Ophelia dies; Philippe, Hilary no threat; Nesat drenching the Philippines
High wind shear and dry air finally managed to kill off Tropical Storm Ophelia yesterday. The storm's remnants continue to fester a few hundred miles east of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, but dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots should make any regeneration of Ophelia slow. NHC gave Ophelia a 20% chance of regenerating by Wednesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed west-northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble any land areas. Philippe is the 16th named storm this year, tying 2011 with 2008, 2003, and 1936 for 7th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Philippe's formation date of September 24 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 16th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier 16th storm. With only three of this year's sixteen storms reaching hurricane strength so far, though, this year has been near average for destructive potential. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851. Philippe has a modest chance to become the season's fourth hurricane; the 5 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast gave Philippe a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Tuesday afternoon. Wind shear is expected to steadily increase today to 15 - 20 knots, limiting Philippe's chances to become a hurricane.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 2:25 pm EDT September 25, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary slowly weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has slowly weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. A trough of low pressure is expected to turn Hilary to sharply to the north on Wednesday, but most of the models do not bring Hilary ashore over Mexico's Baja Peninsula during the next five days. Since Hilary will be crossing cool water and encountering increased wind shear on its journey north, the storm is likely to be no stronger than a tropical depression if it does manage to reach the coast.
Figure 2. Microwave image from NASA's TRMM satellite showing the estimated rain rate of Typhoon Nesat at 4:56 am EDT Monday September 26, 2007. Rainfall rates of up to 0.8"/hour (yellow colors) were occurring along the southeast quadrant of the eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Typhoon Nesat nears landfall in the Philippines
Typhoon Nesat, a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, is just a few hours from landfall near Casiguran on Luzon Island in the Philippines. Nesat was expected to intensify to a major Category 3 storm before landfall, but the typhoon ingested a large pulse of dry air that got wrapped into the core of the storm, slowing down intensification. The typhoon still has time to intensify into a Category 2 storm, but Nesat's wind and storm surge will not cause major devastation. Heavy rains from Nesat are a major concern, though. Recent microwave satellite images (Figure 2) show rains up to 0.8" per hour falling along the southeast quadrant of Nesat's center, and heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches will cause significant flooding in the Philippines. Nesat will lose strength during its crossing of the Philippines, but is expected to regain strength as it crosses the South China Sea before making another landfall near China's Hainan Island on Thursday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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i was thinking the same thing...
What about Polish?
i think the x has always been at 20
Same rule applies. A Czech will find Polish a breeze, but those with a Germanic/Romantic language background will tend to struggle more (and vice versa). Of course, it's not a uniform spread - depends on your linguistic capability.
A lot of it relies on pronounciation and grammar. Polish has a lot of diacritics (some of them sound nothing like the letter if taken from an English standpoint) and the use of 7 cases (yikes. Though, others like Estonian have more).
I wouldn't say it's the hardest, but it's a challenging one for sure.
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The rest of this week looks *beautiful* for us.
Highs of up to 26-27C (79-81F) in this area by Friday. The Indian Summer is coming (it may only be around for around 3-4 days, typical, but it's nice to have a blast of heat before the long march towards winter), yippee! Haven't had one the last couple of years and July and August's temps were yet again underwhelming.
Make your analysis....
Look at the satellite loop, bud, and you can see it's not moving west right now.
The West African Monsoon is in retreat mode. This retreat is demonstrated by the rainfall associated with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) moving more equatorward over Africa during the past week. The attached latitude-time plot, averaged over the longitude of Africa clearly shows this southward shift of the rainfall. This means that African easterly waves emerging off the coast of West Africa will become far and few in between with weaker amplitudes.
Possible anti-magnetic invisibility
You too could be Harry Potter!
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Pretty slow on the hurricane front. It doesn't feel like there's been sixteen storms. It almost feels more like an El Nino - one bad storm and a lot of noise. With the main exception of Irene (and perhaps a couple of others like Arlene), it's almost been like an oxymoron: 'The Hyperactivity of Inactivity'.
And it's no bad thing.
Blog update:
Tropical Tidbit for Monday, September 26th, with Video
- They have an agressive Weather manipulation program
- They can impose any project or idea they want to the population - Any movement against it will be demolished. No guarantee of human rights.
- They support Chinese hackers, being looked like a digital group of soldiers supporting the gov., with agendas like stealing info. from many countries. They have erased the White house webpage, placing chinese graffity there...
- They own nearly 30% our debt
- Many of our technologies and goods are being produced there. They give us a cheap labor force and they clone everything they learn to produce. You can find all kinds of brands cloned around the world. There is no way to impose Anti piracy sanctions to them
- They are in the search of stealing military know how and technologies from any country, willing to pay for such science. That's why they got their first stealth fighter, with 1st. generation tech. stolen from us, they have their first aircraft carrier, 3 other being built, their own GPS, more powerfull than ours. They got access to the Cobra helicopter that was down on Pakistan. With 1.6 billion population they can easily send 1 million soldiers anywhere...
- They have multiple Space launching sites and their own NASA...
- They are buying and taking control of all rare metals. Most of the 10 year worldwide steel production will end up in China
- Many countries are turning into supporting them (We already are)
And the facts list about this emerging Socialist - capitalist superpower keeps growing...
That sounds like when Rita and/or Katrina went thru. I thought the rain was relatively light? Is it a combo of tide and heavy ongoing rains?
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Link?
sorry the site i use wont allow hot linking
I think Ophelia still has a closed circulation!
type the link?
Here you go!
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Link
you can try but dont think it will open
try that
yes like i said earlier a very longs ways out
Nope, ERCOT, ie the owners of Texas electricity-plants (through their lackeys, the governor and the state legislature) have through many years vetoed making a connection to the NationalElectricalGrid...
...with the resulting inability to export electricity being why T.BoonePickens had to warehouse his wind-turbines to concentrate on gaining a (near)monopoly on the ground water contained in the OgallalaAquifer.
Without those interstate transmission lines that T.BoonePickens had lobbied for, there ain't nothin' in Texas that's even vaguely close to an having the capability to import electricity in any meaningful quantity.
And putting in that capacity isn't like making repairs after a major storm. Everything hasta either be built from scratch or replaced with NEG-standard hardware. eg A load-impedence mismatch could blow out both Texas and a significant fraction of the NEG power generating&delivery equipment.
Link
Currently on my CPU at work. The Laptop I use at home got the "Blue Screen of Death", so I have replaced it with a very nice HP. I had to creat a new account due to not remembering my password and an old hotmail account I deleted had my info. I will begin using my new WU account "VolunteerGaotor". Just don't wan't my new user date to autolable me as a troll.:)
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