree
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
500
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Gearsts:
I dont see what could stop it from getting stronger. Is a low on the map or the nhc still doesnt have it on the map?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Gearsts:
I dont see what could stop it from getting stronger. Is a low on the map or the nhc still doesnt have it on the map?
I don't remember seeing a low there yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DJMedik91:


You know what? For someone who likes to call people "trolls", you need to step back and look in the mirror. I have seen several comments from you today that can classify you as a troll.

Consistently posting comments that make fun of a poster or their comments are not wanted.
Who! Strike 1 WeatherWx!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
636. JLPR2
Up to 46mph from the ENE
Gusts to 58mph
Pressure down to 1008mb

Ophelia's center is getting closer, passing to the south.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting Neapolitan:
2011 is only the second season ever recorded to have 10 or more TCs that maxed out as tropical storms. More interestingly, if Ophelia fails to make it to hurricane strength, 2011 will have already tied 2005 for the number of tropical storms that didn't become hurricanes with 12. 2005 didn't reach that number until December 30 with TS Zeta.



we may be seeing some upgrades when post season starts has they did with cindy wish got upgrade too 70mph even no that still a TS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
633. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherWx:


probably will struggle with shear, but they will probably still find a way to blame it on AGW right DJMedik?


In the short term that isn't a problem.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
631. viman
99L over Vieques now, heading westward...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
630. viman
Hold on SJU, headed your way...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
629. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
I dont see what could stop it from getting stronger. Is a low on the map or the nhc still doesnt have it on the map?


Still nothing on the map.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting WeatherWx:


lol. What's the award for 4th place? Brain coral on a plaque?lol


You know what? For someone who likes to call people "trolls", you need to step back and look in the mirror. I have seen several comments from you today that can classify you as a troll.

Consistently posting comments that make fun of a poster or their comments are not wanted.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting TomTaylor:
Although it's not too hard to get within the ballpark or even beat the model consensus/NHC.
Although I've done better than the NHC in terms of intensity more than once (the most recent example being Lee), I would advise against entertaining statements such as these on a consistent basis.

In other words, don't become too arrogant.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
626. viman
Quoting viman:
St. Thomas airport now gusting to 46mph

Not bad for the little bugger, 99L kicking up a little dust...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
I'm just getting a vibe from this one, being getting it since early today.
I dont see what could stop it from getting stronger. Is a low on the map or the nhc still doesnt have it on the map?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
624. JLPR2
Quoting viman:
St. Thomas airport now gusting to 46mph


Impressive.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
623. viman
St. Thomas airport now gusting to 46mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting viman:
Heavy rain, serious cloud to ground lightning and thunder here in St. Thomas, airport gusting to 41mph


I wish I was there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thunder begin to roll at SAN JUAN thanks to 99L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
620. JLPR2
I'm just getting a vibe from this one, being getting it since early today.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting DFWjc:


Probably got sick and tired of the juvenile stuff that goes on this blog on a daily basis...IMHO
You are correct on what happened.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 473
reason why 2011 didnt have monsters was our vertical instability was very low. my final numbers for 2011 are 20 7 and 4. in june they were 16 8 and 4. in april 18 9 5 and in december 15 9 and 4
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




no hes not he been BAN from the blogs
He just has had a makeover and blends in. I have my suspicions who he is. Follow the quality posts. He will become apparent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribBoy:
Ophelia currently moving due west... maybe she won't make the WNW turn and move over the antilles..
Dream on dude. She is destined too follow Katia as i have been saying for days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
614. viman
Heavy rain, serious cloud to ground lightning and thunder here in St. Thomas, airport gusting to 41mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2011 is only the second season ever recorded to have 10 or more TCs that maxed out as tropical storms. More interestingly, if Ophelia fails to make it to hurricane strength, 2011 will have already tied 2005 for the number of tropical storms that didn't become hurricanes with 12. 2005 didn't reach that number until December 30 with TS Zeta.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
610. DFWjc
Quoting bambamwx:


He was run off like everyone else. Got mad, said some stuff and got banned


Probably got sick and tired of the juvenile stuff that goes on this blog on a daily basis...IMHO
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
pretty interesting discussion at 11:00.NHC not even hunting at a N turn at end of forecast they are saying she should turn NW after 3 days. I guess they are waiting until next advisory to bring her around to the N heading.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:
Looking healthy.... Gusts are almost hurricane strenght... (70mph)



se me parece a georges a su edad
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Too bad, night IR views do not show the COC... This was during the day....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hilary is going under RI it seems
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting CosmicEvents:
My spidey senses say he's here amongst us, hiding in plain sight. Likely using some user name that has nothing at all to do with weather or acronyms for weather. To keep a foot in the door, so to speak.
.
I also have to report that there's a strong high off to my right. The wind is blowing...from the EAST!!
He lost his temper at some trollsand he was banned.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 473
Quoting JLPR2:
I'm feeling 99L.



Decent, considering how it looks on satellite.


That frontal band just passed Carolina...
Here.... Fast moving Cumulus clouds N to S and lighting....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 SEP 2011 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 14:17:59 N Lon : 97:20:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 999.9mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.6 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : -4.6C Cloud Region Temp : -62.2C

Scene Type : EYE
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting FrankZapper:
Oh, he's still here, they say.




no hes not he been BAN from the blogs
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
599. JLPR2
I'm feeling 99L.



Decent, considering how it looks on satellite.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 21
Location: 13.7°N 46.2°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherWx:
what ever happened to StormW? Dont see him on anymore.
My spidey senses say he's here amongst us, hiding in plain sight. Likely using some user name that has nothing at all to do with weather or acronyms for weather. To keep a foot in the door, so to speak.
.
I also have to report that there's a strong high off to my right. The wind is blowing...from the EAST!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 646 - 596

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
22 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron