Typhoon Roke batters Japan; Ophelia forms in the Central Atlantic
Typhoon Roke hit Japan near Hamamatsu at 14:00 JST Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. Roke brought sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 83 mph to the Tokyo airport at 5:25 pm local time, and a wind gust of 89 mph was reported at Shizuhama Airbase. Roke has dumped heavy rains of 155 mm (6.20") at Hamamatsu and 125 mm (4.86") at Tokyo. Damage due to flooding from Roke's heavy rains will likely be the main problem from Roke, as the soils over much of Japan are saturated from the passage of Tropical Storm Talas during the first week of September. Talas was a very slow moving storm, and brought extreme rainfall amounts of over six feet to some portions of Japan. Roke brought winds less than 25 mph to the damaged Fukishima-Dai-Iche nuclear plant northeast of Tokyo, and heavy rains of 189 mm (7.50") to Hirono, located 8 miles south of the plant.
Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Roke as it made landfall at 14:00 JST on September 21, 2011. The typhoon brought a large area of rainfall of 50 mm/hr (2"/hr) to Japan. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.
Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Roke taken at 3:55 UTC on Wednesday, September 21, 2011. At the time, Roke was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Storm Ophelia forms in the Atlantic
Tropical Storm Ophelia formed last night in the Central Atlantic from the tropical wave (Invest 98L) we've been tracking this week. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia is suffering the classic symptoms of high wind shear, with the low level center of circulation exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation. An analysis of wind shear from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due to strong upper level west-southwesterly winds affecting Ophelia. We don't have any ship, buoy, or hurricane hunter observations of Ophelia's winds, but an ASCAT pass from 7:27 pm EDT last night found top winds of 45 mph in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Ophelia will be passing south of buoy 41041 late tonight. Water vapor satellite images show dry air to the the west of Ophelia, and the strong upper level west-southwesterly winds bringing high wind shear to the storm are also injecting dry air into the storm's core, interfering with development.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side.
Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience moderate to high wind shear of 10 - 25 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. The combination of shear and dry air should keep Ophelia from strengthening, and could dissipate the storm, as predicted by the ECMWF and HWRF models. The Northern Lesser Antilles could see some wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph and heavy rain squalls from Ophelia on Saturday and Sunday, but right now it looks unlikely that the islands would see sustained tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph, since they are likely to be on Ophelia's weaker (dry) side. At longer ranges, Bermuda will have to keep an eye on Ophelia, since a large cut-off low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. should turn Ophelia to the northwest and then north early next week. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.
Ophelia is the 15th named storm this year, putting 2011 in 10th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Ophelia's formation date of September 21 puts 2011 in 4th place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 15th storm. Only 2005, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 15th storm. With only three of this year's fifteen storms reaching hurricane strength, though, this year has been near average for destructive potential. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Well, one aspect of it may be.
The storms that trek across the Atlantic are becoming fewer and farther between. The so called "African wave train" is slowing down.
However, this is the time of year when typically we start to see increased activity closer to home in the Caribbean.
Home brew if you will.
Nice low forming there... gonna bring a lot of rain to N. FL it looks like.
It's drawing moisture across S. FL for sure. We've been getting rain on and off this morning with more coming as the day wears on.
That is right. Loud thunder in San Juan with plenty of lightening. That 99L low had a punch.
Nice wave coming off Africa..
Wonder if that could be a contender?
Also my comment #738, and yes. It's pouch P32L, and is developed to some degree by ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS. They all move it northwesterly for now, however, so it looks like--for now--even if it does develop, it'll stay way out over the open ocean.
Seems to be a common theme this year.
Now that you mention the models, I do remember seeing it coming across and curving out on a few of the runs.
It is fairly robust stepping into the water.
Incredible visual! The power of these storms is awesome.
ME TOO !!!! intensifying in category 5 and coming on SXM, with a 2 knots forward speed!
This may be the beginning of the storm system that would impact the east coast that Rob over at Crown Weather discussed Monday of Tuesday.
Not sure if it has enough time to organize and spin up considering its proximity to land.
It is pulling moisture nicely across Florida though.
yeah hopefully we will get some interesting stuff in October... something like 1999 JOSE! However cat 5 no..
Wouldn't want to be on a cruise ship heading into that storm. Wonder how they can avoid it, eff they are going through the Panama Canal? Healthy looking development.
EP, 09, 2011092212, , BEST, 0, 149N, 986W, 65, 994, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 160, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILARY, D
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/TampaSpin/show.h tml
GO LOW! Fill our aquifers that flow down thru S. FL!
Buoy 42003 is showing some increase in WND speeds (mainly due to convection in the area)
Interestingly enough WND DIR has been backing and now from the N:
Although SFC pressures are not falling yet. It would appear a weak low might be trying to get going.
pressures are rising, not likely
With 35 kts of shear I would say no.
Not likely at this time for sure, but if convection persists prior to further displacement to the NNE to NE then it might have a slight chance. Of course extra tropical or sub tropical in nature.
Read your blog... all true.
I think the low in the NE GOM could make a run... but not sure if it's a winner.
Saw the vorticity in SE GOM... maybe that could be the beginning of something.
When the MJO comes back around... could light up in there in a week to 10 days possibly.
Shear is rather High currently and does not appear to be going away. I doubt now that much can get started.
High Shear across most of the MDR not much can develop very well with this much Shear out there!
Looks like the NAM elongates it to the NE and then it just goes away.
Could bring some rain to some folks that need it in S GA though...
Big time.
Shear will behead anything getting across at the moment for sure.
Anything trying to get going now gets beheaded.
That fate awaits Ophelia I think.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY.
.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A DEEP LAYER SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AT AROUND 15 MPH. MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE MORNING THEN DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INLAND. LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SPREAD WESTWARD AND IMPACT THE INTERIOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS SHOWERS AND STORMS COME ASHORE THIS MORNING AND IN THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND QUICKLY BE ON TOP OF BOATERS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS ON THE COASTAL AND INLAND WATERS. BOATERS SHOULD KEEP A LOOKOUT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN SKIES FOR APPROACHING WEATHER AND SEEK SHELTER BEFORE THE STORMS ARRIVE.
We've been getting some nice brief showers followed by sun. Little white puffy clouds, blue skies...gorgeous weather here now. Have a great day everyone.
Ya she is in about 25kts of Shear now. Don't believe that will change too much and actually she might get a little less shear the further West she moves. Does not seem much in any kind of Atlantic Born systems will impact the ConUs much longer.
But, we certainly need to watch those born in the Caribbean and GOM which are not done yet. Got a fairly long road to go yet.
10 days... 10 days or thereabouts in tropical purgatory.
We're getting there... just looked at the MJO.. starting to creep around about then.
Figure by then the shear will probably loosen up and there will be some Caribbean mayhem in October.
CATL season I think is just about milked for all it's worth.
Maybe one more... could be the wave coming off Africa, but it'll either curve or get sliced up with shear.
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