Typhoon Roke batters Japan; Ophelia forms in the Central Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on September 21, 2011

Share this Blog
18
+

Typhoon Roke hit Japan near Hamamatsu at 14:00 JST Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. Roke brought sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 83 mph to the Tokyo airport at 5:25 pm local time, and a wind gust of 89 mph was reported at Shizuhama Airbase. Roke has dumped heavy rains of 155 mm (6.20") at Hamamatsu and 125 mm (4.86") at Tokyo. Damage due to flooding from Roke's heavy rains will likely be the main problem from Roke, as the soils over much of Japan are saturated from the passage of Tropical Storm Talas during the first week of September. Talas was a very slow moving storm, and brought extreme rainfall amounts of over six feet to some portions of Japan. Roke brought winds less than 25 mph to the damaged Fukishima-Dai-Iche nuclear plant northeast of Tokyo, and heavy rains of 189 mm (7.50") to Hirono, located 8 miles south of the plant.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Roke as it made landfall at 14:00 JST on September 21, 2011. The typhoon brought a large area of rainfall of 50 mm/hr (2"/hr) to Japan. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Roke taken at 3:55 UTC on Wednesday, September 21, 2011. At the time, Roke was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Ophelia forms in the Atlantic
Tropical Storm Ophelia formed last night in the Central Atlantic from the tropical wave (Invest 98L) we've been tracking this week. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia is suffering the classic symptoms of high wind shear, with the low level center of circulation exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation. An analysis of wind shear from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due to strong upper level west-southwesterly winds affecting Ophelia. We don't have any ship, buoy, or hurricane hunter observations of Ophelia's winds, but an ASCAT pass from 7:27 pm EDT last night found top winds of 45 mph in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Ophelia will be passing south of buoy 41041 late tonight. Water vapor satellite images show dry air to the the west of Ophelia, and the strong upper level west-southwesterly winds bringing high wind shear to the storm are also injecting dry air into the storm's core, interfering with development.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience moderate to high wind shear of 10 - 25 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. The combination of shear and dry air should keep Ophelia from strengthening, and could dissipate the storm, as predicted by the ECMWF and HWRF models. The Northern Lesser Antilles could see some wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph and heavy rain squalls from Ophelia on Saturday and Sunday, but right now it looks unlikely that the islands would see sustained tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph, since they are likely to be on Ophelia's weaker (dry) side. At longer ranges, Bermuda will have to keep an eye on Ophelia, since a large cut-off low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. should turn Ophelia to the northwest and then north early next week. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.

Ophelia is the 15th named storm this year, putting 2011 in 10th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Ophelia's formation date of September 21 puts 2011 in 4th place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 15th storm. Only 2005, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 15th storm. With only three of this year's fifteen storms reaching hurricane strength, though, this year has been near average for destructive potential. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 596 - 546

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Quoting geepy86:

Working at payless.


where is that?
Member Since: December 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
Ophelia is suposed to start moving NW when she reaches 50W...
If not, we wil start seeing trajectory corrections....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
if a storm move in the same direction as the shear is doesnt effect it. example wilma 2005 made landfall in the yucatan as a 4 then weakened to a 2 moving ne towards sw florida. to her west is 70 knots of shear from the SOUTH WEST. she is MOVING NORTHEAST meaning wind shear wont be effecting her therefore thats why she strengthened to a 3 at landfall :P


good point buddy!
Member Since: December 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
ophelias center is starting to get tucked in under the convection. why? because now shear is 15 knots down from 20. if shear gets to 10 knots a run at hurricane stregnth is possible before ophelia meets the upper trough drapped across the greater antiliess and northern carribean :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting geepy86:

Working at payless.

LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking healthy.... Gusts are almost hurricane strenght... (70mph)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good Night Blog.
Good Night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherWx:
what ever happened to StormW? Dont see him on anymore.


If you Google his username, you will find him on his own site......don't know what happened here....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scooster67:
Can Hurricanes have last names?

Christ!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherWx:
what ever happened to StormW? Dont see him on anymore.


Do a GOOGLE on him. He still posts at a different site.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Night Blog.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695
Ophelia currently moving due west... maybe she won't make the WNW turn and move over the antilles..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can Hurricanes have last names?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherWx:
what ever happened to StormW? Dont see him on anymore.
Oh, he's still here, they say.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Very nice Rad... 99L hit the island Only with its Coc and without any thunderstorms...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
if a storm move in the same direction as the shear is doesnt effect it. example wilma 2005 made landfall in the yucatan as a 4 then weakened to a 2 moving ne towards sw florida. to her west is 70 knots of shear from the SOUTH WEST. she is MOVING NORTHEAST meaning wind shear wont be effecting her therefore thats why she strengthened to a 3 at landfall :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherWx:
what ever happened to StormW? Dont see him on anymore.


Lets just say it involved women, men, and FEET.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695
Quoting kipperedherring:
Magnifico!!


Roofline...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what ever happened to StormW? Dont see him on anymore.
Member Since: December 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
Necessito mas luigi18 !!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Explain?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MelbourneTom:


Really:

Link


Not always on, but with the systems this season, its been ON a lot when the systems are strengthening.

Probably because of the poor structure most TC's have taken this season.

P.S. I'm tired
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Well said, way to bring value to the blog.


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
571. JLPR2
42mph from the ENE
58mph gust
Pressure 1009mb



Buoy 41041 is now starting to feel Ophelia.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
99L is so small XD.
Good night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:
I could be wrong but based on the tightening of the model cluster, I think Ophelia is out to sea...



Lol nah. Threat to Mexico maybe, haha.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mrpuertorico:
going to be another bomb droping night again here huh like the other night around one am that was some serious thunder
And what does Mrs. PuertoRico have to say about that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Its always on, which is why I don't rely on CIMSS products like that, that much ;)


Really:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I could be wrong but based on the tightening of the model cluster, I think Ophelia is out to sea...

Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
Quoting luigi18:


Sunline asi mismo!
Magnifico!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:


In your file.


Oh, I don't have one.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695
Quoting sunlinepr:


I tied up my back wooden terrace roof with steel cables, ropes and all kinds of cables I could find.... It did survived the wind...
While Many other around flied away....


Sunline asi mismo!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


of the waves?


In your account
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:


How many photos do you have?


of the waves?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695
Quoting JLPR2:
That band of convection from 99L is bringing some decent weather to the Virgin Islands.

Seems like it's PR's turn in a few hours.
going to be another bomb droping night again here huh like the other night around one am that was some serious thunder
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Works fine for me:



^ waves from Hurricane Irene the day before the storm came in.


How many photos do you have?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gugi182:
If you live in PUERTO RICO you have to remember this date. At this time 13 years ago. Category 3 Hurricane Georges was making a direct hit on the island. 115 MPH winds with 130 MPH + gusts just remembering this date


I tied up my back wooden terrace roof with steel cables, ropes and all kinds of cables I could find.... It did survived the wind...
While Many other around flied away....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

true. i was hoping it would make it all the way to tx without affecting caymans like ivan.


Thumbs Up on that , my sis is visiting from TX, the drought there is terrible! Of course they don't need anything destructive!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting JLPR2:
That band of convection from 99L is bringing some decent weather to the Virgin Islands.

Seems like it's PR's turn in a few hours.


However, we, in the Extrem Northern Leewards didn't get anything lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MelbourneTom:
Date : 22 SEP 2011 Time : 004500 UTC
Weakening flag is on:



Its always on, which is why I don't rely on CIMSS products like that, that much ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What do you think about the potential of a Caribbean storm come the last week of September into the first week of October?


Limited model support right now, although the Euro has been hinting at something around 216 and last nights GFS showed a system in the eastern Gulf around 312. If anything is going to happen in the next few weeks, thats where it will be.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Date : 22 SEP 2011 Time : 004500 UTC
Weakening flag is on:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
549. JLPR2
That band of convection from 99L is bringing some decent weather to the Virgin Islands.

Seems like it's PR's turn in a few hours.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting stormpetrol:
Ophelia is moving <------ atm.

true. i was hoping it would make it all the way to tx without affecting caymans like ivan.
over and out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
what about it?

What I meant by the SW quadrant usually being weaker due to the positioning of the subtropical ridge is the fact that the ridge is usually to the NE of storms in the Atlantic. This means the NE quadrant will usually have the strongest pressure gradient force. The stronger PGF, the stronger the winds are in this quadrant, meaning there is greater surface convergence, more vorticity, and usually more thunderstorm activity occurring in that quadrant.

Keep in mind that is a general rule that only applies if the storm is to the SW of the ridge.


Isn't Ophelia still in close proximity to the monsoon trough? Wouldn't that inhibit development on the SWward side of the system somewhat?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695
If you live in PUERTO RICO you have to remember this date. At this time 13 years ago. Category 3 Hurricane Georges was making a direct hit on the island. 115 MPH winds with 130 MPH + gusts just remembering this date
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 596 - 546

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
39 °F
Overcast